Iran Gets a Little Less Weird || Bonus Video
Trump has extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pumping the brakes on the war crimes he threatened to commit on Iran's civilian power infrastructure. Whether there were actually talks with Iran or someone within the U.S. government convinced Trump to back down, I'll take the good news.
Comments (35)
“culture eats strategy for breakfast”
Kerry
Dear Peter, does the presidents agenda have any affinity with John Carey when he was running in that Donald Trump is a flip flopper. Introducing this into the conversation, while it seems frivolous, might reach some of those voters who watch Fox News.
Although I worry that hegseth has gutted the upper echelon of the military to the point where they will follow what ever orders Trump issues, is there a chance that "they" told Trump that bombing civilian infrastructure would be a war crime and hense an illegal order?
That was either a very pissed off or very horny bird right near you! This is the time of year when magpies will buzz you!
We need to realize, the most important paradigms of Trump... 1) Flip your position constantly, so you can profit from insider trading:: This is why brinkmanship will always be peppered in with some fake assuaging and reassuring. He will give and rescind ultimatums. He will promise and renege on de-escalation. And whisper his vagaries into his son's ear to place bets before everyone else. 2) DO NOT END WAR BEFORE MIDTERMS. Or before he has stolen the election by crook. Because by hook he will lose. He will be jailed. He will be justiced right by the p***y. He does not care about oil prices, because he is already losing a fair election. He does not care about jobs, inflation or any of it because he has Epstein's gangly d*ck swinging over his head like a sword. Side notes: Iran might be in on this with him, because the primary engine of their economy just jumped 50% in less than a month. OPEC struggles to push oil above 95. But they have managed it without letting the gulf really benefit the most out of it. The war might just be GREAT for Iran.
Keep telling yourself that this is a win.... it is just a delay of game. Trump's statement about Mueller's death shows his dementia is bad enough that he can't repress his true concerns, power and revenge.
What's there for Iran to talk about? This idiot started a world catastrophe for no reason. The Iranians will want compensation and may not give way unless Trump resigns and America pays for all the damage. This war is FAR FROM OVER!
yep! but the reason is he is a dangerous narcissist wanting power... a CIA interrogator once said, they are the worst right after psychopaths but are much more common.
His obserd rages are too often without any consultation. What an idiot.
I thought he was the Businessman President, not the Cowboy President?
Saw that XOM had a 34% stake in one of the Qatari LNG trains that got hit. Wondering if some of the multinationals that operate over there started calling w “WTAF, DUDE?”
Why is Peter taking Irans word as gospel? Iran says no talks so we take that as gospel?
What's there to talk about? The idiot started a world catastrophe for no reason. The Iranians will want compensation and may not give way unless Trump resigns and America pays for all the damage. This war is FAR FROM OVER!
Also market manipulation and some ppl got rich off of it.
Sorry, but is just TACO Bully Trump getting called on his shit by the bigger bully who will not back down and calls out his lies in real time. Trump is out of plays. Which means he will lash out and then Iran will burn it all down around them
Is there a real chance here that Trump, ever out for a buck, is manipulating oil prices for his family's gain? Foreknowledge of his rants and a FOREX options account is all it would take to become very wealthy in a hurry.
He extended it by five days, so by Friday. Trump is pumping the market.
Thanks Peter for toughing that out while fevered. I hope you have an osha root source out there!
Hooray no war crimes today!!! I’d imagine our allies would have to take a definitive step back as well (Diego Garcia for example). Perhaps they put in a word. 🙄 Whiskey all round.
I love your stuff, so don't take this as overly critical, but just disliking something Trump says or does doesn't make it a war crime. Under both the 1907 Hague Conventions and Additional Protocol I 1977, targeting civilian power infrastructure is perfectly legal so long as the aim is to diminish the enemy's military capacity. I'm pretty sure you know this very well.
US can attack it if it is dual use infrastructure, but obliterating the national grid would likely fail a proportionality to the military advantage test. More likely would be localized attacks to substations, etc. Trump can likely get away with what he has said thus far, but it is not ideal to be on the record.
I have a feeling this is to drop their guard, and that they're still going to attempt to take kharg
General Jim Mattis was on Firing Line over the weekend, here's a recap: The market is likely overestimating the probability of near-term regime change in Iran. The regime is both fragile and durable — fragile in terms of popular support, but durable because it is willing to use extreme force to stay in power. Critically, Iran is fighting an existential, “total war,” while the U.S. is engaged in a limited conflict, which historically favors regime survival. At the same time, U.S. strategy appears undefined — Mattis repeatedly points to a “murky” end state — increasing the risk of policy drift, miscalculation, and asymmetric escalation (e.g., low-cost disruptions in the Gulf (mines, drones) driving outsized impacts on shipping and energy markets).
Part 2: Zooming out, this conflict does not appear to be resetting the Middle East structurally, meaning the geopolitical risk premium is likely to persist rather than resolve. The bigger issue is strategic: the U.S. cannot execute effectively without allies, yet credibility has been eroding, with Mattis suggesting trust could take years to rebuild (8-12 years). That opens the door for second-order beneficiaries like China and Russia while increasing the likelihood of a prolonged, volatile equilibrium rather than a clean resolution. Net/net: this looks less like a discrete geopolitical event and more like a durable backdrop of instability with persistent tail risk in energy, trade flows, and global macro positioning.
Looking forward to the future. as I sit here working on a new IT communications system to be based in Europe. While the biggest failure here is the tactical stupidity underway, the very long term strategic idiocy is the failure of the GOP to rein in monumental narcissism and nationalism. US media is yet to discuss the inflationary effects of these actions. EU will increase interest rates, and the US will have to either follow upwards (recession) or ignore (drop in US dollar). I've had enough of the stupidity. I'm out of the US in about 2 months, taking my manufacturing and IT companies to EU, including key employees. US operations will just be sales and marketing, with minor localized assembly. Expat Aussie spent 16 years in the US, ready for the EU, which is welcoming me with open arms.
Welcome WaterReNu! It’s good to be somewhere a bit more predictable isn’t it. Thank you for building out this infrastructure. We need to decouple ASAP.
Bird was going crazy
What are the odds that A) the five day delay is the amount of time they need to move marines in place to get boots on the ground and 2) the people they're 'talking to' don't exist as the iranians have claimed
Feels right
I remember last week when Pete Hegseth said there would be no mercy and we would take no prisoners… Also a war crime and from just a military standpoint a very stupid thing to say because that puts your opponent on what’s called death‘s ground… Where they are operating under the assumption that they’re dead so you might as well go out, taking as many of the enemy with you as possible. It takes a real stupid son of a bitch to say something like that because it gets a lot of American troops killed.
Someone's been listening to Sarah Paine. "Death ground" is a conceptual frame for historical outcomes. More practically, a tactic that can avoid this is simply allow for retreat corridors back to Tehran
T.A.C.O.
Trump always chickens out, but eventually lets loose: TACO BELL
First!
