Why a Russian-Chinese Pipeline Won't Happen || Sept 2, 2026
If China and Russia are so buddy-buddy now, why don't they build pipelines across Siberia to bypass the Persian Gulf?
There are more issues than I can cover in this video, but here are a couple. Their recent cooperation is less of a friendship and more of a "the-enemy-of-my-enemy-is-my-friend" situation. Geography is the bigger problem, though, with thousands of miles separating Russian energy sources and Chinese population centers.
Even if a pipeline plan was put in place, neither side would want to pay for it, and Russia wouldn't have the technical expertise to develop it. So, unless maritime shipping goes completely offline, this pipeline isn't happening.
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Comments (32)
A pipeline from Siberia to China is not impossible, one already exists. The Power of Siberia is an existing 56" natural gas pipeline from central-eastern Siberia to northern China. Construction began in 2012 and it was completed in 2019 with a capacity of 61B cubic meters per year. The pipeline runs from Yakutia to Primorsky Krai, crossing into China at Blagoveshchensk. (Blagoveshchensk made the news last year by requiring Mandrin for all public school students.) A proposed extension, the Power of Siberia II, has been in the planning stages since 2020. The sticking points appeared to be who pays for it (naturally) and Mongolia's resistance to it. There were signs of life in 2025, but I don't know if any actual progress has been made. China consumed 405 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2023, 58% produced domestically. China's LNG imports are predominantly from Australia and Qatar (98BCM) and some from the US (4.3BCM). https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/PDF/IF12748/IF12748.2.pdf
The points Peter makes about Russian technical skills (or lack of them) is very significant for the longer term (whether economic or military)
Great lake, was just up there a month ago, couldn't believe how warm the water was.
Where Peter was when making this video is really in the boonies of Yosemite. There's no road to get there, and it's ~24 miles deep into the woods from the nearest town of Wawona which has the population of ~100.
We need you make your backpacking big 3 video
Love this, full of insights. In addition, I'm still waiting for someone to clarify whethere China wants to reclaim the regions taken by Russia more than a century ago -- what they used to call Manchuria. I've read that on contemporary maps, China insists on using the historical names: Vladivostok is labeled as Haishenwai, and Sakhalin Island is called Kuyedao. When will China finally say, "OK, Russia, give us back our lands, and we'll offer you something in return?"
China does not invade, they buy. The Chinese invasion of Siberia is not with tanks, it is businessmen with briefcases full of cash. And it has been happening for the past 3 years.
bwahahaha! The Romans would build an ...petroduct (You know... like an aquaduct, but for oil... ;-) (Oh sure, whine about evaporation... gravity feed baby!) 🤣🤣🤣
Through Siberia in the winter... Yeah, oil flows so WELL when it's really cold.
True. Russia has invaded China quite a few times thru out history. You know the "century of humiliation" narrative the CCP loves to bring up? Well Russia was one of the perpetrators of the "century of humiliation" of China (together with the Brits and the Americans). Ironically now they are going Brits/Americans are now the enemies but Russia is our friend. Ironically they still love US dollars and the global system the US has maintained for 80 years that allowed China to prosper.
today's EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report... the main takeaways from today’s report: • Crude runs soared to the highest in seven years, as oil processing in both the Gulf Coast and Midwest moving higher, with the Midwest at an all-time record high. Runs on the Gulf Coast are the highest for this time of the year. This is hitting oil stocks which dropped last week by almost 5 million barrels after a four-week build. • Oil exports rose to nearly 4.5 million barrels each day of last week, the highest level since late June and at the high end of seasonal norms. This is evidence of the pull on US grades, especially from refiners in Asia, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The price of sour grade Mars is the one to watch as demand for US oil to replace Middle East barrels rises. • Distillate supplies on the East Coast are now at record lows. The majority of heating oil demand in the US occurs in the Northeast, so this is bad timing just a month before heating season starts. Fuel is mostly shipped up from the Gulf Coast, where stockpiles are fuller. But the East Coast is in competition with the rest of the world for those barrels, and the fuel will go wherever it’s most profitable. Lucia Kassai Oil Trading Reporter
Just got my first $1,000 + fuel oil bill for my home's boiler.
The critical piece of information in this piece is that there IS a pipeline transit cost and it IS significant. I AI'ed the question and it seems that the cost per barrel is around $5/bbl but it varies alot based on obvious factors that I will let the reader think about. This does NOT include capital cost amortization. Clearly, the cost of shipping oil from place to place is a significant factor that is, as usual, not in the purview of most of the public. Once seen, though, it is hard to unsee.
ChatGPT came back with about $20 barrel for transportation cost. But, there’s a whole shipload of assumptions in that number and analysis. And you know what they say, garbage in = garbage out.
Thank you and keep up the good work
Peter, Great Post. Just one Question...you said the cost of transporting through a pipeline would be "well over $80 a gallon" [1:34 point in the video] ,and then at the end you compared the cost to the price of a barrel which is about $80. I am sure you meant $80 per barrel. Also, you are still the best source of Geoplitical/demographic information out there.
Corrected in the video with a banner stating $80 a barrel.
Did he say pumping costs of $80 a gallon?
Corrected in the video with a banner.
The Russians and Chinese already have the ESPO “Eastern Siberian Pacific Ocean” Pipeline….so what is this all about. Confused
"The Chinese see the Russians as backwards barbarians..." Fair. "...And the Russians see the Chinese as peasants." Also fair.
The first part may be true. The second part used to be true. But it’s not true today. Maybe the Russian just don’t wanna let go of the past.
The enemy of my enemy is my enemy’s enemy. No more, no less.
Too bad this administration is selling our national parks to developers. But it's all part of the GOP's fifty year plan to get rid of the parts of the executive branch that don't produce war and incarceration. As for the pipeline costs - national security tends to make costs irrelevant. China is the country that built ghost cities and unused high speed rail networks just to keep their workers employed and their local governments funded.
Good one PZ! Please delve deeper into the mainland Chinese personality. Everything the CCP does is for commerce and profit motivation, thus predictable. Historically , China has not been a conquer and occupy country. The goal is to leverage the target countries into economic weakness, then demand tribute payment to the emperor. In my opinion, this is what the belt and road project is all about. Sadly, the western “barbarians” seem prone to let this happen. Hope your food is in a bear canister….👍
Thanks for your perspectives Peter.
So much for China's "comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era." It's all political propaganda fueled by old men's hubris. How unfortunate for their polls of the multipolar world disorder.
Got a new recording device? Looks great! 👍
No wind. Clam lake.
Best news out there! Thanks Peter and awesome scenery! Now, if you just could’ve been here in Asheville, NC to sort out these G20 Finance Track meetings and tell them what’s what…
This reminds me of a phrase from Full Metal Jacket, "You talk the talk, do you walk the walk?" It would appear that regarding Russia and China the answer is "No."
Thank you PZ! Beautiful background!