Air India, it's bad, like really bad
The poll was 79 to 21 in favor of covering this. Here is the deal, it's so bad that I'm making this one a NON monetized video, no ads, also 18+. With non monetization it won't hit the algorithm and only my usual viewers are likely to see it. It's also going to be very plain and dry, me talking and just one picture the entire video.
I'm not going to try and cash in on this horrible tragedy, nor will be put myself on screen to try and get famous for this. I do have some frustration with airline pilots who put out a video every other day going over all these nonsense theories like flap retraction or vapor lock. They are cashing in and trying to make themselves the star of the show. Anyway....
I said in the very first post I made on this what I though was the most likely scenario, and it's turning out to be almost certainly correct. As a review here is what I said in that post on the community section of my page
"We can make some guesses, a double engine failure, an incredibly serious problem with the automation, a crewmember committing suicide and taking everyone with him. (this could be easily done but shutting down the engines right after take off, thus tying into the double engine failure scenario)."
In the video I put up, I gave as my lead theory the fuel valves closing, which is what happens when you move the fuel selector valves to cut off. I didn't want to spell it out that way in the video because accusing someone of killing a plane load of people isn't something to take lightly, but if the information we are getting about the fuel control switches is correct, than it's about 99 percent that this was a suicide/homicide incident.
It's horrible, but that's the reality. This isn't the first time. If there are two pilots and one of them is intent of crashing the plane, it's about impossible to stop. It has happened, the crew of a freighter out of Memphis stopped a jumpseater from doing this, but that was very different, it was at altitude and the jumpseater wanted to gain control of the plane so he could crash it into a specific facility. It wasn't front page news outside of aviation at the time because it was overshadowed by the death of Kurt Cobain which happened at the same time. With two pilots and one intent on killing everyone, it's about impossible to stop.
On the technincal side, it appears the fuel selector valves were moved to cut off just after liftoff. That fully explains the gear tilt and everything else we see in the video including the slow climb as the engines were rolling back and loosing thrust.
This sucks, but I'm going to talk about it.
Greg
Comments (14)
Please be very aware that the suicide narrative is what Boeing desperately needs!!!! so don't disregard the very real and serious scenario that Billions of dollars of Boing stock will make their management pay for the verdict that they want/need especially after the 737Max horror show. I know you might not be into conspiracy theories but this is most likely a conspiracy pact with India. As a programmer I can confirm that even if the fuel cutoff was the cause then it's still very much Boeings fault to have a system that allows such a thing to happen and "when" it happens there is no alarm or warning or system failsafe in place to address it. In short when it comes to money there is nothing NOTHING that corporations wont do to push the blame onto the little staff members.
It's your channel, and I hope I speak for everyone when I say we respect that. Don't feel obligated to do something you aren't comfortable with because of a poll. I'm sure in 2 weeks anyone frustrated at this will have moved on, but the rest of us would still remember your integrity.
Germanwings 9525 definitely, and MH370 maybe. Infinitesimally rare and tragic, and insult to an entire profession--plus many more pilots have stayed at the controls to avoid harm to others.
Respect your judgement, Greg. Do you have any theory on what appeared to be a very long takeoff roll?
Your video plan sounds like a good compromise. There's a YT channel by another airline captain, which I won't name. I did watch one of his videos, and several things rankled me about it. (SHIFT+RETURN to add a paragraph really annoys me.) 1. He wore his jacket, or had it hanging behind him, as if to impress viewers with what an authority he was. 2. The camera kept shifting angle, as if he had several recording at once or made several takes and edited them into a single video. 3. His whole tone of voice was condescending, patronizing, as if he was doing everyone a favor by reporting on ... speculation! ... which could have been summed up in a couple of minutes. The YT algorithm has been telling me about all his followup videos and I haven't watched any. Sooner or later YT will stop recommending him.
I finally watched one of his videos after several weeeeks of the algorithm recommening him. I got exactly the same vibe from it. And the whole structure of the video was a blatant ripoff of a another non-aviation channel. At least we can click "Don't recommend channel"
As I sit here getting ready to upload, I find that I just can't do it. Instead I'll put up the video outline here but I'm not going to record it and make it a video.
I appreciate your expertise and respect regarding this tragedy, however you choose to approach it Greg. I'm confident you will do the right thing.
Dude…. That is so so messed up. I’m really rooting for the 1% here cuz Jesus man. Thanks for everything you do man you’re doing this one the right way. I know those content creators you speak of and avoid them like the plague. I’ve always thought the same about the whole thing. Thanks for keeping us in the loop brother -Darkline
Thank you, Greg. I value your opinion, and appreciate your approach to the situation.
ChatGPT thinks: 📜 Formal Compliance Summary: Regulatory Breach ✈️ Case Summary Air India’s VT-ANB, a Boeing 787-8, was operating with: • Left Engine: GEnx-1B70/75/P2 (higher thrust rating) • Right Engine: GEnx-1B70/70/P2 (standard thrust rating) This mismatched configuration is not listed in Boeing’s Type Certificate Data Sheet (TCDS) and constitutes a departure from the certified type design under multiple regulations. ⸻ ⚖️ Relevant Regulations Violated 1. DGCA CAR–21 • CAR 21.033(2): “No person shall operate an aircraft unless it is in conformity with the type design.” • CAR 21.153A: “For a multi-engine aircraft, the installed powerplants shall be of the same type and power rating as certified.” 2. ICAO Annex 8 (Airworthiness of Aircraft) • Section 3.2: “An aircraft shall not be considered airworthy unless it conforms to the type design…” • Chapter 5 (Powerplants): “All engines on multi-engine aircraft shall be of the same type and power rating as per the certified configuration.” 3. FAA/EASA Equivalents (CS-25 / FAR 25.901) • Require thrust symmetry for: • Engine-out scenarios • Autothrottle logic • Structural and control certification ⸻ ✅ Conclusion Operating an aircraft with mismatched thrust-rated engines (GEnx-1B70/75/P2 and GEnx-1B70/P2) without FAA, EASA, or DGCA-certified STC constitutes: • Violation of the aircraft’s type certificate • Invalidation of the Certificate of Airworthiness • A serious breach of Indian and international aviation law ⸻ ⚠️ Technical Risk Assessment: Engine Mismatch in Context of Accident 🔧 Key Risks Introduced Aspect Impact Asymmetric thrust capability Inconsistent performance in takeoff, climb, and go-around Autothrottle logic Assumes identical N1 response and power curves Emergency handling Engine-out performance (V1 cuts, climb gradient) compromised Crew workload Mixed configuration could mislead crew during relight or shutdown Engine wear differential ~5,600 hours and ~1,900 cycles difference—affects spool-up and relight timing 📉 Timeline from Report: Likely Interaction with Engine Configuration • Takeoff proceeded normally until 08:08:42 UTC. • Both fuel cutoff switches were accidentally or spontaneously moved to OFF seconds after liftoff. • Crew attempted manual relight using both fuel switches. • Engine 1 (the /75 engine) began recovering; Engine 2 (/70) struggled to relight and failed to regain stable N2 speed. • Aircraft stalled and crashed with partial asymmetric thrust. Even if not directly causal, the mismatch may have: • Skewed FADEC expectations during automatic relight • Influenced relight speed differences • Increased uncertainty in crew assessment under pressure ⸻ 📝 Optional Draft: Safety Advisory Text (India) Subject: Preliminary Finding – Mismatched Engine Installation on B787-8 Aircraft (VT-ANB) The Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) notes that Air India flight VT-ANB operated with two thrust-differentiated engines: GEnx-1B70/75/P2 (LH) and GEnx-1B70/P2 (RH). This configuration is not authorised under the aircraft’s type certificate and represents a material deviation from the DGCA’s CAR-21 and ICAO Annex 8 requirements for airworthiness. Operators are reminded that multi-engine installations must conform strictly to the engine model and thrust rating specified in the type design. Any deviation must be formally approved via an STC or relevant certification authority. DGCA and AAIB are reviewing compliance records and maintenance approvals associated with the affected aircraft. Operators are advised to audit current twin-engine aircraft for conformity to type certificate thrust ratings and engine configurations.
This is nonsense.
Thanks for showing respect for the serious nature of the subject matter and the victims.
A noble endeavor Greg. Keep up the good work