Ukraine Strikes Hit Baltic Export Facilities || Mar. 24, 2026
The global energy trade has been taking hit after hit, and things might be getting worse. Ukraine launched a large drone attack on oil export facilities in the Baltic, proving they can disrupt Russian exports.
With the Persian Gulf effectively offline, losing Russian oil would be devastating to the global markets. Drone warfare continues to evolve and reshape the way these conflicts unfold, especially when targeting energy infrastructure.
I would expect Ukraine to continue these strikes, knocking out a large portion of Russian export capacity. Which means the global energy crisis could get much worse, very soon.
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Glad I have a purchase option at end of lease, on my leased EV.
Peter, maybe we need reconsider shorting EVs?
Yeah, lol. Looks like EV and renewables are the right idea. Maybe one day trump will be known as person responsible for switching the world to clean energy.
Clarification please. 2025 Russia produces about 9-10 mbd of which mol 4.8 mbd is exported. With the Baltic ports offline (and the other issues in the Black sea) are you saying Russian exports will go down to less than 1 mbd??? The market is indeed going to lose the bulk of Russian exports???? On top of the 20 mbd out of the Gulf?
I wonder how long it will take for gasoline to top $8 per gallon?
The last time I traveled through Europe petrol was priced by the liter. How does $2.00 a quart sound to you?
RECAP of the Michael Wolff "Inside Trumps Head" podcast: PART 1: Core framing is that the Trump/MAGA machine is running out of political runway, and the Iran war is the accelerant. Inside the White House, the entire mindset is now “how do we get to the midterms without this blowing up,” and the answer is…they don’t really have one. The war is creating a dual pressure: higher energy prices hitting voters directly, and more importantly, a growing sense within the MAGA base that Trump has drifted from the movement’s core instincts (especially on foreign policy). Wolff makes the point that this isn’t just a polling issue—it’s a turnout issue, and once enthusiasm cracks, the House is likely gone and the Senate comes into play. The bigger takeaway: there may not be a “political formula” that saves this cycle if the war lingers into the fall.
PART 2: Layered on top of that is a more structural fracture inside MAGA itself. Wolff calls it “competitive Christianity”—different factions (Carlson vs. pro-war voices like Hegseth) using religion as a political weapon to justify completely opposite positions. That ties into a broader point: Trump himself isn’t operating from a coherent strategy—Wolff argues he’s not “lying” so much as unable to process reality in a consistent way, which creates chaotic, contradictory policy signals (especially around the war). Meanwhile, inside the White House, you’ve got this surreal split focus: geopolitical crisis on one side, and Trump obsessing over legacy optics like the “ballroom” project on the other. Net/net: internally confused leadership + external pressure (war, energy, base fracture) = a setup where the coalition looks a lot more fragile than it did even a few months ago.
And we were going to host the FIFA World Cup this year. Wonderful. Here comes the bankruptcy of the American Tourist Industry for International destinations. Airlines, etc.
Don’t forget the huge find in Guyana and Chevron in the Cat Bird seat to repair the Venezuela mess ……. All in the US back yard
All this has me ordering supplies for my business asap.
Absolutely! And lots of TP à la the Covid shortages. 🥴
Peter has said for years that the US oil market would decouple from the world oil market. This would put a relatively low ceiling on domestic oil prices and a very high floor for the rest of the world. Many of the precursor actions to make this happen are in motion. How long until this prediction happens or does it ever really happen? I find it hard to believe that US producers would not sell to the highest bidder on the international market if the juice is worth the squeeze.
Which, of course, will continue to screw the rest of us.
I think it unrealistic to think the Persian Gulf oil won't return, even if not for awhile but it seems the world is quite the s**tshow.
Agree. This is the "too pessimistic" version of Zeihan rearing his head again. While oil flows out of all of the Gulf states, including Iran, are well below their 20mbpd levels, I don't imagine that they'll be going to zero. If it exports out of Hormuz cease forever, we should expect Saudi Arabia and others to build additional pipelines to coasts along the Indian ocean, Red Sea and perhaps to the Mediterranean Sea through Jordan and Israel.
Don't write Vladivostok off as a target. Maybe today, but Ukraine has proven time and again that very little is out of range. Perhaps today it is unreachable, but tomorrow...?
"Sea Baby" weapons would work there. It's just a matter of how to get them there. I would probably hide them on a shipping container in Odesa and sail them around until they were close enough.
The only question that needs to be intelligently asked and answered is, can the U.S. produce sufficient (whatever that means) oil to meet our own needs?
I don't think it's as simple as that. US companies will want to export to get top dollar rather than only having lower domestic prices. I'm not sure Trump would ever say no to them because they stand to make a lot of money
Anyone got a map of the exact position of the facilities in Pro-Morsi and Luga?
Asking for a friend?
It seems Ukraine has a lot of cards.
🇳🇴
But does it really matter if the days of shadowfleet were numbered in the first place? If they went after pipelines like what happened with the nord stream, that can have another impact. Like the Russia-China East Route Gas Pipeline Siberia 2 or the Turkish Stream on Black Sea.
There are a thousand tankers in the fleet. So far, by my count, they have grabbed fewer than 10.
the fact that you keep saying the middle east is not going to come back makes me really sratch my head.
Issue is that you are dealing with dueling death cults, if this thing lasts much longer, the only way this goes is the complete destruction of all energy infrastructure. Agree, that's a worse case and bleak scenario, but that's on brand for a PZ prediction.
There was an explosion at the Valero refinery in Texas too...
They say it was a broken heater, I'm not buying it.
Great shot by Ukraine. Congratulations!! Keep hitting it. Stay after the Russian oil, that's their blood. As for the world market, etc., the world should have stood up to Putin from day one. Instead it's been speeches and off loading war surplus goods to them. Ukraine is all that's in the way of Putin devouring much of Europe, maybe much of the world. Few care, why should I?
Well. Nigerian: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-23/dangote-ships-fuel-to-five-nations-after-reaching-full-capacity Libyans: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eni-discovers-over-1-trillion-cubic-feet-gas-offshore-libya-2026-03-16/
Two very different situations that will likely serve different client bases. Definitely a certain global, with both countries being colonial states that Europeans drew really, really, really bad lines around.