The Iran War’s New Targets: Oil, Water, and Global Chaos
Israel and Iran are shifting their targeting strategy, moving beyond political and military sites to strike civilian infrastructure that keeps daily life functioning. Israel has begun hitting fuel storage depots around Tehran—gasoline and diesel reserves that keep transportation and logistics running.
Iran, meanwhile, has expanded its targeting beyond Israel to include Gulf infrastructure. A drone strike hit a desalination facility in Bahrain, an alarming escalation in a region where countries like Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE rely heavily on desalination for drinking water and basic survival.
At the same time, the Persian Gulf has effectively been closed to major shipping for ten days, preventing roughly 150 million barrels of oil from reaching global markets. Prices now exceed the $100 range even without direct hits to oil production facilities. If infrastructure targeting continues to escalate, the economic and humanitarian consequences could grow rapidly.
Comments (36)
as a fellow Gen Xer, I am dismayed that you've adopted the youngin's "on accident" malapropism.
Please stop talking about military affairs
Interesting how oil jumped to $110 in early trading (Sunday night in the USA)… and then closed Monday in the US at around $87.
Please analyse how food is getting into the Persian gulf states. I have friends who are running out of food in the UAE. Water is essential but so is food
Brutal to consider. I love the delicate sense of life in those cities. Bad leaders be damned, the people across the Middle East are lovely. As titillating as war gaming is, it’s a horror beyond imagining to consider all of this. Sanity and justice cannot come too soon.
Peter looked really good.
Again, the Straits of Hormuz have not been "officially" shut down. It is the shipping insurers that have done that by rescinding insurance contracts until they have enough reserves in the bank to cover catastrophic losses due to war damage to the ships. "Whats going on with shipping" on YouTube.
Like Russian oil facilities, the Gulf states shutting down their wells (no place to put it) will take weeks to months to start back up again. Some of the marginal ones will never come back online. The longer this goes on, the worst it will get.
Next to Air, Water is our next greatest commodity. We can live without oil. BUT???
Takes oil or other forms of energy to keep water purification or desalination plants and pumping stations open, though, so....
Well, the folks who helped ‘him and company’ get into the government should be feeling the pain! Big surprise.
It’s a lose lose no matter how you spin it!
Since the US is essentially energy independent (as far as the middle east is concerned) we should have walked away from that region a couple decades ago. The US wouldn't be in the mess if the US had just washed it's hands of that region. That region is just not our problem at this point.
it's all about epstein
Is the premise here that if the U.S. bombs Iran hard enough everyone suddenly plays nice? History suggests otherwise. More likely Iran doubles down through its proxies and every asymmetric tool it has to disrupt global stability. That drives oil prices higher—benefiting Russia—and could weaken Western resolve around Ukraine, particularly when it comes to striking Russian infrastructure.
If you thought russian oil mattered to global supply from a western perspective you must be time travelling from 2001
The fertilizer situation is a catastrophe… I feel like the president should be held accountable personally for the increased cost in all of these Commodities. Oil going north of $100 a barrel just prior to planting season and the ramping up of construction season in the United States was a horrible shortsighted and completely obvious consequence of starting another Middle Eastern war.
He should be personally accountable for many other things.
PZ what does $200/bl oil look like for the world economy
At various increasing $/bbl values other sources come online because they become economically viable. A whole lot of US oil (and oil from other counties outside of the Strait of Hormuz) becomes worth pumping, refining, and selling way before it reaches $200.
There is no way to undo what has been done. My only hope is Trump and Netanyahu will set a cut-off date and stick to it. The Iranian people are not going to overthrow the Regime. The Regime can endure any amount of military force. However, walking away will stop the killing and ...maybe...the Iranians will take a time out to lick their wounds.
Trump will probably keep bombing everything until they give him that Nobel peace prize.
So Iran is doing what they were always planning to do. Too bad there wasn't a previous president in 47 years that could have stopped Iran before it got to this point huh?
You mean other than the rascist, RAPIST, narcissistic, thieving, criminal, traitor pig/s we have NOW??? Geee,....it's a stretch, but maybe its all fucking illegal since the CIA's overthrow of Mossadegh anyway!
Is America great again yet?
Were we ever? The consequences of actions by our CIA in the 1950s (the era MAGA lionizes) lead directly to the Iran that exists today.
Can you cover how the oil shock will affect different regions of the world?
US is currently a significant petro and natural gas exporter, so no shortage here. Price is a function of global supply, however. Pricing you are right. Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz is exactly what one would expect over the last 40 years. I can’t understand if Washington is surprised. Main limit on Iran is most of their exports go through the same Straits.
Thanks for the insights on this Peter, however confronting they may be.
What would happen in the case of a prolonged closure of the straits ? Like what is the threshold is it 2 months 4 months or more ? And as counties such as China and Japan accumulate “missing” supplies during that period Wouldn’t they cause a price increase in global pricing of oil ? And in that case the US could simply ban exports (although maybe tough politically but in such scenario maybe would be needed!) What would be the impact on the global economy and on the American economy and taxpayer ? Even with export controls we are looking at expensive cars and computers and everything The US does have food security (and correct me if I am wrong on that but I don’t think so) and water security but the economy what would be the case for the economy and the average American?
Techincally, I think the Iranians have stated the strait is open to all except US and Israeli ships. However, the insurance companies and shipping companies aren't buying it. They figure a war zone is a war zone, so ...no go.
Can't drink oil.
I just heard that by 2050 we may reach an average of +3°C of global heating, and that bankers and the insurance industry in the UK estimate this could mean a death toll of around 4 billion people — roughly half of the Earth's population. I don’t think this would all happen overnight in 2050. It would start much earlier — in fact, it’s already starting now. So it seems we are right on schedule when desalination plants are being destroyed. Let’s see who will be the last ones standing. My guess is that it won’t be the bunker-building billionaires, but rather hunters living in very remote areas of the planet.
A genuine energy price/availability shock during what may be a record hot northern hemisphere summer has the potential to be the wake-up call needed to inspire meaningful mitigation efforts. Hey, it could happen. If not there will be no very remote areas with abundant game that aren't eventually overrun by mass migration.
rip world
thank god only the current biosphere will be destroyed, the planet will recover in some million years, and life will start again, only without humans, not a big loss.