How To Ban Diesel Exports || Sept 24, 2026

Amending the Jones Act could fix a lot of America's distribution problems, but nobody will touch it because the special interests that own much of U.S. domestic shipping protect their own.

Don't you think that US is on the way to compromise its unipolar world status....? As already found a decline in the NATO....

Mr. Rocketman, Thank you for your reply. Sometimes the best way to “reach someone” is not to “tell them what to think” ….. but to ask them to answer “the question “ and let them realize the answer. Otherwise, there are people who can never be “reached”.

Woww, so much winning, I assume you're tired of winning already, but there's two more years of such winning 👏🏻

Did I miss a part of the equation about storage? Seems like we were just talking about the strategic reserves being depleted. Crazy question : can we store a unrefined product and call it reserves?

I’m confused. I thought the export ban was supposed to be international. Was Zeihan saying Trump wants to ban a piece of interstate commerce?

I sort of expected more of an economic discussion on this. If I understand things correctly (always questionable) the US refineries are able to refine more than enough diesel to supply the US market and still have sufficient capacity to export some to other countries. I thought that the high diesel prices we are seeing are purely market driven. Diesel supplies from Russia, middle east, and ??? (drawing a blank) are significantly reduced right now. That makes the US one of the few dependable suppliers right now. And so foreign demand is driving up prices. And it's not like the refiners are going to sell diesel at reduced prices in the US when they can get more $$$ selling it abroad. And so they charge essentially global rates in the US because they can. And that is driving the consideration to limit or ban exports of diesel. Seems as though banning exports of diesel would really screw over the rest of the world right now... hmmmm... planned?

Who says that crude or refined products like diesel have to have a complete ban on exporting. Trump could implement a partial restriction on diesel exports of say 25-33% and see what happens to domestic retail prices. There should be sufficient distribution capacity for this partial restriction on exports.

How are we distributing the diesel now? Why can’t that continue?

Trump wants to ban diesel exports in order to pressure EU and East Asia into helping with opening the Strait. He doesn't care that will just make things worse for the rest of us. Come-on midterms.

Thanks for covering this. Seems like we need to thread a needle to get out of this only majorly broken for a long time and the time to act is right was a looong time ago but now is second best and the person taking the reigns on this one is the trump administration.

...I think you might be underestimating the political backlash "re-commercializing" inland waterways would bring. A coalition of angry Greens, recreational boaters, property owners with river views, property developers assembling or building waterfront high-ticket housing and urban parks & recreation departments would be interesting to watch.

Repeal the Jones Act. That by itself would have a huge positive impact on the US Economy.

Why doesn't the U.S repeal the Jones act?

I guess you guys don't do research anymore. 1) The Jones act for fuels and crude is suspended until November. 2) they are talking about a 90 day Diesel only ban on exports. Not a permanent one. 3) No one has said anything about banning crude exports. So yes they can easily transport the fuels by water. US fuel storage will get refilled before we start exporting again. We would create a buffer. And prices would drop in the short term for a bit. But even if they were to ban Crude and Diesel both for 90 days. We could just refill the reserves, that everyone keeps complaining about, during that time.

Elsewhere I commented on the Jones Act. We have been processing our shale output by mixing it with Canadian and Venezuelan crude. Trump is "fixing" Venezuelan and he should pull his head outta his ass and keep that flowing. Short term refinery issue solved.

Ok, we do have significant pipelines in America that move products. Arizona is supplied by the Gulf Coast. The biggest problem is the environment required formulas for fuel. See CARB gas in California and Maricopa County. Plus boutique diesel in CA. We have no problem with our internal distribution of products, we have a complicated system getting tremendous adverse external impact from the world market demand

Just because it would be idiotic and counter-productive, doesn't mean Trumpstein won't do it.

This type of supply destruction would be like closing off another half of the volume getting out of the Persian gulf for the rest of the world. The United States exports like 1.5 million barrels of diesel fuel and the destruction of that much US production would also destroy a good chunk of our gasoline production. We should fully expect the Trump administration to do this, all the experts told Trump and Hegseth before starting the civilian butchering campaign in Iran that Iran would respond by closing the street and sending oil prices through the roof… Why would their mentality change now?

Good analysis thanks

I don't understand how banning diesel exports causes internal US distribution problems. If it can get there now, why all of a sudden will it not be able to get there?

None of the solutions happen in a week do they? How long for diesel? A couple years?

That's funny: this discussion is directly related to one of my current strategies in the market...put options on unp, general dynamics, kirby corp, and going long on coastal refineries Phillips 66 and PBF, tank car manufacturers Trinity, Greenbrier, GATX, western corridors though BNSF, and marine midstream terminals enterprise and energy transfer. Most everything is decent value, this is not financial advice.

As one of my professors one said: “Sometimes you have to go out on the balcony and take a long look”. So….. Has the Trump administration and the Republican Congress done anything good for America?

Use dpa and congress to set a minimum domestic refined supply of diesel of 4 million barrels per day at reasonable markup of whatever is decided. That still leaves 1.5 million barrels of refined diesel and similar distillates to be exported at extremely high prices. The United States should be moving towards a bifurcated energy market. One price for U.S. and one for everyone else. We already get below market prices for Canadian and Venezuelan crude to blend with our light sweet. Energy is the lifeblood of any industrial economy and cheaper energy means more U.S. development.

Colonial piple moves at 5 mph Its like walking speed

Do not ban exports. Tax diesel exports and use the proceeds to build refineries.

What areas of the world refine (US) light crude? Are they close to areas that produce heavy crude? Wouldn't the investment in a time shift for refiners around the world make more sense?

For every (human) problem there is a solution that is simple, obvious and wrong...

If the Jones Act were repealed, how and why would shipping change? What infrastructure would have to change, and how?

I can imagine Trump falling asleep halfway through this short video explainer...

Stupid is as stupid does seems to be this administration’s guiding principle

Thanks Peter, didn't see that explanation coming. Live and learn.

While it would make us more isolationist, having our advanced refineries switch from dirty crude to clean would mean that the rest of the world would now have more dirty crude they didn't have a way to process. If we need more enemies this seems like a very expensive way to create some. Alternatively, perhaps we could not destroy another chunk of the global energy system.

Repeal the Jones Act which is NOT something that Trump did. Nor did he set up most of the underlying issues we have. It is inarguable that he's a fool and a bull in a china shop but he didn't CREATE most of our underlying issues.