March 9, 2026 - Daily News Digest

On this day: in 1847, the first large-scale amphibious assault in U.S. history is launched in the Siege of Veracruz as part of the US-Mexican War. 

QOTD: "Rodríguez “is doing a great job, and working with U.S. Representatives very well,” Trump wrote on social media Wednesday. “The Oil is beginning to flow, and the professionalism and dedication between both Countries is a very nice thing to see!”

TURKEY/NATO/IRAN/MIL - Turkey says NATO defences shot down second incoming Iranian missile
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/turkey-says-second-iranian-ballistic-missile-shot-down-by-nato-defences-airspace-2026-03-09/

Turkey said on Monday that NATO air ‌defences shot down a second Iranian ballistic missile that had entered its airspace and warned that it would move against any such threats, which increasingly pose a test for Ankara and the alliance.

The incident in southern Turkey marks the second intercepted missile from Iran in the last week. Turkey, NATO's second-largest ​army and Iran's neighbour, had warned Tehran on Saturday against attacking again, but it has not suggested it wants to formally ​call on bloc members for further protection.

A NATO spokesperson confirmed that the alliance had intercepted a missile ⁠heading to Turkey, and that it stood firm in its readiness to defend allies.

Unlike last week's incoming missile, which was downed ​outside Turkey, the latest missile entered Turkish airspace. Its fragments fell in a region sitting between a critical airbase to the west and ​radar base to the east, both of which are used by the United States and NATO.

"We once again emphasise that all necessary measures will be taken decisively and without hesitation against any threat directed at our country's territory and airspace," the Turkish Defence Ministry said, adding there had been no casualties ​in the incident.

IRAN/POL/US/ISRAEL/MIL/I GUESS IRAN HAS SHIFTED TO A MONARCHY - Iran’s New Supreme Leader Fights Trump, Israel and Anger at Home
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-03-08/iran-war-new-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-faces-trump-israel-dissent?srnd=phx-politics

For most of his 56 years, Mojtaba Khamenei has kept a low profile in the Islamic Republic, quietly building networks of influence in the country’s security apparatus, its clergy and within its wealthy business elite. As he steps into his father’s shoes, he faces not only a US and Israeli war machine bent on his downfall but a population in turmoil, much of which is desperate to see the back of his regime.

The second-eldest son of Ali Khamenei — the Supreme Leader killed in the opening hours of the US-Israel onslaught on Iran nine days ago — Mojtaba’s ascent comes as the system of rule his father pioneered, and over which he kept a tight grip, battles the biggest existential threat in its near-50 year history.

Mojtaba Khamenei embodies everything that the many thousands of people who have protested against the Islamic Republic in recent years oppose. That includes the impunity with which his father’s regime frequently targeted and killed citizens and political opponents, and the financial cronyism and corruption that’s enveloped the economy.

For years, proximity to the elder Khamenei often brought access to resources. Mojtaba amassed a multibillion-dollar international property portfolio, but it also fueled the phenomenon of the so-called aghazadeh — the moniker Iranians attach to the wealthy sons and daughters of the architects of the theocracy, who are largely insulated from the privations the rest of the population have been forced to endure.

January’s bloody demonstrations were initially sparked by anger over the cost of living, but quickly spiraled into anti-government unrest. At least 7,000 civilians, and probably many more, were killed, according to human rights groups.

[A lot of what you’re going to read about Iran’s new Supreme Leader is going to lean heavily into invective; this is not to say that any of it is more-or-less true than anything else. But it’s not something you can use to base an understanding of geopolitical reality. You can’t call someone secretive, reclusive, and shadowy—and then go into a psychological breakdown. 

What I will say is that the selection of the previous Supreme Leader’s son, while anticipated by many, was not guaranteed; shaped as much by the necessities of Iran’s current vulnerabilitiles and a need for a speedy continuation of leadership with someone who is very familiar with the previous Leader’s relationships and thinking. There’s also the reality that offices shape their holders more than the other way around (usually; I’m sure we can think of one glaring example to the contrary). Iran faces many logistical, technological and intelligence shortfalls compared to the US and Israel. But contingency plans for the death of its leaders is something Iran has in spades. -mnno]

WORLD/ENERGY/ECON - Stocks and Bonds Slide Globally as Oil Tops $100: Markets Wrap
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-08/oil-tops-100-as-war-rages-stocks-set-to-fall-markets-wrap?srnd=phx-markets

The war in the Middle East sparked fresh turmoil in global markets as oil smashed through $100 a barrel, spurring losses in stocks and bonds. The dollar climbed against most major currencies.

This month’s slide in equities deepened, with the S&P 500 set for its lowest since November. Financial shares came under renewed pressure, with Jefferies Financial Group Inc. sinking on an analyst downgrade. Economically sensitive shares like small caps were among the hardest hit as higher energy costs prompted investors to price faster inflation alongside risks to growth. Ten-year Treasury yields rose for a sixth straight session.

“The risk-off mood prevails,” said Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Capital Markets. “Stagflation is the main economic scenario being discussed. Heightened volatility across the capital markets also serves to reduce liquidity.”

Markets have been rocked as the war in the Middle East showed no signs of easing, with a standstill of tanker traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz choking off supplies to the rest of the world. Saudi Arabia started reducing oil production, even as the kingdom rushes to boosts exports through an alternative route.

The Group of Seven nations is “not there yet” in terms of organizing a global release of emergency oil inventories in response to the Iran war, according to France. Oil pared its surge earlier when news emerged that the G-7 would discuss a possible release in their talks Monday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.6%. The Russell 2000 lost 1.2%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.15%. West Texas Intermediate jumped to around $100. Gold fell. Bitcoin topped $69,000.

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NEPAL/POL - A new Nepali party, led by an ex-rapper, is set for a landslide win in parliamentary election
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/08/nx-s1-5741598/nepali-party-rapper-win-parliamentary-election

A Nepali political party led by an ex-rapper is set for a landslide victory in the country's first parliamentary election since Gen Z protests ousted the old leadership that has ruled the Himalayan nation for decades.

The Rastriya Swatantra, or National Independent Party, formed only four years ago, had already won 103 of 165 directly elected seats and led in 21 other constituencies in the 

Other political parties and independent candidates had won 27 seats in total so far. Officials were still counting the votes Sunday and final results were expected later in the week.

The party's prime ministerial candidate is rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah, who won the 2022 Kathmandu mayoral race. He emerged as a leading figure in the 2025 uprising that ousted former Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Oli.

In Nepal, voters directly elect 165 members to the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Parliament. The remaining 110 seats in the 275-member body are allocated through a proportional representation system, under which political parties are assigned seats based on their share of the vote. On Sunday, RSP also led with about 51% of the 110 seats.

RUSSIA/ENERGY - Russia’s Key Black Sea Port Resumed Oil Loading Over Weekend
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/russia-s-key-black-sea-port-resumed-oil-loading-over-weekend?srnd=phx-markets

Russia’s Sheskharis oil terminal at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk resumed loadings over weekend, bringing some relief to the global market amid the Middle East conflict.

The tankers Psara I and Hanuman are currently moored at the first and second berths respectively, according to the ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The vessel Briont is also at berth seven, according to the port agent.

Resumption of flows from the key Russian oil facility eases some pressure to global supplies as several key producers in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, cut production because of the near-blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Sheskharis oil terminal has been shut since it was attacked last Monday, with drone strikes hitting six loading births out of eight, a person familiar with the details said a week ago.

Russia’s oil-pipeline operator Transneft PJSC, which operates the terminal, didn’t immediately respond to a request for a comment.

GIFT LINK: How the Iran Conflict Is Widening, in Maps
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/how-the-iran-conflict-is-widening-in-maps-c87df89a?st=4iNpJ8&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

The U.S. and Israel began pounding Iran from the sea and skies on the morning of Feb. 28, triggering a fierce response from Tehran that has sent thousands of missiles and drones toward Israel, U.S. bases in the Middle East and countries across the Gulf.

As the conflict—which President Trump expects to last for weeks—expands, we’re keeping track of the sites that have been drawn in across the region.

[lots of nice maps here for those who are interested – mnno]

US/VENEZUELA/LOL - Trump Leaves Venezuela’s Machado Behind as She Lobbies for Relevance
https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/trump-leaves-venezuelas-machado-behind-as-she-lobbies-for-relevance-ba7a1655?mod=world_feat3_americas_pos1

When María Corina Machado left Venezuela in December, escaping by boat and wearing a disguise, she hoped a U.S. intervention would oust Nicolás Maduro and force a democratic transition.

As the Venezuelan opposition leader prepares to go home, she will return to a very different country. Maduro is gone, but President Trump is now working closely with the remnants of his regime.

Machado appears to play no role in the Trump administration’s current calculations, despite spending the past two months in Washington lobbying for a democratic transition. Instead, the face of what many consider Venezuela’s legitimate government has become a spectator to Trump’s embrace of Maduro’s former top lieutenant, Delcy Rodríguez, whom he has recognized as the president of Venezuela.

UKRAINE/MIL/IRAN - Ukraine Helps U.S. Mideast Bases With Stopping Drones
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/world/middleeast/ukraine-shahed-drone-middle-east.html

As the war in Iran spirals beyond its borders, Ukraine has sent interceptor drones and a team of drone experts to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with The New York Times.

The United States made the request for help on Thursday, and the Ukrainian team left the next day, Mr. Zelensky said. It was expected to arrive in the Middle East soon.

“We reacted immediately,” Mr. Zelensky said on Friday evening during a train ride I took with him from eastern Ukraine to the capital, Kyiv. “I said, yes, of course, we will send our experts.”

The White House did not respond to a question about whether the United States had asked for Ukraine’s help.

The U.S.-Israeli war in Iran risks redirecting world attention away from the war in Ukraine. But it has also given Kyiv an opportunity to use its hard-won expertise and advanced technology on a new front. The country has eagerly offered to help U.S. forces and their Middle Eastern allies defend against the sorts of Iranian-designed attack drones that Russia has been using in Ukraine for years.

Kyiv is hoping to score points with the United States in American-brokered peace talks. The relationship remains fraught. On Thursday, President Trump again said he viewed Mr. Zelensky as more of an impediment to a peace deal than President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who ordered the invasion. Mr. Trump has been much more solicitous of Moscow than his predecessor was.

US/IRAN/POL/ONE COULD ARGUE THAT THIS IS A PRETTY EXPLICIT SIGNAL THAT REGIME CHANGE ISN’T THE CURRENT OBJECTIVE, WHICH BEGS THE QUESTION WHAT IS THE END GOAL? - Trump vows control over Iran leader as death toll of US soldiers rises
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/8/trump-vows-control-over-iran-leaders-as-officials-seek-to-calm-oil-concerns

United States President Donald Trump has again asserted that he would exert influence over Iran’s next supreme leader, saying that whoever is picked for the role without Washington’s approval is “not going to last long”.

The statement on Sunday came hours before Iranian state media reported that the Assembly of Experts had selected a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the hours after the US and Israel launched a war on Iran on February 28.

Trump did not immediately respond to the younger Khamenei’s selection, but broadly said earlier that any individual would need US approval. Iranian officials have denied that the Trump administration has had any influence on the decision.

“He’s going to have to get approval from us,” Trump told ABC News, referring to a possible new supreme leader. “If he doesn’t get approval from us, he’s not going to last long.”

Trump added that he did not want future administrations to have “to go back” in the years ahead, an apparent reference to future military action.

“I don’t want people to have to go back in five years and have to do the same thing again, or worse, let them have a nuclear weapon,” he said.

Officials in Iran, which has launched retaliatory attacks across the Middle East, have repeatedly rejected the notion of Washington asserting influence over the selection.