May 15, 2026 - Daily News Digest

On this day: in 1648, The Peace of Münster is ratified, by which Spain acknowledges Dutch sovereignty.

QOTD: “Trump also said Xi asked him directly if the US would defend Taiwan in a conflict.

“There’s only one person that knows that, you know, it is me, I’m the only person,” Trump said.

US/POLAND/MIL - Poland scrambles to respond after Pentagon ditches troop deployment plan
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-scrambles-respond-us-troop-decision/

Poland, one of the closest U.S. allies in Europe, was blindsided by this week's surprise decision from Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth to cancel the planned deployment of 4,000 American troops to the country. 

The government is now scrambling to respond while insisting that the move doesn't undermine the country's security.

The Polish-American alliance is “durable and lasting," Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said on Friday. "Poland continues to be the most stable American ally in Europe."

Deputy Defense Minister Paweł Zalewski told the TVN24 news channel on Thursday evening: "The assurance we have received is that the Americans do not plan to systematically reduce the U.S. presence in Poland."

But there was no disguising that the U.S. move left Poland flat-footed.

It wasn't clear why Hegseth canceled the deployment of the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division — a decision made after the unit had begun preparations to depart for Europe. Acting Pentagon press secretary Joel Valdez said the move was "not an unexpected, last-minute decision.”

UAE/ENERGY - UAE Will Double Oil Export Capacity Bypassing Hormuz by 2027
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/uae-to-complete-new-hormuz-bypass-oil-pipeline-by-2027

The United Arab Emirates will double its capacity to export crude oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz by next year, as it seeks to reduce reliance on the shipping chokepoint.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is accelerating the construction of a pipeline that runs to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, according to a statement from the emirate’s media office posted on X. The company already operates a 1.5 million barrel-a-day conduit from its oil fields to the port on its eastern coast, which has proved to be a lifeline during the Middle East conflict.

The existing pipeline has helped the UAE continue to supply markets, offsetting the hit to oil revenue as Iran practically shut the normal route through Hormuz soon after the war began in late February. Adnoc had already been planning the pipeline expansion as the current link can carry less than half of its normal export volumes.

CANADA/ENERGY - Canada, Alberta to Unveil Pipeline Pact Friday
https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/canada-alberta-to-unveil-pipeline-pact-friday-2cf83489?mod=world_feat3_americas_pos2

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he will unveil on Friday an agreement with the oil-rich province of Alberta that sets the stage for federal support for a new crude-carrying pipeline.

However, the Canadian leader said this did not mark a final deal. “There are multiple preconditions for that pipeline moving forward,” Carney said at a press conference related to electricity policy. Those conditions include the pipeline having a private-sector backer, a more stringent industrial-carbon pricing regime in Alberta and the building of a carbon-capture project known as Pathways.

“That’s why I chose carefully the word advancing, as opposed to concluding” an agreement, Carney said. He didn’t provide further details. A spokesman for Alberta Premier Danielle Smith did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Smith has said her push for new pipeline, preferably linking the Alberta oilpatch with the Northwest Pacific Coast, is a test of whether Canada’s federal system can work, amid growing calls in her province to hold a referendum on separation from Canada. Her move also is a test of Carney’s policy initiative to build trade corridors and resource projects aimed at reducing Canada’s reliance on trade with the U.S. to drive economic growth.

Smith has said a new pipeline to the Pacific Coast would help increase sales of crude oil to Asia. However, Smith said she is leading the charge to get a pipeline built in the hope that a deal with Ottawa would persuade private-sector investors to step up and take over.

Last week, Smith said Ottawa and Alberta were closing in on a pact but a compromise was required on the implementation of a tougher industrial-carbon tax regime. The hangup was when a tax of 130 Canadian dollars a tonne, or the equivalent of about $95, would kick in. Smith was hoping for a later implementation date, and various local media reports indicate Ottawa and Alberta have settled on 2040 as the year the carbon tax rises to C$130. It is currently at C$95 a tonne.

IRAN/CHINA/SHIPPING - Iran says Chinese ships passed through Hormuz overnight
https://www.dw.com/en/iran-says-chinese-ships-passed-through-hormuz-overnight/a-77163709

Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) on Thursday said that a number of Chinese ships were allowed passage through the strategic Strait of Hormuz since the night before.

The critical waterway, through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments transited in peacetime, has largely been blockaded by Iran since US and Israeli attacks against it on February 28 triggered the current conflict.

ranian state television said "more than 30 ships" had been allowed passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but did not specify how many of those ships were Chinese.

"It was ultimately concluded that a number of Chinese ships requested by this country would pass through this area after an agreement on Iran's strait management protocols," the Guard said in a statement, adding that "this passage began last night."

An IRGC commander stressed vessels linked to "an enemy state" continued to be blocked from passing through the waterway, the semi-official Fars news agency reported.

The statement coincided with US President Donald Trump's visit to China, where rallying support against Iran is among his priorities.

In comments to US broadcaster Fox News on Thursday and after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump said that the Chinese leader had promised him to help with opening up the Strait of Hormuz and had vowed not to arm Iran.

GIFT LINK: Enter the Killer Robots: The Ukrainian Forging the Future of Warfare
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/world/europe/mykhailo-fedorov-ukraine-ai.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ilA.jhaU.3GbFqtgkbzhY&smid=url-share

As Ukraine’s 35-year-old defense minister strolled about in tennis shoes, jeans and a fleece, gazing at displays of his country’s latest crop of oddball weapons, he paused to eye one gigantic, ungainly new device.

It was a drone with muscular carbon fiber arms stretching eight feet to each side, propellers the size of scythes, and a sprawl of wires, protruding antennas and Velcro straps. The drone substitutes for a 155-millimeter howitzer, carrying shells to targets and dropping them.

“Can you make it bigger?” the minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, asked the drone’s developers during a recent defense exhibition. They were working on it, they replied.

The future of warfare is being written in Ukraine, and Mr. Fedorov, a technology evangelist who is four months into his job, is one of its authors.

In the same way that apps remade taxi services and food delivery, Mr. Fedorov believes that warfare is ripe for disruption. That, he says, means offloading the fighting as much as possible onto machines — including, someday, those that can make lethal decisions on their own.

“The world needs security, and only autonomous weapons can ensure it,” Mr. Fedorov said in an interview in his office at the Ministry of Defense. “Autonomous weapons are the new nuclear weapons. Countries that possess them will be protected.”

While killer robots may seem a horrifying prospect, something out of dystopian science fiction, the race for them is on worldwide.

In Ukraine, the use of artificial intelligence in weapons is still in its infancy. It is most helpful now in target recognition, like helping a drone pilot pick out a camouflaged tank hidden in a forest. But the technology is improving, and Mr. Fedorov sees it as a pillar of Ukraine’s broader embrace of new-generation weapons that have kept its outnumbered military in the fight.

US/CHINA/TAIWAN/MIL - Trump to Decide Soon on Taiwan Arms Sale, Noncommittal to Xi
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/trump-says-he-was-noncommittal-on-taiwan-to-decide-on-sale-soon?srnd=homepage-americas

US President Donald Trump said he made no commitment to Chinese President Xi Jinping over Taiwan, and would make a decision soon over a planned $14 billion arms deal with the island.

“On Taiwan he feels very strongly, I made no commitment either way,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday. The US president said he would ultimately “make a determination over the next fairly short period” about the weapons after speaking to the person “that’s running Taiwan,” without specifying who he means.

Trump said he and Xi “talked a lot” about the issue, and the Chinese leader “does not want to see a fight for independence, because that would be a very strong confrontation.”

CONGO/EBOLA/PUT THEM ON A CRUISE SHIP - African public health agency announces new Ebola outbreak in Congo, 65 suspected deaths
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/africa-cdc-says-ebola-outbreak-confirmed-congos-ituri-province-2026-05-15/

Africa's top public health agency said on Friday that there was a confirmed Ebola outbreak in ‌Democratic Republic of Congo's Ituri province, with 65 deaths out of 246 suspected cases so far.

The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said in a statement that it was convening an urgent meeting with Congo, Uganda, South Sudan and global partners to reinforce ​cross-border surveillance, preparedness and response efforts.

It said the deaths and suspected cases had been reported mainly in ​the Mongwalu and Rwampara health zones, while four deaths had been reported among laboratory-confirmed cases. ⁠Suspected cases have also been reported in Bunia, the provincial capital.

The agency said initial findings suggested the presence of ​a non-Zaire strain of the virus, with sequencing ongoing to further characterise it.

Jean-Jacques Muyembe, the Congolese virologist who co-discovered ​Ebola and heads the National Institute for Biomedical Research in Kinshasa, told Reuters that all but one of Congo's 16 previous outbreaks had been caused by the Zaire strain.

CHINA/IRAN/SHIPPING - Iran’s Latest Ship Seizure Is a Chinese-Owned Floating Armory
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/iran-s-latest-ship-seizure-is-a-chinese-owned-floating-armory?srnd=phx-politics

Iran seized a Chinese-owned ship that’s one of a handful of so-called floating armories that operate in the region, according to two maritime security consultants who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information.

Hong Kong-based Sinoguards, a maritime security firm, said in a statement Tehran’s forces took one of its ships, the Hui Chuan, into Iranian waters on Thursday. That followed an alert from a UK naval group that a commercial ship was apprehended by unauthorized personnel at the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz.

It’s unclear why Iran has taken the vessel after Tehran said in statements on Thursday that Chinese ships were allowed to cross Hormuz, suggesting cooperation between the two nations. China has long been the biggest buyer of Iranian oil.

Sinoguards said the vessel is undergoing documentation and compliance inspection in Iranian waters. The company didn’t respond to a question from Bloomberg News on whether the ship was a floating armory, and in its statement referred to it as an offshore work platform vessel.

The firm provides security services, including armed guards, for vessels transiting risky waters such as the Indian Ocean, according to its website. One of Sinoguards’ permanent bases is in Fujairah, a key United Arab Emirates port outside the strait in the Gulf of Oman.

“We are cooperating fully with the appropriate authorities and have submitted the requested vessel and crew documentation,” the company said in the statement on Friday, adding that there’s no indication the vessel’s crew have been injured.

Vessel-based armories, or VBAs as ships like the Hui Chuan are known, store firearms in international waters as part of the security services they offer.

Such vessels also act as a rest point for personnel employed by private military and security companies, where they can wait to embark and disembark ships.

There are no rules on what sort of vessels can function as VBAs. The Hui Chuan, is classified as a Honduras-flagged fishery research vessel that was built in 1984.

Sinoguards was established in 2013, according to its website, which said the company focuses on recruiting ex-service personnel from Ukraine and Nepal. Sinoguards is a neutral company with no ties to governments or armed forces, it said.