U.S. Sanctions on Iran Take a New Approach || Sept 23, 2026
The U.S. has just announced that it will remove any company or country caught servicing Iranian-owned aircraft from the U.S. dollar system. But these sanctions don't target the IRGC or regime; instead, they impact everyday Iranians in the hope of stirring up a rebellion against the regime.
While regime change is unlikely, the effectiveness of these sanctions will largely depend upon Chinese adoption. Without Chinese goods, Iran would be in quite the pickle. And we might even find out China's stance in the coming days, as Trump and Xi Jinping meet in Washington.
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Comments (28)
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Peter once again is total FOOL!!! He is in Stage 4 TDS!!
Revolutions do not occur when a country is in hand-to-mouth survival mode. They occur when there has been an extended period of growth and then there is a real bad downturn but not yet to the point I mentioned above. This has been called the J curve of Revolution (rotate the letter J 120 degrees counter clockwise and you have the line that describes when revolutions might occur). That doesn't describe Iran. Furthermore there isn't anyone in Iran who gain gain the Support of the population and lead a revolt -- they're all dead. Which should mean the only chance for regime change is an organization with a lot of guns and AFAIK that doesn't exactly describe the Iranian Army. So like most plans from Trump the notion of getting an Iranian regime change is pie-in-the-sky Trump-B.S. It just isn't in the cards.
How can a people be expected to rise up if they are unarmed? We've seen on multiple occasions, what happens to unarmed protesters in Iran. They get killed. If you want the people in Iran to rise up against the current government then you might have to go back and look at what the CIA did in the 1950s. Though it still seems like a long shot for "the people" to overthrow the current Iranian government, armed or not.
This is exactly the opposite of historic U.S. policy, which is to grant licenses to repair Iranian civil aircraft, on the theory that planes falling out of the sky is a bad thing.
Hey Peter, given your background, did you know that Xi Jingping has friendly ties with Iowa? This relationship traces back to his first trip to the United States in 1985, when he was a little‑known county‑level official from Hebei on an agricultural exchange. His delegation spent several days in Muscatine, where Xi stayed with Thomas and Eleanor Dvorchak, sleeping in their son Gary’s University‑of‑Iowa‑vacant, Star‑Trek‑themed bedroom. The visit left a deep impression on him: it was his first extended exposure to American farm life, small‑town hospitality, and what he later described as his earliest “face‑to‑face contact with ordinary Americans.” The Muscatine families who hosted the delegation remembered him as curious, polite, and unusually attentive to the details of Midwestern agriculture. When Xi returned to the U.S. in 2012 as China’s vice president, he made a point of revisiting Muscatine and reuniting with the same group of Iowans nearly three decades later. Despite a tightly choreographed diplomatic schedule, he carved out time for a private gathering hosted by Sarah Lande, greeting his old hosts with warmth and telling them, “You are the first group of American friends I got to know.” The Iowa connection has since become a symbolic touchstone in China’s narrative of people‑to‑people diplomacy — a reminder that one of the world’s most powerful leaders once spent a few formative days in a Muscatine split‑level, learning about corn, hogs, and the rhythms of rural America. Sometimes, humanity breaks through.
Xi Jingping of China retaliated to Trump’s first term tariffs, by putting tariffs on soybeans and pork. 92 Percent [$23bn] of Trump’s China Tariff Proceeds Has Gone to Bail Out Angry American Farmers https://www.cfr.org/blog/92-percent-trumps-china-tariff-proceeds-has-gone-bail-out-angry-farmers As a result, family farm bankruptcies in the US went up by 25% during the Trump first Presidential term. China has turned to Brazil and Argentina for soybeans, and that business is not coming back.
What could go wrong?...
EIA Crude Oil Inventory the key takeaways from today’s data. • Distillate inventories fell again, underscoring the challenges faced by the Trump administration to address soaring pump prices. Unexpected refinery shutdowns, caused by power outages, added to the strain. A few minutes ago Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Trump administration is working with refiners to voluntarily curb their exports of US diesel as an alternative to an outright ban on diesel exports. • The 2.97 million barrel build in commercial crude stockpiles was bigger than the 1.8 million barrel increase seen by the API on Tuesday. A slump in refinery runs, along with weaker exports, help to explain the build. • Despite the drop in crude processing, they hit an all-time high on a seasonal basis nationwide. That’s a testament to how hard refineries are seeking to run amid juicy margins. --Lucia Kassai Oil Trading Reporter
When the technical term is "shitshow" you know it's going to be entertaining. 🤪🤪🤪
I hate to think it Peter, but you make the chaos of ignorance sound fun to watch.
Well, it kinda is, from a safe distance. Same reason people go to NASCAR races, rodeos, bullfights and circus trapeze acts.
Peter what are your thoughts about the Greenland deal that was signed the other day in the UN?
Add in Putin and you can have 3 blind mice. What could go wrong
Part is wrong. Trump has information from new more trusted ( non bias) sources
You mean hees new Rooshian friend is paying for hees son’s vedding?
Some like their cucumbers pickled
One more point. Nuclear weapons is 1940s technology! They all already have them. So we must stop “tilting at windmills” to change the here and now!
And what would this administration do if Iranians rose up? Look at our history. T & Co. has already promised aid that went away…. Look at how we abandoned Afghanistan… twice. That area of the world is untenable! The best thing we can do is get out completely…now! Let them solve their problems on their own… especially Israel.
By far my favorite subject is when he talks about China! It really gets me excited for a show. Sometimes the Super Bowl is a dud. Hopefully it's a dud this time too. But on the off chance it's a spectacle.
If making life harder for a country's populace caused them to rebel, Americans would have risen up against this administration already.
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It is soo American to sanction so people will rebel because can not go to vacation, school or gas is $6. 1. We bombed a girl school as one of the first operations we did 2. Israelis killed their supreme leader in the days of religious celebration (with his family and many others) 3. Us and Israelis bombing complain killed thousands (tens of thousands ??) in Teheran alone - probably the only place where liberal minds are (not sure if only one someone can correct). Don’t you think people regardless their view on IRGC will be kind of … pissed ? At us and Israel. Those are proud people , highly educated population with thousands of years of statehood (as far as I know the do not have Independence Day at all) - they will eat dirt, burn curtains and wooden floor in apartments to worm up, just to wreck the presidency and both enemy to them states . Or damage that much that for the next centuries none dares even think to attack their country again. I would be really shocked if after all if what we have done to the population they will rebel against their own hateful or not state.
I think your main point is that, after the harm civilians have suffered, you would be shocked if Iranians rose up against their own government... not to mention they are not the ones with guns. The U.S. and Israeli attacks may strengthen resistance to outside powers instead of sparking an uprising. I agree. We’re in an awful position. But we can’t leave out the Iranian regime’s decades of support for terrorism directed at its neighbors and Western interests… namely the U.S. That history matters. It also doesn’t mean Trump and his team of bozos were right to start bombing Iran. There was simply no strategic thinking behind that monumental mistake. The ramifications of which we’re going to be living with for years.
"What time is it Kids?"
I well remember being 7 years old a sitting in the Peanut Gallery of the Howdy Doody Show , and here I am 75 years later; back in the Peanut Gallery.
This thesis of Zeihan's that Xi and Trump have no "awareness" of "what's going on in the world" always strikes me as really hard to believe. How could that be? It feels like a stretch that because the government "teams" that traditionally informed each office (Chairman and President respectively) were "gutted", that ergo neither man has any actionable insights or information about the "world" and specifically the US/China relationship?
It's not just what Peter thinks. It's the evidence of their actions and words. Both men display a staggering lack of awareness of their country's needs and the world in which they exist in their rhetoric and policies.