My Script for the canceled Air India video
Pol or not, I decided I just can't bring myself to make this video. I'm not sure why not, but I just can't do it. It's obviously not the loss of life, I talk about war all the time, and I have no problem with talking about older accidents, in fact there are two I would like to get into, however this one centers around a particularly bad topic and I don't have an answer for how to avoid it, or a solution. Nobody does, although some will claim to. So instead of putting out a video I'll just give you guys the unfinished (it will never be finished) script which is sort of a general outline of what I was going to talk about. I wrote this last night, but again, this is the end of this subject on this channel.
Greetings this is Greg,
As reported by CNN, the Wall Street Journal and others, the preliminary report for Air India 171 shows that the fuel control switches were in the cutoff position when the plane crashed.
It pains me to say this, but that means that by far the most likely scenario here is one of pilot suicide/homicide.
Let me explain. On a normal flight, the fuel selector switches are moved twice, once to the run position on engine start, and once parked at the gate, back to cutoff for engine shutdown.
This is NOT a switch you can move by accident. It requires that the pilot pull it up against spring tension and then move it into the desired position. There is no way anyone is going to do that by accident, let along twice, once for each engine. You will hear chatter about the spring tension having been loose or some other feeble excuse, but don't buy it. There are two of these switches and both require a very deliberate action to cut off the fuel, even if there were no springs.
The switch closes fuel valves and shuts the engine down right now. It's not something a pilot would accidentally due from some sort of muscle memory either. They only time these switches are used in flight would be during certain emergencies like an engine fire, and then only while running an emergency checklist and with confirmation from the other pilot. The plane wasn't in the air long enough for this to have happened and even so, that wouldn't account for both switches being in the cutoff position.
One other possibility is that to slightly reduce the chances of a post crash fire, the pilots selected cutoff on both engines just prior to ground impact, but the video of the crash tells another story.
As explained in my previous video, in which I theorized, as it turns out correctly that the fuel valves closed causing the engines to shut down I also explained why I thought that. There is simply no visible evidence that the engine shut down from something else like fuel exhaustion or massive bird strikes. Both of those things would result in visible clues in the footage of the plane going down. We don't have that so it really has to be the fuel valves and now we have reports that the fuel control switches were in the cutoff position which fits perfectly with all the other information we have.
Sadly that leads squarely to the pilot suicide/homicide scenario. It's not pretty, but also, it's not the first time this has happened, it's incredibly rare, but it does happen. It's not something anyone wants to admit to, but it's really the only logical thing.
If there are two pilots and one of them wants the plane to crash, the other can't stop it. Put the fuel control switches to cutoff just after take off at an airport where there is nowhere to set down in front of the plane, and it's over. The other pilot might try for a relight by moving the switches back, but close to the ground there just isn't enough time to get the thrust back.
Sometimes these attempts are foiled by the other crewmembers, one incredible example of this happened on a freighter, but didn't make front page news at the time because it was hugely overshadowed by the death of a popular rock star.
If that's what happened in this case we may never know why. I can say that being a career pilot is incredibly stressful and that stress is absolutely unrelenting.
For example when going through civilian or military flight training there are constant tests and checkrides a failure on any one of which can cause a serious career set back and in some cases be career ending. On the civilian track it also means additional expense, which isn't trivial.
Now you might think that once a pilot gets through all this and gets a commercial license, and instrument and a multi engine rating the stress would go down, but no, it doesn't.
Every job interview is somewhat stressful, especially when jobs are scarce as historically they have been in the airline world. Once you are quote hired unquote, you can't really relax and take a breath either, because you have a battery of training and tests in front of you once again. Then once through that and on line as an airline pilot then, depending a bit on the airline, but generally once every 6 months it's time for another oral exam and a checkride in the simulator.
Airline checkrides are tough and with ever changing and expanding procedures it's hard to stay on top of it all.
Add in the fact that every 6 months to a year depending on age you need to pass a medical exam, and you have two to four times a year you're being evaluated in what could be a career ending event.
I don't think there is any other profession like that. Doctors are not re evaluted every six months. Lawyers don't have to re take the bar every six months. This is really unique to career pilots. I'm not saying it's bad or wrong, but I am saying it's stressful.
Add in the normal stresses of adult life, which are often magnified by long work days and long stretches away from home and it takes a toll.
I personally know at least a half dozen airline pilots, people I have flown with who committed suicide after getting laid off. One was a horrible murder suicide.
One of my friends when laid off was under tremendous pressure from his wife to get another airline job. He got an interview, which was tough to get at the time and she told him not to come home if he didn't get the job. At that particular airline you find our right after the interview if you were hired or not, he wasn't and he ended his life.
Another, who wasn't a friend of mine, in fact he really disliked me, which is another story, got hired by the govt. but then killed his family (I think one child survived) and killed himself.
One had a minor accident in which a 727 was damaged on landing. He was busted back down to co-pilot and then we were all furloughed. That made him unhireable at the time, he killed himself, sadly with a gun gifted to him by another pilot I worked with, who had a brother in the industry who just committed suicide. I could go on.
I am in no way excusing this, nor in the case of the Air India crash do I know if it was airline career stress that caused what I think in this case was a pilot suicide/homicide, but whatever the cause, I think one of the pilots intentionally shut down the engines. I actually posted that theory here on youtube long before anyone else, and I'm very unhappy to see that I was right.
You will hear some chatter about engine mis matches, autothrottles and other stuff, none of these things could move the fuel control switches to cut off, that was done by a human just after rotation. This lines up exactly with everything we see in the video, the gear tilt, the R.A.T. deployment, and the slow climb. Beware of distractions, this one is a sort of worst case situation for the industry and there will be a lot of chaff and flares thrown out on this one.
Comments (50)
Just reading this hit home. Thanks for sharing, Greg. But yes, say no more.
Follow your gut.
So glad you did not make that vid. During my 40-ish years in 121 ops I have seen many “sure thing, pilot error” stories make the front page, then afterwards when the rest of the facts absolving the pilots is known the story is relegated to the back page if published at all. I am sure you’ve seen the same. What I did not say in my previous email to you was that those switches are likely interfaced via software vs hard-wired to the fuel cutoffs. There seems now to be credible (?) or plausible (?) evidence that said interface does exist and may have indeed driven the cutoffs to closed. Only time will tell. Perhaps CVR analysis will absolve or condemn the pilot(s), perhaps not. Either way, the best bet is to remain on the sidelines pending full investigation. Let’s not forget thought that the various corporate interests and perhaps even the two governments involved are often driven by self interest and NOT, repeat not driven by searches for truth.
Greg -- I understand. I think all of your viewers understand and respect your ethical and emotional stand on this crash. Regarding the stress factor -- it takes courage to seek help for mental health issues, even when it is available. I don't know what airlines provide for pilots, but it seems they should have a robust program. It wouldn't guarantee that tragedies like this would not happen, but it would be a step in the right direction.
It does seem as though a deliberate action by one of the pilots has moved up to the most likely cause. Even if the detents tabs or the spring failed on one of the switches, it seems highly unlikely that both switches could be accidentally bumped to the CUTOFF position. It would seem even more unlikely that it could happen to both switches over a one second interval, without it being obvious to at least one of the pilots.
Thanks Greg i have been a fan for years keep up the good work.
I agree with not posting this video. Props to you for doing the right thing Greg
Was one of those who voted in favor of the last one, have to say you were probably right to be hesitant - not just for the lack of respect in this tragedy, but with all the vitriolic replies that would result, with seemingly some people taking offense to the very idea of someone else having a different opinion or even just focussing on different aspects. I think you are right again on this one, staying out of the argument at this point. Thank you for letting us see this very personal script though!
I believe you made the right call on this. Juan did a nice update on the story too. Thanks for providing the script draft so those unfamiliar can see your reasoning. Very sad indeed.
Thank you Greg. I think you did a right thing.
I agree with the most important point, that this was deliberately done by one of the pilots. However, the switches were in fact put back to "RUN" about 10 seconds after being set to "CUTOFF" (Engine No. 1. was already in the process of spooling up again, but far too late to change anything) and were in fact found in the "RUN" position on the wreckage. The thrust levers were found near idle, but the flight data recorder says they remained at takeoff power until impact. Unlike the cutoff switches, the levers can easily be moved by impact forces, so it all fits.
I said it before and I'll say it again: Please be very aware that the suicide narrative is what Boeing desperately needs!!!! so don't disregard the very real and serious scenario that Billions of dollars of Boing stock will make their management pay for the verdict that they want/need especially after the 737Max horror show. I know you might not be into conspiracy theories but this is most likely a conspiracy pact with India. As a programmer I can confirm that even if the fuel cutoff was the cause then it's still very much Boeings fault to have a system that allows such a thing to happen and "when" it happens there is no alarm or warning or system failsafe in place to address it. In short when it comes to money there is nothing NOTHING that corporations wont do to push the blame onto the little staff members.
Thanks, Greg, for leaving the bark on.
It takes courage and candor to look at disaster square in the face and to call it like it is, good, bad , ugly... true things remain true.
I can't argue with your position. It's not that we don't want nor need to talk about this sort of thing; but now is not the time. We need to think about what happened and the actual frame of mind. What other type of function (muscle memory) would be triggered just after the plane is airborne? i.e. could it be a "brain fart" reaction of gear-up? It's in the wrong location; the wrong shape and in the wrong direction; but a fatigued mind does strange things. More data analysis required to answer that question.
ATC, ATP.. mental health is a real topic for discussion. the air transport system is under stress, maxed out it feels. Knee jerk solutions, no. Frank discussions yes. I appreciated your side of the story of how testing/evaluating has its toll and how constant that stress is for pilots. Personalities differ widely so, how this test/evaluation cycle is absorbed will differ. Human personalities are varied, we need to account for that - somehow. Again, appreciate your perspective on it.
You made the right call Greg. Probably best not publishing the video on this one. You’ll attract a different audience.
Greg- as a cardiologist, I thought I had a stressful job. I had no idea that aviation is much worse. Thank you for your service, both in the sky and in explaining every aspect of flight. You are a gifted teacher.
Thank you Greg. I fully understand and respect your decision. Thank you for sharing the script.
Thankful for you Greg!
Don’t force yourself to do a video on this, probably not worth it. I know within my circle of pilot friends (military mostly but a few civilian) there are just some topics we won’t talk about with non flyers about. It isn’t a written list but usually encompasses topics like this one where there is suspicion of suicide. Still, I enjoy your videos including the ones where you trashing your turbo vehicles
I really appreciate your candor and for sharing your script as well as your reasoning for deciding not to publish it. Maybe this is a good time to talk about pilot mental health issues in general. I know several pilots (and by extension, members of the military who experience similar issues) who hide their mental health problems and try to bury and cover the symptoms of anxiety, depression, adhd, etc. instead of seeking professional help because they fear losing their job. We've created a system where we've incentivised pilots to fly with untreated depression. The list of meds that won't get a pilot grounded is ridiculously small, so if you need something that isn't on that list, find a new career. There are people and organizations trying to change this. I'm not a pilot but I'm a member of pmhc.org because I feel so strongly about the need to improve how we address mental health issues in aviation and the military.
Thanks Greg! I can’t tell you how much I appreciate your integrity and you taking that direction. Like you, I’m appalled by some who are in our profession putting out such garbage. I’ve unsubscribed/unfollowed from some of the big ones.
I also think it's a very good decision to stay out of the fray. Most pilot "influencers" look ridiculous now and given how social media tides turn, the likely conclusion (murder/suicide) and modern sensitives (foreign pilots), who knows how that could play out.
Good decision, Greg.
If we like the videos you put out, and most of us obviously do, and the reasons why you do, I think we have to respect the opposite, this specific case, and why you aren’t going to. Just my opinion.
Greg, I can sense the pain you feel in your honest description of your observations of this event and the stresses often experienced by commercial pilots. We never know what quiet desperation our fellow humans regularly expedience, job related or otherwise. All we can do is try to keep connected to one another and be ready to support each other as much as possible. Thank you for sharing your thoughts and experiences.
Aidan, that's a tough one. It help to start by marrying the right woman in the first place. This is where a lot of pilots screw up. Before getting married, take her to an amusement park. If she complains the whole time, "it's too hot, the line is too long, the food is too salty, I don't want to get wet" or whatever, dump her. If she isn't happy when at an amusement park she will never be happy and will make you miserable.
My girlfriend got a huge kick out of that line. I took her camping in Wyoming for just the same logic
I feel I need to point something out here: people who are psychopaths do not have any inherent underlying sickness. This is why when they commit a crime they go to jail instead of rehab. Psychopaths know what they are doing is wrong, and they like doing it so they do it anyway ->this is also why they lie to cover their tracks. This was not an act of depression or mental health, as there are many other ways to kill yourself by making it look like an accident without a CVR recording the process. This was mass murder by a full blown psychopath. If you do some digging you’ll find that our profession specifically attracts these types. It starts with egomania, and I’m sure every single one of you has met a pilot whose ego walks into the room before they do ->this is a personality trait associated with these types.
I see a parallel to school shootings. There are the cases where the shooter wants to survive - psychopath. And the cases where the shooter plans to commit suicide in the end anyway. I'm not a psychologist, but the way I see it is that those people feel so miserable that they want to end their life and - if they die anyway - want to punish or harm those they blame for their misery. Ok, I don't think the pilot wanted to punish his passengers for unbuckling before he even leaves the runway or for switching off airplane mode while he's still braking or standing up five minutes before the doors open, but maybe he wanted to punish his employer? I think it doesn't have to be a psychopath, depression and frustration are sufficient.
Hi Greg. I commend your integrity and I completely understand how this topic could hit particularly hard. One of the reasons I like your work is I get the impression that the personality you show is genuine. Take your time and keep doing quality work. My one regret is that I didn't sign up for the patreon sooner.
It’s perfectly understandable to not want to publish this. It looks like it would have been hard to even write it, being so close to your heart. Take care and be well.
As much as I appreciate your perspective, I appreciate your judgement even more.
No worries, correct decision. Even Blancolirio seemed annoyed by the whole thing including the associated YouTube environment.
Thank you Greg. For your facts and analysis. Spot on as always. Only with the truth can there ever be changes.
Historically, YouTube has done everything they can to discourage creators from discussing suicide. Demonizing them is just a start. It would be very difficult for a person to find a video that discusses this accident as a suicide on the YouTube home page. The majority of the coverage that is being put in front of the typical viewer seems to be based off these fringe theories, because the suicide is just too “taboo”, if you will, for advertisers.
This is an excellent point. If Greg had made the difficult and uncomfortable decision to make and publish this video, it's unlikely it would even perform to an acceptable degree given the stress it'd cause. It's entirely likely that YouTube's all-powerful (queue eye-roll) algorithm might punish the channel for this video and make future videos harder to find.
I was one of the "no" votes in the poll. I think you made the right decision, if for no other reason, out of respect for the innocent victims.
You're doing the right thing. I know there's immense pressure on most content creators to always chase clicks and engagement. Sometimes it just ain't worth it. Respect.
As a man with experience aviating, what do you recommend for individuals feeling the pressures you describe? What would you like to see as an industry change to reduce suicides among pilots?
Now if the pressures are getting to be too much and you don't have family to lean on then contact the union. Most pilot unions have some sort of support network and from what I hear those guys take it super seriously. I do not suggest taking it to the company or to a medical examiner. That can quickly escalate the whole problem.
This script prooved to be difficult even to read. I understand why you don't feel ok by recording it and put it in a video. It must be very hard.
Greg. completely understand why you could not make the video. I now feel the way you do and it is just better left alone, at least by us. Why not make a video with highlights from you vacation, if you did any filming? Happier times, at least!
Greg, Although I voted 'yes', reading the script I understand why you decided not make it after all. Thank you for your work and keeping up the high standard you have set for your content.
Jon, I did see your post. I don't doubt that all of those things are true about the plane being non-compliant, but none of those things could have caused this crash, they are all essentially distractions from the actual cause. Furthermore, there is such a quagmire of rules and regulations that almost any commercial airliner that's been in service for 10 years or more can be found to be in a non compliant state if you dig deep enough. That's not the same an being unairworthy or unsafe, let alone the cause of a crash.
Good call. I'm glad you decided to let this sleeping dog lie.
How do you figure from my previous post about the aircraft being flown in a non-compliant state? Obviously that wouldn’t affect misuse of the controls, but might it be symptomatic of poor maintenance/operating standards?
Hey Greg, I absolutely agree with your decision. My respect for you has gone up exponentially. In a tragedy such as this, there should be a certain amount of self-control and respect for those lost. I don't believe it is absolutely necessary to know every gory detail of an incident or accident especially when there's nothing to be learned from it. Thanks for showing real integrity!
I think this is for the best, honestly. This is a tough tragedy to speak on.