Radio War Nerd #304 — World of Wars, Hot 'n' Cold: Ethiopia & Russiagate
Recorded: November 10, 2021
The War Nerd and Ames catch up on current war events: the hot war in Ethiopia, and the latest cold war follies as the Steele Dossier/Russiagate edifice continues it long slow collapse.
Total time: 1:28:57
Comments (33)
It would be interesting, and maybe very edifying for us listeners, to have Rania Khalek on to debate what's going on with Ethiopia. I'm a big fan both of Radio War Nerd and of her work so I'd love to hear the two sides thrashing it out. I get kind of sick of different factions retreating to their own corner and talking about how the other guy is wrong without talking to each other. Direct confrontation and debate might be very fruitful.
Sorry, but Piss tape real!
if we all believe in the reality of the pisstape, it will be made manifast by our combined psychic might
Great selection of bits about Russiagate! Really compassionate perspective.
Thank you Gentlemen, for another great World of Wars; replete with the insight and humour we've all come to expect. I was re-listening to your series on the Maratha Empire, where you'd said you must make an episode on that "Scary Guy" - Timur. Having just finished Justin Marozzi's rather middling 'Tamerlane,' I would love nothing more than a War Nerd treatment for history's greatest warlord: lowly origins, tribal treachery, kingdoms despoiled, towers of skulls, flaming camels, meglomaniacal arcitecture, battles of Napoleonic proportions, the heirs of Genghis bested, the Ottomans and Mamluks humbled, Et al. And all from the comfortable vantage point of six hundred years in the future. Who doesn't want that? In any case, keep up the good work! Also, thank you for introducing me to the works of Jack Vance. I am humbly obliged. 👍
Yes, "middling" is a good description of that book. I was gung-ho to do an episode on him until I read that. It seemed designed to make Timur boring, an odd notion for a book.
I mean, I get that there's some seriously bad blood, but in enumerating the russiagate naysayers the prominent "and some other people" comes off as petty. Though really my main concern with this is if people are still so sour, let's have everyone air their complaints! I'm a newcomer to all this so I missed out on the drama. But whatever it is it has to be better than jimmy dore vs Ryan grim.
Nice episode once again guys.
great stuff and last 15 minutes or so (russiagate fallout) is pure gold
Excited to listen to this on my drive home this weekend. Somebody pointed out something that I didn't realize recently and I wonder if you guys were aware of it either. Apparently before Abiy was in politics, he was head of Ethiopian Information Network Security Agency (INSA) which means he was an intelligence guy. This guy I was talking to went as far as to say he was groomed for the position of PM because of his experience. Not sure if this really is important but I just thought it may explain how the media blackouts were so powerful in TIgray.
Yes, it's true--and it's also true of Debretsion Gebremichael, leader of the TPLF. "He was sent to Italy by the TPLF and received training in communications technology. He led the team that launched the Dimtsi Woyane Tigray (The Voice of Tigray's Liberation) radio station in 1980. Debretsion, along with "General Santim", were famous hackers during the Ethiopian Civil War. They routinely hijacked, jammed and sabotaged the Derg's radio, TV and military communication systems."
I refuse to live in a world where the piss tape is not real
back on 2017 twitter it was easy to tell who was joking when they said THE PISS TAPE IS REAL and who wasn't, but nowadays I assume the only people saying it are the true believers. I'm never going back to check though.
Those people were joking about the piss tape guys Jesus lol
And apologies Mark, you should be taking your victory lap, posing for pictures, and gloating your guts out instead of refereeing nitpicky shitposters! Mazel tov to another notch on the belt!
Yeah Rania and Ben have been terrible analysts on the Ethiopia situation. Just super fucking lazy analysis, it’s just Africans so maybe they don’t want to do the leg work
Eh, you really shouldn't imply racist motives, that's f'd up. Rania and Ben have both done great and brave journalism. If they're getting this particular story wrong, that doesn't make them bad people.
What the feller meant was, "Piss tape is funny, thus I choose to believe piss tape is real"
im afraid the war nerds have run face to face with live "meme" and failed to perform the appropriate rituals to appease this foul spirit. also, the piss tape is real and it will be posted
So Ethiopia is the new Yugoslavia huh? I shudder thinking at how many millions will die
That's the real shame of it all. At the end of the day, doesn't really matter who lit the fuse on this powder keg, 99.99% of the miserable souls that will pay the price with their suffering and death are just trying to scratch out a living and couldn't care less about these power games.
Bleh, apologies for the crappy formatting and grammar, it's tough getting all this typed out on a phone...Yeah, I'm sorry guys, I just think you've really oversimplified this conflict, and discounting a lot of what TPLF has done in their years of power and the immediate provocation that lead to this conflict. I follow Ethiopia fairly closely and there was a huge wave of optimism when Abiy won. He really did seem to be trying to bring the country and region together, but by all accounts, his predecessors had spent the last 20+years exacerbating ethnic grievances to maintain their minority rule as minority leader tend to do. It was a monumental task and many in his coalition were beating the war drums out of the gate, demanding that he immediately move against the TPLF, but he resisted until they really forced his hand by attacking federal troops and running their own election, essentially taking the first move to break away, along with what many suspected - billions in looted federal funds. Abiy was already under enormous pressure to make a move, then they moved first, what could he do but immediately go all in? He already held back the tide, people were openly saying that he was feckless in the face of open provocation and that if he didn't make a move, he'd regret it and that was months before TPLF attacked federal installations! His detractors from a year or so ago before the conflict may have the last laugh on that point. At the same time - Grand Rennasaince Dam was well under way. Abiy was promoting it as a way to lift up the entire horn of Africa, not just Ethiopia. He was setting up schemes for cheap electricity for neighbors, and a way to begin lifting colonial yoke and lessen dependence on fossil fuels. It was really a progressive vision, but threatening to extension actors, including USA - no way the American state is backing some African dude talking about forming a regional collective, and Egypt didn't trust him or the dam at all. "Whiskey is for drinkin', water is for fightin' " as the apocryphal saying goes. I guess it's honey mead instead of Whiskey, but that's a side track. Any way, i just think it's way more complicated and there are definitely lots of regional and international players with knives out here. I'm going to go back and relisten to you past shows on the region, because I'm sure you covered a lot of this already. I'm the meantime, I thought this was a really great interview with a very credible journalist with real insight on the issues: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jeBsFcqAvhA and this one https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YeewxIz0edg
Maybe you missed all the previous RWN material on Ethiopia, Abiy, Tigray etc, but before Abiy sent the military/Eritrea/Amhara-paramilitary into Tigray, John had found much to praise about Abiy (with cautious caveats) in newsletters and on the show. We've also talked a lot about why other groups in Ethiopia have long held grievances against the Tigrayan powers-that-be, ie TPLF. If Abiy sent in the Eritreans and the Amhara paramilitary genocidaires merely to prove he wasn't feckless...well damn, that was about the most dementedly stupid thing I can think of. Not sure the word "feckless" quite captures it.
There is an extra outside element to the Tigray/Ethiopia situation which is potential Kenyan involvement. It's possible that they make an intervention that's enough to make it a stalemate, or head up an AU peacekeeping force on the understanding there will be new elections. The TPLF have been v cautious this week and my understanding is they're open to negotiation
If Egypt isn't involved, their military and intelligence services should be prosecuted for malfeasance. They have been so openly opposed to the Grand Rennasaince Dam, it would be just shocking if they weren't involved to some extent. And guys, I just totally disagree on the media coverage. This whole narrative that the federal government is dragging feet on supplying humanitarian aid doesn't seem to make sense, and the firing of UN whistle blowers seems to corroborate the issues https://www.change.org/p/reinstate-maureen-achieng-iom-chief-of-mission-to-ethiopia-reinstate-dennia-gayle-country-representative-for-unfpa
Randy was just yanking your chain, Mark.
If there was a gif which captured my feeling for Ames and Brecher, it would be that clip from the Hoff Twins where the liquor store clerk is describing the Hoff Twins' drinking habits at 1:50 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfu08ULFK88
I lost IQ points just by looking at the first minute of that.
RWN can have a little gloating as a treat
Regarding the war in Ethiopia, I was under the impression that the TPLF began this conflict in November last year by attacking the Ethiopian northern command and capturing the heavy weapons. To me it seemed that the TPLF were making a straight-up power play while using the noise of the American election as cover, but John says in this episode that the TPLF were responding to the imminent threat of a “genocidal” attack. I guess my question is how do we know for sure which side was the aggressor in this conflict? Also if anyone could recommend good sources for someone really trying to understand this war I’d really appreciate it.
This is a Tweet from Rashid Abdi @RAbdiAnalyst from October 21st, 2020, "Afewerki & Abiy actively considering military action to settle dispute with Tigrai. They are deaf to calls for dialogue, de-escalation. A war is coming. Eritrean troops making provocative maneuvers on border. International community indulged Abiy. It bears full responsibility." The TPLF attack was pre-emptive based on the certainty that the ENDF was planning with the EDF to invade.
In other news, another F-35 crashes! https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59323895
The Greatest Plane in the history of Greatest Planes