The Iran War, Day 7 || Bonus Video
Day seven of the Iran war has confirmed a drop in Iran's missile attacks, but drones remain the larger long-term threat. The complication that I'll be following closely is China's role. With Chinese shipments of drone components still entering Iran, the U.S. will have to decide when and if to cut that off.
Comments (10)
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Is the US inadvertently pushing China into a corner? Everyone was afraid of what Putin would do if cornered. What is China going to do if US action drives China energy imports to zero and we start blocking Chinese imports to Iran? What did Japan do in '41 when the US imposed oil embargos? Crisis can produce some interesting reactions.
History does rhyme. It's an interesting point and good though experiment. I don't have a nuanced enough picture of Chinese energy dependencies, but would be great to see broken down.
I hope an outcome from this effort is the Hormuz Province is occupied and controlled by friendlies that implement a defense system that ensure ongoing SoH transit operations indefinitely with the side benefit of being able to shut it down at will on our own terms. The yapping back and forth about regime change is cover for Iranian menace capabilities are not sufficiently degraded or contained - the destruction will continue until the remaining fighters are fully in hiding and dormant mode - then it is back to whack-o-mole. If the Iranian ports, shipping infrastructure, and or oil operations are taken offline then you know the negotiations and games are over because anarchy is only 9 skipped meals away. When will we see arms being provided to internal opposition? America is already winning tactically: more oil and gas profit, more defense orders, we are controlling the most critical choke point in the world, more shipping profit, deploying troops helps employment numbers, hostile engagement of this magnitude is a short-term gain but long term is much harder to predict.
Finally
The people i know in dubai say “other than flight interruptions, the situation is normal… restaurants and skiing still open as normal’
I know it "hurts" us to supply Iran with drone parts but isn't it a more immediate threat for the Chinese due to lack of oil shipments out of the Straits? If Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz for some time won't China suffer as much if not more than anyone? Or are the drones inconsequential to shutting off the Strait?
I saw in a telegram channel today before and after imagery of targets of the drones and ballistic missile strikes from the Iranian side on bases in Bahrain, UAE etc. First, it looks like they were surgical...specifically thaad radar, desert eye, etc being hit. Leads me to believe they are holding back there larger intermediate range stockpile until they take out enough of our early warning systems. The second thing I noticed was the cyrillic in one of the images, implying that Russia is helping them with targeting in the same way we've been helping the ukrainians with targeting with our satellites.
Seems to me that letting shipments of drone mfg inputs through will simply lead to intelligence on where they are assembled or where the supplies are stored. Either case means target rich information to act on soon.
So, even war machines are just in time. Oh well, guess they had better start confiscating washing machines for circuit boards. This all goes until the people decide to start massacring those who have been doing to it to them. Or no food, no water, no real government leads to an end. The chinese shipping movements are funny. The reality is the only way that the Straights could be closed would be mines and then the Iranians also can't survive. My guess is less than 2 weeks before there is no more Iran, just meaningless warlords all fighting for control of provinces to get big enough to be the mouse that roared.