The Diesel Shortage Hits America || Sept 21, 2026
With Ukrainian attacks limiting Russian refining capacity and the Persian Gulf conflict restricting exports through Hormuz and the Red Sea, a diesel shortage is imminent.
While the U.S. should be able to weather this storm without issue, the poorly connected domestic distribution system will be a major source of problems. Unless the U.S. can move away from its heavy reliance on diesel trucks for shipping, the next 18 months will be full of shortages and rising transportation costs.
Looking for something else?
The links below will take you to the Zeihan on Geopolitics YouTube page, each of our social media channels, info on how to purchase Peter Zeihan's books, our website, and more. Click the box to navigate to your desired page.
If there is still something else that you need, the helpful links tab below will direct you to anything you might need. This includes the Patreon support page, how to submit a question for Peter, and more.
Comments (38)
Trump suspended the Jones act temporarily. California brilliantly closed their two most important refineries last year. And have kept an important oil harvesting pipeline closed for a decade. The sales end of the supply chain, run by Democrats has been holding fuel prices higher relative to barrel cost, than at any prior time in history. So you confidently forget to connect certain dots.
As usual...Peter is wrong on many of this statements. Diesel prices are being impacted by Zelenskyy droning 2/3 of Russian refineries. Russia has stopped all exporting of diesel. US may also stop all exporting of diesel due to Zelenskyy. Non-Iranian oil shipments thru the strait are almost back to same level as before the war. Gas prices will be dropping quickly.
The scientific term is FAFO ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Peter, why don’t you pull a Jon Stewart and lobby Congress to amend or repeal the Jones Act?
The Jones Act covers a lot more than ships. Do we want British Air or Air France flying from New York to Dallas to LA picking up passengers along the way? No problem, just lay off more Americans. Maybe Air China? We lived in a world where unfettered transportation was just a normal thing. Just like building back our critical metals refining and a thousand other critical manufacturing plants, our shipbuilding and seafaring industries will also need building up. They sure won't build up without the Jones Act!!
The US despite abundant resources and geography, still accumulates protectionist, rent seeking laws through ordinary interest-group capture, the Jones Act being a durable example.
Suspending the Jones Act is all well and good, but like the foreign made networking router ban, it won't spur any real capital investments until two things happens: 1. Congress repeals or revises the Jones Act. I don't see that happening. The Act is full of language that conservative media will use to stop any action on changing this Act. 2. Congress pays the private sector to make the capital investments in shipping, manufacturing, etc. Note: If anyone things the wealthy are going to rebuild our industries when stock market returns are better and more reliable, you are wrong. Why wait five years or more for a profit when the stock market gives the wealthy profit today and every day? "Fuel outages are normal?" Not since I was a child back in during the oil embargo. SMH.
Peter's expertise is the energy field, so it surprises one greatly that he is unaware that the Colonial Pipeline that runs from TX to the NE has multiple intervening storge and distribution depots in MS, AL, GA, SC, NC & VA about every 60-100 miles along its route. It also has several trunk lines up into TN. Plus, there is the Colonial Pipeline from LA thru all the aforementioned states up to DC. No, Peter, the SE states (other than FL) do not need a repeal of the Jones Act (which should be done anyway) in order to be supplied with diesel or other refined petroleum products.
The Jones Act didn't shut down the west coast refineries. The Democrats did. The Californians decided they didn't want dirty diesel. Bad decisions have consequences.
The Jones Act was discontinued by Trump for a while due to the Puerto Rico hurricane. Has it changed?
It is legal to ship oil to the US Virgin Islands, which had the world's largest refining capacity, and then ship the resulting diesel to California, all using foreign vessels. The refinery has been offline for over a decade. https://claude.ai/share/450694f6-a2fe-418c-a124-29076613c06d
could the jones act be in place as a national security measure?
The main use of diesel in my town seems to be single passenger unloaded commuting. DODGE RAM is most popular. Ford EcoDiesel. Special mention: VW TDi, Chevy, etc. Applications: lawn service. Roofing crews. Mobile dog grooming, Parking lot resurfacing... Paying customers coming and going at $7.40/gal, no shortages.
I'm not sure we really want Chinese Cosco vessels controlling the intercoastal shipping in the U.S. The reason for the Jones Act cabotage provisions is a national security one - our internal transport networks should not rely on foreign owned, foreign operated (often foreign-spy-equipped) hulls. If shipping is really the cheapest transport mode then operating on American hulls paying American wages should be fine. The California / West coast case is a complicated mess. California refineries are tuned for Alaskan crude, but Alaskan crude is close to Middle Eastern medium crude. With the Middle East off-line, the Pacific rim demand for Alaskan crude has exploded. That's part of what has been bidding up West Coast costs. Jones Act or no Jones Act, it's only going to get worse since we're in a super El Nino year and the Panama canal is already running low on water and cutting ship transits, especially the new Panamax lane that takes the big refined product tankers. Just wait until tankers using diesel (or bunker fuel, which is also in short supply) have to go all the way around Cape Horn to get from the Gulf Coast to California.
The Jones act is suspended on fuels till November. So...What??? https://www.lpgasmagazine.com/jones-act-waiver-boosts-fuel-shipments-to-east-west-coasts/
I worked in the Philly sunoco refineries for several years: i thought they refined diesel.
They do, I think. The upper Midwest has refineries fed by the Canadian pipeline network, so we're not seeing shortages. At least not until Canada gets so annoyed with us that they start shipping crude out of the Great Lakes to anybody but us.
I've asked this question before: who, specifically, is blocking a repeal of the Jones Act. Clearly someone's ox would be getting gored.
Maybe the trucking industry? Oh, and all those millions of US maritime sailors? Oh, wait ... oops. 🙄
Interesting timing of a combination of massive temperature swings, availability & costs of oil & gas vs the move to electrification. Little can be done short term, but long term strategy of continued reliance and expansion of O&G, particularly in terms of energy independence?
Well, I’m glad our farm filled up the tanker about a month ago for all of our harvest needs… It’s incredible the price of fuel has doubled thanks to the war of choice by the godless Zionists… Should we send the bill to Donald Trump personally or to the Israelis?
the Jones act accounts for about a 3% increase in the cost per barrel delivered. hardly a deal breaker. The Jones act does need to be repealed; but that will be one more blow to the American ship building industry, and one more blow to the idea of bringing jobs back to the USA.
We need to relax low sulfur diesel regs to up capacity and build diesel refineries with the urgency in which we fought world war two.
I have strong opinions of Trump, but one hope I had was he would use emergency declarations to build pipelines, refineries and nuclear power plants. This would have been a positive legacy for him and positive for our country. Instead we have a ballroom.
Duh…. It’s Cato Institute
Wow, I just checked…. according to Kato, the waiver of the Jones Act has dramatically made a 130% increase in intra US water transportation. Peter, check your authorities.
I’m not sure if you are aware, but the cost of passing through the Panama Canal has risen 100 fold in the past few months.
This one is full of hyperbole, but think the basic analysis is sound. Colonial pipeline has branches throughout the southeast and Jones Act has been suspended, as many others have pointed out, but it's still a long term policy challenge that businesses have to plan around.
FYI the Jones Act was waived on March 17 for 60 days with the most recent extension of 90 days commencing August 13, 2026.
Peter, the facts Sal points out regarding your position on the Jones Act fly in the face of your commentary in this video... IMO, your creds are taking a bit of a hit on with respect to this issue...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THFPqzpCx8Y FYI what about the current suspension of the Jones Act, which was extended to mid Nov.
Well, at least there's lots of hard data that people (or AI) in the future can make use of to say... Don't do what they did.
I would like to say, "Don't put a moronic malignant narcissist in charge." seems kind of self evident, but apparently not.
Of all of the emergency declarations that Trump is making, why not a suspension of the Jones Act? And since he is the most communist president we’ve ever had, will he ban export of diesel? Socialize some fuel? At nearly $2000 to refuel a semi truck… something has to give. And blaming Ukraine after starting a pointless and war of choice with Iran after firing all of the foresight people, I would go with Trump as the source of pain.
Trump did suspend the Jones Act, some months ago. Then renewed the suspension a month ago good for another 90 days https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-extends-jones-act-waiver-with-some-limitations-white-house-official-says-2026-08-10/
The 'defense' industry being the largest consumer of diesel.
❤️❤️
Woa, incoming Sal to misinterpret "changing the Jones Act" to "completely get rid of the Jones Act."
Explain please?
