March 26, 2025 - Daily News Digest

On this day: in 1169, Saladin becomes the emir of Egypt. 

QOTD: ""That is why, in my strong view, we should go after the ⁠shadow fleet even harder," Starmer said at a meeting of the Joint Expeditionary Force Summit in Helsinki on Thursday. "Together we ​must close off critical sea routes to this vital trade to keep up the pressure on Putin."

TURKEY/RUSSIA/MIL - Turkey-operated tanker carrying Russian oil struck by naval drone in Black Sea
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260326-turkey-operated-tanker-carrying-russian-oil-struck-by-naval-drone-in-black-sea

A water-borne drone struck a Turkish-operated crude oil tanker that had departed Russia, causing an explosion in the Black Sea near Istanbul's Bosphorus ​strait ‌on Thursday, Turkey's transportation minister said.

The incident, one of several ⁠in recent months involving Western-sanctioned vessels heading to or from Russian ports, occurred in the early hours, minister ‌Abdulkadir Uraloglu told broadcaster Kanal 24. 

"I can say that a foreign-flagged ship operated by a Turkish company, which had loaded crude oil from Russia, reported an explosion in its engine room after midnight to our emergency call centre," the minister said in a televised interview. 

"We believe that the engine room was specifically targeted. We think the attack was not carried out by a drone, but by an unmanned surface vehicle at water level."

[Interesting details here re: targeting and tech. -mnno]

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/AND ZELENSKY TOOK THAT PERSONALLY - Russia sought to blackmail US using intelligence to Iran, Zelenskiy says
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-sought-blackmail-us-using-intelligence-iran-zelenskiy-says-2026-03-25/

Russia sought to blackmail the United States by offering to stop sharing military intelligence with Iran if, in return, Washington ​would cut off Ukraine from its intelligence data, President ‌Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday.

Zelenskiy, who said on Monday that Ukraine's military intelligence has "irrefutable" evidence that Russia is continuing to provide intelligence to Iran, ​told Reuters he had seen the data but provided ​no further details.

Speaking in his presidential compound in Kyiv, Zelenskiy ⁠said that some Iranian drones, used to attack U.S. military ​assets and its allies during the war in the Middle East, ​contained Russian components.

"I have reports from our intelligence services showing that Russia is doing this and saying: 'I will not pass on intelligence to Iran if ​America stops passing intelligence to Ukraine.' Isn't that blackmail? Absolutely," ​Zelenskiy said.

He did not say who, according to the reports, Russia was addressing ‌the ⁠comments to. Russia has denied assisting Iran in its month-old conflict with the United States and Israel - a denial that Washington said earlier this month that it had also received directly from ​Moscow when the issue ​was discussed.

UK/RUSSIA/MIL - UK authorises military to board Russian shadow fleet tankers
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-authorises-military-board-russian-shadow-fleet-tankers-2026-03-25/

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Thursday he ​had authorised the military to board and detain Russian ships in British waters to disrupt a network of ‌vessels that his government says enables Moscow to export oil despite Western sanctions.

The decision comes as other European nations, including France, Belgium and Sweden, have stepped up efforts to detain Russia's so-called shadow fleet of tankers used by Moscow to fund its four-year war against Ukraine.

Starmer said he approved the more aggressive action against ​the vessels because Russian President Vladimir Putin was likely "rubbing his hands" over the sharp rise in oil prices driven ​by the U.S.-Israel war against Iran.

ENERGY/MIL/RUSSIA DOWN BAD - Exclusive: At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity halted, Reuters calculations show
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/least-40-russias-oil-export-capacity-halted-reuters-calculations-show-2026-03-25/

At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed ​attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers, according to Reuters calculations based ‌on market data.

The shutdown is the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern history of Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, and has hit Moscow just as oil prices exceeded $100 a barrel due to the Iran war.

Russia's oil output ​is one of the main sources of revenue for the national budget and is central to the $2.6 ​trillion economy.

UKRAINE HAS INCREASED ATTACKS

Ukraine intensified drone attacks on Russia's oil and fuel export infrastructure ⁠this month, hitting all three of Russia's major western oil export ports, including Novorossiysk on the Black ​Sea and Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea.

According to Reuters calculations, about 40% of Russia's crude oil ​export capabilities - or around 2 million barrels per day, were shut as of Wednesday after the most recent attack.

That includes Primorsk and Ust-Luga as well as the Druzhba pipeline, which runs through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia.

YEMEN/IRAN/MIL/SHIPPING/THE MORE THE MERRIER - Yemen's Houthis ready to join Iran war if needed, raising new shipping risk
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-ready-join-iran-war-if-needed-raising-new-shipping-risk-2026-03-26/

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement, whose attacks on the Red Sea caused international shipping and ​trade chaos during the Gaza war, stands ready to strike the key waterway again in solidarity with Tehran, one Houthi ‌leader told Reuters, a move that would deepen a global oil and economic crisis brought on by the Middle East war.

If the Houthis open a new front in the conflict, one obvious target would be the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the coast of Yemen, a key shipping chokepoint and narrow passageway that controls sea ​traffic towards the Suez Canal after Iran effectively shut the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's Shi'ite allies in Lebanon and Iraq have joined the war ​in the region unleashed by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Tehran. But Yemen's Houthi rebels, heavily armed ⁠and capable of striking Gulf neighbours and causing major disruption to maritime navigation around the Arabian Peninsula, have not yet entered the fray.

"We ​stand fully militarily ready with all options. As for other details having to do with determining zero hour they are left to leadership and ​we are monitoring and following up with the developments and will know when is the suitable time to move," said the Houthi leader, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic.

EU/CLIMATE/ECON/DESPERATE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING THAT’S NOT IRAN RELATED - Carbon-Removal Credits Licensed by EU Get Nasdaq Backing
https://www.wsj.com/articles/carbon-removal-credits-licensed-by-eu-draw-interest-from-investors-a9ef1338?mod=world_lead_story

Nasdaq Inc. is among a group of investors backing a carbon-capture project in Stockholm, in what is the first sale of carbon-removal credits licensed by the European Union. The EU initiative aims to spur further investment in a system potentially worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

EU policymakers hope a step-up in the flow of corporate cash for removals of carbon can help it achieve its ambitious goal of emissions neutrality within the coming decades. But critics warn that the removal of polluting gases already emitted shouldn’t replace efforts to cut emissions in the first place.

The EU’s methodology “will facilitate investment in innovative carbon removal technologies, as well as sustainable carbon farming solutions,” it said.

The Stockholm facility, operated by energy provider Stockholm Exergi, will take carbon-laden agricultural and woody residues and produce energy for heating and electricity, in a process known as BECCS—bio energy with carbon capture and storage. The leftover carbon dioxide will be stored deep beneath the North Sea in sedimentary bedrock and will gradually mineralize over time.

ASIA/ECON - Growth in Asia Could Slow Sharply on Prolonged Mideast Conflict, ADB Says
https://www.wsj.com/economy/growth-in-asia-could-slow-sharply-on-prolonged-mideast-conflict-adb-says-6e8a9f8e?mod=world_feat2_asia_pos1

A prolonged Middle East conflict could cut economic growth in developing Asia and the Pacific by up to 1.3 percentage points through 2027, while pushing inflation up by as much as 3.2 percentage points, the Asian Development Bank said.

The hit would come if energy market disruptions persist for more than a year, underscoring the region’s exposure to higher oil prices, supply-chain strains and tighter financial conditions.

“Prolonged energy disruptions could force economies in developing Asia and the Pacific to navigate a difficult trade-off between weaker growth and higher inflation,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park.

The effects are likely to be uneven across the region.

Unlike the U.S., a major energy producer and exporter, Asian economies will have to absorb higher energy costs. This could drive capital flows toward U.S. dollar‑denominated assets, amplifying pressure on regional currencies, the multilateral bank said.

MORE: Asia Braces for Worst-Case Oil Scenario as Iran War Drags On
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-25/asia-braces-for-worst-case-energy-scenarios-as-iran-war-drags-on

Governments across Asia are preparing for worst-case energy scenarios that could include a prolonged and severe disruption to supplies, as the US and Iran remain at odds over proposals to end a conflict that has roiled global markets.

South Korea shifted into crisis mode on Wednesday, setting up an emergency economic task force to urgently prepare for adverse scenarios. The Philippines declared a national emergency, citing an “imminent danger of a critically low energy supply.”

Japan is reviewing its entire supply chain of petroleum-related products as the likelihood of shortages and knock-on effects across the economy grows, while India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned the war could cause unprecedented challenges for the nation.

The Middle East conflict and associated energy supply shock threaten to further fan inflation, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Chris Kent said Thursday in a speech in Sydney.

LEBANON/ISRAEL/MIL - Lebanese fear another occupation as Israel threatens to use Gaza tactics in the south
https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-war-incursion-416347699f12430c471f3f26b07821cf

As Israel trades fire with Hezbollah, calls for mass evacuations and sends ground troops deeper into Lebanon, its leaders have hinted at a long-term occupation modeled on the devastating conquest of much of Gaza after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack.

Israel says it needs to establish a zone of control in the depopulated south to shield its own northern communities, which have faced daily rocket attacks since the Iran-backed militant Hezbollah group joined the wider war. Many in Lebanon fear that could mean the open-ended displacement of over a million people, the flattening of their homes and a loss of territory.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said this week that it would create a “security zone” up to the Litani River, some 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border in some places. He said troops would destroy homes, which he claimed were being used by militants, and that residents would not return until northern Israel is safe.

[Israel’s push to the Litani is not getting as much coverage or attention against the backdrop of the flashier air strike and assassination campaign against Iran, but I would argue that it is no less notable. Sadly, few places on earth are as frustrating to have to talk about Lebanon. 

The country’s geography is made up of two primary mountain ranges and the Bekaa Valley—the latter home to the LItani river. The Bekaa is also just north of the Golan heights, and the Bekaa, aside from being one of the most productive agricultural and smuggling regions in the Levant, also roughly bisects Lebanon. Israel’s push toward the southern bank is already displacing hundreds of thousands of southern Lebanese, who form the backbone of Shi’I support for the Hezbollah. It also provides defensible territory for Israel to wage the fight against Hezbollah form within Lebanon, weaken resistances from all Lebanese parties to the north, etc. Lebanon is also unique among Arab countries for not having any desert regions, though desertification and aridity in the northern Bekaa is a growing problem following changes in rainfall patterns and increased water usage. -mnno]

IRAN/OIL/TRADE - Is Iran cashing in millions from Strait of Hormuz blockade?
https://www.dw.com/en/is-iran-cashing-in-millions-from-strait-of-hormuz-blockade/a-76503935

Throughout history, well-connected people and entities have always capitalized on crises. But the Iran war is taking profiteering to a whole new level, even as the US reportedly offers a 15-point plan to end the fighting.

During the nearly monthlong conflict, allegations have been leveled at fuel retailers — who raised pump prices within hours of the first strikes — major oil companies, which stand to gain windfall margins from $100 (€86.24)-a-barrel crude, and marine insurers, who increased war-risk premiums by hundreds of percent after Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.

But one move trumps them all for sheer audacity. Iran, which has blocked almost all oil and gas tankers from traversing the strait, has reportedly begun charging up to $2 million (€1.72 million) per ship for "safe passage" through Hormuz.

Lloyd's List, one of the world's oldest and most authoritative maritime publications, reported last week that at least one tanker is believed to have made a payment.

Has Iran erected a 'toll booth' in Hormuz?

Tehran's move threatens to turn a critical global chokepoint — through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply flows — into a high‑stakes toll booth.

While several Iranian officials have denied the report, lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi claimed on state TV that such fees were being collected as part of a "new sovereign regime" in the strait, framing the move as an attempt to cover "war costs."

If confirmed, the payment would be a breach of international maritime law, said Robert Huebert, an international relations expert at the University of Calgary in Canada. 

"Freedom of navigation … is the foundation of international maritime trade … the ability to go through these areas without any form of obstruction," Huebert told a podcast by Canada-based Energi Media on Tuesday. "If you were to do that [charge a fee], you would have direct opposition from almost every state."

With more than 3,200 vessels stranded, Peter Sand, chief analyst at the Copenhagen-based shipping analytics firm Xeneta, downplayed the importance of the fee for helping reopen the narrow waterway.  

"As high as it may seem, [the $2 million transit charge] is not the essential factor," Sand told DW. "What matters is that it's still unsafe to pass through [Hormuz]."

Even so, the willingness of major oil and gas importers to engage in direct talks and pay a staggering fee per vessel, in addition to sky-high insurance coverage, underscores the growing desperation among fuel-dependent nations to secure even minimal supplies through the strait. 

"Some [countries] may want to pay," Sand added. "It is a small final premium to pay to ensure some sort of uninterrupted energy supply."

US/IRAN/MIL - Trump’s ‘absurdly incoherent’ Iran pleas leave allies befuddled
https://www.politico.eu/article/donlad-trump-strait-of-hormuz-allies-befuddled/

Donald Trump’s messaging on what he wants from American allies in his war against Iran is so confusing that any effort to help in reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains deadlocked, according to four European government officials.

Washington has not made any formal requests for equipment, said the officials, who were granted anonymity to speak freely on the sensitive talks, while allies are also reluctant to send military assets to the region over fears they would be attacked by Iran.

More than 30 nations, including a majority of NATO countries, have pledged “appropriate efforts” to restart shipping through the critical trade chokepoint after the U.S. president slammed allies as “COWARDS” for failing to volunteer their assistance.

But so far, discussions remain in their very early stages, according to government officials from seven European countries.

“One would wish for more predictability, more clarity and more strategic foresight — not only in this case,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told POLITICO on Tuesday, adding: “Let’s wait and see.”

The slow-moving talks reflect Trump’s conflicting messaging more than three weeks into his war against Iran — where he has threatened allies for failing to back his campaign, then said they weren’t needed, all while providing scant detail on how they could support the U.S.

The lack of enthusiasm about getting involved also underscores Europe’s growing self-confidence in dealing with Washington, as the continent increasingly shifts its approach from placating Trump to confronting him over a war allies were not consulted on.

“This war violates international law,” German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Tuesday. “There is little doubt that, in any case, the justification of an imminent attack on the U.S. does not hold water.”

IRAN/ISRAEL/ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST - Commander Targeted by Israel Led Iran’s Blockade of Strait of Hormuz
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/26/world/middleeast/who-alireza-tangsiri-iran-commander-navy-irgc.html

Alireza Tangsiri, the commander of the naval forces of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, is the latest senior Iranian military figure targeted by Israel in its monthlong bombardment of Iran.

Mr. Tangsiri had been leading Iran’s successful effort to close the Strait of Hormuz to almost all shipping traffic, causing serious economic disruption worldwide and raising the cost of the Iran campaign for the United States, Israel’s partner in the war. Israel said it had killed Mr. Tangsiri in a strike on Thursday; Iran has not commented.

It was not immediately clear what effect Mr. Tangsiri’s death would have on Iran’s Strait of Hormuz strategy. Iran said earlier this week that it would allow “non-hostile” ship traffic through the narrow waterway.

Mr. Tangsiri oversaw the navy’s testing of drones and cruise missiles, according to the U.S. Treasury, which imposed sanctions on him in 2019 and again in 2023. He also chaired the board of a company that manufactured and tested drones for the navy, the Treasury said. Iran’s ability to control passage through the strait has been made possible, in part, by its use of attack drones.

Mr. Tangsiri had become a vocal presence on social media in recent weeks. He used his account on X to give updates on ships that Iran had refused to allow through the strait; to threaten U.S.-linked oil facilities; and warn the United States not to attack Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub.

Mr. Tangsiri was chosen to head the Revolutionary Guards’ naval force by Iran’s former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in 2018, and he was known for his aggressive statements asserting Iranian dominance over the Strait of Hormuz. Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in an airstrike at the outset of the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran last month.