The Strait of Hormuz Remains Open...For Iran || Mar. 27, 2026
Despite the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains open...sort of. The Iranians have taken control, requiring ships to get clearance for safe passage.
Basically, Iran has set up a protection racket. They're earning more from transit fees and oil exports than before the war, and all the Chinese ships carrying drone parts and components heading to Iran remain untouched. Even with the significant U.S. military presence in the region, nothing is being done to disrupt these flows.
Until that stops, Iran's military operations and economy will continue to grow stronger.
Comments (84)
Live Laugh Love pillow
Thanks! Feel better soon.
My question is this: where Doo we need to put the DOJ to maintain the rule of law against a cult presidency? (The dynamics of 3-faction social systems are not new...)
Does this mean that mines have not been laid?
That's what I want to know, too!
To think our military will successfully execute a land assault along the Straight of Hormuz I suspect is a fool’s errand because Iran has most likely been planning for this for over a decade including anticipation of an obvious air assault softening of its coast beforehand.
The US will be held accountable, and all Americans for letting it happen. Pass that along too. Global Epic fury coming your way.
Not enough of you detest him and nothing is being done. This has now gone beyond common sense or decency. America allowed this stain of a human to take over and directly impact the rest of the world. As some countries struggle with $9USD per gallon diesel and farmers are suiciding over collapsing generational farms, and anxiety is skyrocketing around the world. Why? Because of the sociopathic whims of a demented circus clown .....that America voted in and continues to allow free reign. Here is the proper message! Epic retaliation is coming. The world will not forget.
Don’t think there’s any hope Mr. President will listen to anyone’s advise. Get well Peter. Get another cat and name it Thor. lol.
And once again we are slapped in the face by the limitations of our current government.
Perhaps you might consider not hiking out in the cold wet while you broadcast.
I’m waiting for the SNL skit. 2 days ago Trump unveiled his “15 point peace plan with Iran”. One year ago Trump unveiled his “15 point peace plan for Ukraine”. What’s up with the number 15?
15 is his favorite age
In depth coverage of this on the "What's going on with shipping" YT channel. Sal has been screaming for weeks about allowing Iranian ships to pass. Just testified in the Senate.
I've been watching that channel, too, best info out there on what is really going on. He has great contacts and is very dedicated to the merchant marine. It's a horrible situation out there.
Hopefully someone will pass it along, thankyou very much :) I doubt the IRGC can earn back enough to cover all the damages they have suffered over the last few weeks. Do cats ever experience 'pins & needles'?
Peter is wrong about insurance. China has arranged it's own via Hong Kong entities for many Chinese vessels transiting the Gulf. They are covered, others not.
Insurance is no problem when your ally is the gate keeper
Delivering what the people want-- even when sick! (By this of course I mean Loki)
how is it possible that the White House doesn’t know this and didn’t have a counter plan to this? Crazy
Can I get a non paywall link to share. I might know a guy
Mr. Magoo34: Either wait a week, or download the autogenerated PDF transcript and copy-edit the errors out of it, then provide that.
On the bright side, we can blame this on Trump and Israel. Even though this shock & awe => puppet leader has been an American staple for decades, Trump really took it to the more reckless and dangerous level ever before seen. I'm afraid there's more bloodshed ahead, and America may turn to socialism as an antibody reaction to MAGA. But bottom line, Trump has to go and go down hard.
brief recap of a John Mearsheimer interview with Glenn Diesen, not an ideal source but Mearsheimer's thoughts may be useful...nothing groundbreaking here , facts are facts? Part One: The core issue here is that what was supposed to be a fast, decisive war has turned into a structural trap with no clear exit. The initial strategy—shock, decapitation, regime collapse—failed, and now the conflict has shifted into a war of attrition where Iran holds the stronger hand. The U.S. can’t escalate cleanly without triggering major second-order consequences: Iran has the ability to disrupt global energy flows, target vulnerable Gulf infrastructure, and sustain low-cost asymmetric warfare over time. At the same time, Washington is boxed in by its own macro constraints—it needs oil flowing, which limits its willingness to strike Iranian energy assets. That contradiction—fighting Iran while relying on its barrels—is at the center of the problem.
Part Two: From here, the dynamics skew further in Iran’s favor the longer this drags on. There’s effectively no bargaining zone between the two sides, and time works asymmetrically—economic pressure, market stress, and political urgency build faster on the U.S. side. Meanwhile, Iran can raise the stakes by expanding pressure across multiple chokepoints (Hormuz + Red Sea), amplifying global risk. Allies aren’t lining up—Europe sees this as a losing proposition, and even within the U.S. coalition there are diverging incentives. That leaves two endgames: either Washington makes meaningful concessions and absorbs the optics of defeat, or it escalates into a scenario with serious global economic consequences. Neither path is clean, which is why the real story here is rising tail risk, not a defined resolution.
Please, nobody pass this information along. We need this incompetent rogue president to fail fast and at an unprecedented level. His incompetence and his legion of sicko fence must fall, and since they continue to make the most asinine decisions, and since there are people who still think their actions are the right thing for America or even for the globe, we need them all to suffer greatly. Now. Please do not pass this information or any other piece of information that might get in the way of their complete and utter decline. Pardon typos from talk to text, i.e., sycophants.
No worries. Trump doesn't want to hear it so it's unlikely he will. The problem with him getting sucked down the drain is it'll drag use down too. Plus even hearing it, he won't be able to "fix" this enough before voters make up their minds about the idiot-in-chief. A few trips to the gas station will make the problem crystal clear to most Americans.
Trump is making China, Russia and Iran great again. 🤷♀️🤷🤷♂️🤪🤪🤪
Art of the deal 🤡
We cannot expect Trump's administration to talk any sense into this man. This decision to attack Iran was by far the costliest distraction from the Epstein scandal than any other. Netanyahu's scandal is staying in power and not being delivered to the international courts for genocide. More soldiers will die for their BS cause.
Sal has said that the insurance part is now available (expensive as hell but available). It's still not worth sailing, as things MIGHT settle out here relatively soon.
We had a cat named Loki that looks just like this critter. He was a great cat.
Hello to Lowkey!
I am curious as to why two Chinese ships tried to exit the Gulf, this morning, and then turned around, at the last minute, to remain trapped in the Gulf. Something is waaay off, somewhere, if that report is accurate.
Trump taco routine is clearly a way to manipulate markets to make huge money
How about we obliterate Iran's tollbooth and declare victory?
It sounds so simple. BOMBS AWAY!
The YouTube channel What’s Going on With Shipping is incredible. Sal has way more detailed breakdowns of wtf is going on in the Strait of Hormuz and he does daily updates with maritime maps and literally shows info on what ships are entering/exiting. Everything Trump said on 03/26 was basically a lie except for one quote that both Zeihan and Sal have said about if there’s a 1% chance of your ship being blown up by Iranians then no one will insure it. Link to that video below, but as of typing this comment it was posted 19 hours ago so is likely out of date already haha. https://youtu.be/ybU29t7rkc8?si=ny9YuP07lTOk9YBZ Zeihan is great and I’ve watched his content for years, but seriously Sal from What’s Going on With Shipping is WAY better than this Patreon update from Peter. I’m curious about the reports of this $2 million dollar fee being paid exclusively in Yen and how similar payments between Russia/China for Ukraine conflict are all made in Yen/Rubles too. Are they trying to end the petrodollar slowly to avoid a complete collapse of USD since so many assets/investments are currently tied to USD/America in general? Get well soon, Peter! Huge fan of the show and newsletter.
I believe the Chinese currency name is Yuan. Yen is the Japanese currency.
Nice investigative work Peter, you should let someone in the administration pay you for consulting and then steal your ideas to say it was them? Surely someone in this Patreon has their ear...unfortunately would probably be a Russian mole that Trump would unwittingly promote to a key decision maker. Love that the god of mischief makes an appearance finally 😄
I assumed that Trump’s positioning on the Iranian present was a good way of confirming they were talking with the right people (If they have the power to ensure safe passage they must be in control of the IRGC). The fact that the transits went through the Iranian toll and it was not 8-10 oil tankers tells me they may not be talking to the right people or the negotiations are not going as planned – this could be a rope a dope. The stick and carrot negotiation plan is yielding some fruit though and this whole process will certainly cause Iranian leaders to reveal themselves just long enough to get their birthday taken from them until we find one willing to sell out the IRGC and information on where all the easter eggs are. I suspect the game now is identify a pliable leader and present a compensation package that reveals where all the various weapons and threats are and how to kick off an IRGC celebration party where the US provides the fireworks and entertainment as the SoH is reopened. Who knows how this will ultimately play out but we can know that Trump will make various claims to buoy the market while he works to position himself for success. Unless there is something very decisive soon I think Trump loses Congressional control which leaves Trump with only one avenue to secure a top ten president spot in the history books (Foreign Policy Wins) and Iran will be the crown jewel that he may well choke on. However, if he can flip Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, and broker peace between Ukraine and Russia he will have accomplished a lot and it will be up to those that follow to try and hold the line. I feel like the key to flipping Russia is via Iran and that is the ultimate checkmate on China and frankly the rest of the world but the price may prove to be nasty economically and food security wise for more time than anyone thought. If we can thread the needle soon then I can see an economic boom otherwise it looks like someone shat the bed.
Man I really hope we don't escalate things towards Easter...going to be nearby the AO and I'd really appreciate not having to deal with a terrorist attack
Does any of this make sense if Trump is either a Russian agent or asset? There seem to be too many weird things going on that make more sense if you are trying to hurt the U.S.
US Navy, just take their boats. Don’t take Kharg, no boots, take their gosh danged oil tankers.
Yeah the Navy should do what '90s LAPD cops would do: just sprinkle some crack on the scene and use it as justification for arrest, ie. inspect "suspicious" passing ships and plant weapons that they "find" when searching the vessel as justification to hold it.
7D Chess
Perhaps even 8D chess, as is "8===D"
I heard that one of Iran's new demands is to have the US adopt Sharia law and cover our women. I also heard somewhere that they are mobilizing 1,000,000 men, and each will be issued a shoulder-fired hypersonic missile. It's the end of the world as we know it. It's the end of the world as we know it. Nice Cat Hat, Pete.
Another 10,000 troops? Maybe these are all ICE agents! After al, they are already at the airports ready to go!. And they are all experienced combat veterans after Minneapolis and countless churches and schools. Who better to take on the IRGC? They already know how to intimidate citizens and what's the difference between storming a mosque and dragging away Muslim clerics, or storming a Catholic church? As the saying goes, set a thief to catch a thief.
It is going as Trump planned it. He does opposite of what he says. He wants troops under his orders.
At some point Iran had to be taken down a few pegs. Don’t think there was ever going to be a good time. Every US president kicked the can down the road. Biden and Obama even released billions of frozen assets so the mullahs could wage regional proxy conflicts. So Peter, are these the professionals you wish werent fired? Im an independent and not MAGA. But I see a larger realignment happening in the Middle East that is long over due. The theocratic death cult in Iran was amassing power until June 2025. I’m just astonished the readers here think a war against an entrenched mountainous country with an entrenched million man army would take just 2-4 weeks to dislodge. You can Monday morning quarterback the decision to attack. And the prosecution of the war strategy. The more operative conversation is how to quickly neuter the IRGC. I have to believe the military has a strategy for this. We will see in the coming weeks.
I agree with you….except for the fact that Trump and Hegseth had a plan. It seems more and more like they didn’t.
Trump seems to say out loud whatever crosses his mind. In reality he says out loud ONLY what is in his advantage and fulfills his plans. Unfortunately, he is way smarter than he looks and ONLY for personal advantage.
I won't make a difference, USA fucked up. The fuck-up started when most US citizens elected these fascists into power, as most US citizens subscribe to this tiranic fascist Christianity movement, spewing hatred, racism, arrogance, stupidity. I didn't see so much hatred anywhere else, but in USA. Pure hatred. USA elected to go this path and fuck us all, because most Americans hate anybody else. Who do they love? Putin! I made a rule: all my life I'll do anything I can to not give money to USA. In time, I think we will get rid of USA dependencies and I hope all my fellow Europeans made this their lifetime target.
Recall the alternative was the non-primaried Kamala and Goofy Walz.
Wow. You mean we’re not great yet? Say it ain’t so!
Peter, you don't actually think that the issues you have been discussing today are unknown to the US government, really? I mean, even apart from the fact that all of this has been pretty widely reported elsewhere, don't you think they are likely to have a better handle on this than the press? And while it is possible that it isn't at the top of their to-do list, isn't it also possible that they may have other reasons to let this go for now? Obviously I don't claim to know, but I really don't think it's realistic to think that they are just a bunch of idiots wandering in the dark, as you suggest.
Peter is stating that Trump (who is essentially single handedly making the decisions in the war) has cut himself off from the intelligence apparatus in the military. So regardless of what the military may or may not know, Trump doesn’t know.
So, put Imam Khomeini Port and Shahid Rajaee Port on the target list instead of the electrical grid. Do I have to think of everything? Also, as of this morning, I read Trump is considering sending ANOTHER 10,000 troops to the region. Why? I don't even want to speculate. It seems like some kind of random brain glitch converted to national policy, to me.
You are going to have to wait until 2027 when the democrats come the republicans are not smart enough or brave enough to tell Trump
Who the hell planned this war?
Apparently, no one is there since there is no plan. Just some guys feverishly ranting, waving hands in the air, speaking in ideological tongues, passing noxious gas, and telling the military to get it done ASAP.
It won't Peter. There wil🐝 no shortage of equipment, supplies, ordnance making its way to Iran. When Donny makes a Headlines News and says ... "The Gulf nation neighbours had Better get Serious about Iran." The Gulf Nation heads, including Bin Salman ... they get on the Red-phone with Donny ... "Yes- Absolutely - We Will get Serious about Iran." The Moment All of Them closes that Highly Secured Line ... 😸 ... "Send Iran whatever We HAVE." It's a Lot-Like-That, Peter ... 😹 These are things I do know about. It is a FUCKING Hornets Nest over there ...Par-Fucking-Ex·cel·Lence. "Three to five weeks ... and it's over" ... 😼 What do think? ... 😐 ... 40 - 50,000 🥾🥾🥾🥾🥾🥾onduhGROUND ... by Octobre? 👁️ DON'T think THAT ... will get it done. It Won't. We will NEED HELP. And We won't get it. This is a Disaster ... perhaps ... Not LIKE WE HAVE SEEN ... in our Life-Time. This can make Vietnam look like ...🥔🥔🥔. We are in a State of Fucked. If not Totally ... Yet. Thanks Peter ... and Loki ... Hey Loki ... 😺 ... What'-Up? HavuhNice Weekend. Hope YoocnShake it off by Monday.
Cat!
Hello Loki 😺 👋
I don't understand why Kharg island keeps coming up? The USN is easily capable of blockeding the Gulf of Oman and stop all ships from going or leaving Iran. Why bother taking it? It make no sense. Trump doesn't want that oil off market, that is the only reason i can think of, so we have already lost.
Disregard Kharg Island. It is a distraction until it is not. Presently, it is a distraction. "so we have already lost." ... 🤔 ... So much already. Next question. "if that is so, what is recoverable?" Excellent question ... 😐
I'd love to see the government of Iran fall and the people take control of their country. So I have no time for the Ayatollah and the IRGC. But I am taking some perverse pleasure from watching Trump shoot himself in both feet here. But I really hope US troops aren't going to be sacrificed on the altar of this man's vanity and stupidity.
frump doesn't even see us little people, let alone listen to us...
I’ve followed Peter Zeihan for a while, but I’m unsubscribing. The issue isn’t that he’s always wrong he usually starts with something real. It’s what he does next is the issue. He takes a partial truth and stretches it into a worst-case scenario without showing the math, sources, or how he’s getting there. Things like disruption turn into “collapse,” policy choices become “they’re doing nothing,” and reorganization becomes “everyone got fired.” it starts to feel less like analysis and more like storytelling built on top of real events. Maybe it’s bias, maybe it’s just his style, but I don’t trust the conclusions anymore. If you’re still watching his content, take it as a starting point but do your own research and stress test the claims. I will still enjoy reading his books and watching his content for free on YouTube, but I'm no longer going to pay for something that is not giving me what it is advertising.
TDS much?
All this incompetence does is fuel a desire for nationalism in me. The part of my brain that is the old man without trousers shouting at pigeons in the park looks at my country's oil reserves and infrastructure and wonders why the he'll i have to put up with shortages. I know that's how the system works but looking at the last twenty years in the UK I'm not impressed with the results of our participation in it. Translated for our American chums: send help, I think I'm turning into a 1960s Republican. From Arkansas. If that's happening to me then God knows what public sentiment is going to manifest in my country's politics. No matter, I married a German. The in laws can give me some pointers I'm sure.
Wish you strong health🤗
Sal at What's going on with shipping has been pointing this out for 3 weeks.
True! But he did not mention the Chinese ships going in with what could be drone parts. That has me scratching my head.
You have 5 days to make a deal, or else.... Ok, ok, you get 5 more days, for real this time, seriously. And in the meantime Iran is preparing for Kharg island invasion, it's a trap. Just gotta pray for the Marines.
I’d imagine the best thing for the world is that Trump be allowed to think he won and pull assets out of the region and stop the $1 Billion/day bleeding. Never mind regular traffic flows being allowed to resume. Let’s just keep this to ourselves yeah.
No, because now the world has a problem. Iran has realized it can continue running this protection racket forever, meaning that their incomes have now been perpetually boosted by 2 million per tanker transiting the strait. So the incompetence on display has not only cost the American people billions of dollars but given Iran a brand new revenue stream.
Thanks Peter. Hope you feel better soon.
Come back Nixon and Kissinger, all is forgiven. Smart evil in service of American hegemony and the MIC is better than whatever this cretinitude is.
"cretinitude". I like that word. :-)
I kinda wanna comment substantively but I also just am probably going to spend like 3-4 hours today “working” but really just imagining how TroTUS would write like a 4 paragraph Truth Social post criticizing PZ for giving him advice. Maybe criticizing isn’t the word, because I don’t think he could give PZ criticism, that would require like constructive thought, but he could slander him! That would be worth a 5 year subscription plan.
Maybe Trump and family getting a cut...... that is why it is allowed to continue 🤷
Just raise the Spanish flag ;-) 🇪🇦