Zeihan on Geopolitics

On this day: in 1604, Kepler's Supernova is the most recent supernova to be observed within the Milky Way. QOTD: "Russia is demonstrating ways, ​which, if employed directly towards a mega constellation like Starlink, could have an impact on their lifetime" and on ⁠the quality of service for all user

The Chinese are laying the groundwork for a new overseas military base in Laos. What makes this so special? Well, it would be the first foreign base that China can reliably supply without heavy dependence on other countries. And it would enable greater power projection across mainland Southeast Asia

The Alabama Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle are preparing for the landfall of Hurricane Isaias on Friday. When a hurricane is heading your way, knowing where the storm is going is only half the battle. Understanding where the greatest dangers are could save your life. Courtesy of El Niño, the Atlan

On this day: in 1895, Korean Empress Myeongseong [of modern-day Korea] is assassinated by Japanese infiltrators. QOTD: "These actions continue to demonstrate Iran’s ⁠intent to assert presence along key transit lanes and maintain pressure on transiting vessels," the [US Navy-led Joint Maritime Inform

With attacks throughout the Black Sea raining down from the Ukrainians and Russians, we're seeing the collapse of Black Sea shipping unfold. The latest attack was on a tanker just off the coast of Sochi. When attacks like this begin, it's no longer viable to put ships in the region. This is the end

On this day in 2001, triggered by the September 11 attacks, the Afghanistan War began when US and British warplanes started bombing Taliban targets. QotD: "The Strait of Hormuz is ​closed, and the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran ​have full control over it. This situation will continue u

While the fallout from the Ogallala Aquifer running dry will be rough, it's nothing in comparison to what will happen in the Punjab region of northern India. This region has relied on this aquifer for roughly 70 years. Between extensive drilling and mass amounts of individual extraction points, they

Peter Zeihan's first novel, Acceptable Range, is now available for preorder! We have a few offers that correspond to your level of Patreon Membership (Analyst Tier, Daily Reader Tier, or Free), so be sure to click the correct preorder link to claim your offer! Here’s a quick summary of Acceptable Ra

On this day: in 1923, the Turkish National Movement enters Constantinople. The Republic of Turkey would be declared on October 29, less than one year after the sultanate was abolished. QOTD: "If the military infrastructure ​of what is, in effect, NATO's leading country (the US) is moving closer to o

Ukraine's new memory drones are beginning to reshape battlefield tactics. For the first time in this war, we're seeing the frontline consistently move in the other direction. Since the Russians can't easily jam these new drones, they have to rely on physical interception...which isn't nearly as effe

On this day: in 1988, A Chilean opposition coalition defeats Augusto Pinochet in his re-election attempt. QOTD: “Brazil has had enough…this is the end of the era of the Workers’ Party,” Flávio Bolsonaro said of da Silva’s leftist movement in an elated speech after Sunday’s vote. KSA/ENERGY - Saudi E

A U.S. diesel ban could have reverberating consequences for the Russian energy sector, following the sustained attacks by Ukraine. Russia is now relying on places like Kazakhstan, Belarus, and India to supplement its fuel supplies. The Russians rely on diesel to transport damn near everything, so sh

Peter Zeihan’s first novel, Acceptable Range, is now available for preorder! Click the link below to preorder your copy and claim your free month of the Analyst Tier on Patreon! Be sure to preorder and redeem your free month of the Analyst Tier before Peter’s next Live Q&A on Friday, Oct. 23. Here’s

In an unusual turn of events, we have an abundance of good news surrounding the latest suspected terror plot in the Middle East. The involvement of an Omani national is a worrisome detail, however, given the Sultanate’s historical avoidance of Islamist militancy. Looking for something else? The link

On this day: in 48BC, Julius Caesar arrives in Ptolemaic Egypt in his pursuit of Pompey and learns of the latter's death. QOTD: “I know there’s always going to be issues where we might have some disagreement, but the approach that I’ve seen the government of Canada take is one where they genuinely w

U.S. troops have withdrawn from Iraq, putting an end to American military presence that began following 9/11. So, what's next for Iraq? It's not all sunshine and rainbows. Iraq is a deeply divided country, made up of three primary groups: the Shia Arab in the south, the Kurds in the north, and the S

On this day: 331 BC, Alexander the Great defeated Darius III of Persia at the Battle of Gaugamela. QOTD: “The primary purpose is to fund academic research that directly improves MSS technical capability for espionage,” MI5, Britain’s domestic intelligence agency, said in an extraordinary statement i

The Trump administration has extended an invitation to Putin to attend the G20 summit in Miami. There are several things to watch for, so let's break it down. First, Putin has to decide if attending the summit will result in his arrest based on outstanding warrants. Should he attend, we should keep

On this day in 1773, the Polish Sejm ratified the treaty that led to the First Partition of Poland by Russia, Prussia, and Austria. QotD: "Since summer, there's barely been a day without an attack on our energy infrastructure. But a combined ​strike of this scale hasn't happened since the end of las

The attack that shut down Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline (aka the Petroline) has been traced to Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. So, the prospect of defending Saudi energy infrastructure is nothing more than a pipe dream at this point. And given the very limited interaction between Iran and t

On this day: in 2008, The stock market crashes with the Dow Jones dropping a then record 778 points after the United States House of Representatives vote on the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act fails during the beginning stages of the Great Recession. QOTD: “On artificial intelligence, Argentina

SpaceX has completed its first (mostly) successful Starship test. The ship was able to reach orbit, deploy 26 Starlink satellites, and return home. And while there were some hiccups (engine failure on launch and reentry, as well as a crash landing) along the way, this was a step in the right directi

On this day: in 1066, William the Conqueror lands in England, beginning the Norman conquest. QOTD: "This result is not a vote against neutrality. Switzerland was neutral yesterday, it is neutral today, ​and it will remain neutral in the future," Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis said at a press confer

Fossil water is ancient water trapped in deep aquifers that take millennia to recharge, rather than the standard seasonal rainfall recharge. So, once you use it...it's gone. For regions that have become dependent upon fossil water for agriculture, this is a big problem. The Ogallala Aquifer currentl

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On this day: in 1768, the Unification of Nepal. QOTD: “We are going to send military assets, that is, soldiers, radar systems, and defense systems to protect this site,” Macron said in a TV interview on Thursday. However, he stressed that France was “not getting involved in any conflict,” adding tha

There are three major obstacles to expanding the U.S. electrical grid: generation capacity, permitting, and large power transformers (LPTs). Let's focus on LPTs today. Reindustrialization will require a massive expansion of electricity generation (and that's without further data-center growth). Larg

On this day: in 1877, The Battle of Shiroyama is a decisive victory of the Imperial Japanese Army over the Satsuma Rebellion. QOTD: “The crisis engulfing the judiciary has provided another advantageous twist for Mr. Bolsonaro. It has eclipsed revelations that he himself is being investigated by the

A ban on American crude or diesel exports isn't going to improve energy security; if anything, it will reduce domestic production. The problem lies in geography. Most U.S. production and refining is concentrated in places like Texas and Louisiana, which are quite far from the demand centers in Calif

On this day in 1932, by royal decree the dual kingdom of the Hejaz and Najd, along with its dependencies, was unified under the name of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. QotD: “I’m ready. I said it, I’m ready anytime when all the sides will be ready. I think we all need to move as quickly as possible,” U

The U.S. has just announced that it will remove any company or country caught servicing Iranian-owned aircraft from the U.S. dollar system. But these sanctions don't target the IRGC or regime; instead, they impact everyday Iranians in the hope of stirring up a rebellion against the regime. While reg

On this day: in 1979, the Vela incident—a bright flash resembling the detonation of a nuclear weapon--is observed near the Prince Edward Islands. Its cause is never determined. QOTD: The pair "crossed red lines and basic limits," [China’s state-run news agency, Xinhua] said, adding that their "polit

The AI race is in full swing. China is chasing digital sovereignty, but there's a glaring hole in that plan...it doesn't have the advanced manufacturing capabilities to achieve it. Here's the real kicker: nobody does. China might be a bit more flexible with its ethics and data manipulation, but that

Russia claims that the largest Ukrainian drone attack was launched over the weekend. The numbers are looking a little suspicious, though. Russia claims to have intercepted over 95% of the ~1,900 drones launched. You know what also happened in Russia over the weekend? Elections. And it's an awfully n

On this day: in 1993, Russian president Boris Yeltsin triggers a constitutional crisis when he suspends parliament and scraps the constitution. WORLD/UN/WHO CARES? - War, runaway AI and climate shocks to take center stage as world leaders meet at UN https://apnews.com/article/un-assembly-leaders-ai-

With Ukrainian attacks limiting Russian refining capacity and the Persian Gulf conflict restricting exports through Hormuz and the Red Sea, a diesel shortage is imminent. While the U.S. should be able to weather this storm without issue, the poorly connected domestic distribution system will be a ma

Cobalt is critical for modern batteries, but with over half of global production coming from the Democratic Republic of Congo, it represents one of the great geopolitical vulnerabilities. China controls most of the Cobalt mining in the Congo through coercive labor systems, so if China's system conti

On this day in 1948, Hyderabad formally surrendered to the Indian army following its invasion during operation Polo; the princely state was incorporated into India and later divided among several states. QotD: "I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not? It's

The recent series of U.S.-Venezuela oil deals is not quite as significant as it was made out to be. The main highlights are Chevron's investment and the U.S. putting its stamp of approval on NABEP. While NABEP lacks much of what it takes to expand production, U.S. backing gives the company credibili

The proposal for Canada's associate membership with the EU is nothing more than political theater. The EU has no idea what associate membership looks like, and building the system to support it would take years. Even if they sorted that out, bringing Canada into the EU fold is incredibly impractical

On this day: 1787, the United States Constitution is signed at Independence Hall in Philadelphia, bringing the Constitutional Convention to an end. QOTD: "We knew there was always a chance that we would be punished after these four years of (government) cooperation, but I didn't think the drop would

Hear me out...everyone has been yelling about AI the past few days, and the reality is that everyone is probably right, but it probably doesn't really matter anyways. Let me explain. When every industry leader raises concerns about a technology potentially becoming dangerous, it's probably a good id

On this day in 1810, Mexican priest Miguel Hidalgo y Costilla rang his church bell and issued an impassioned call to arms against Spanish rule. Known as the Grito de Dolores, his cry helped ignite the Mexican War of Independence. Hidalgo was captured and executed the following year. QotD: "I said we