New Promo Card Trends
Hey Guys,
As always, welcome to all our new joins this month and thank you for joining our community! I'm so proud of what we've built here from the coin making opportunities to the supportive community in a hard year!
It really means the world you all continue to support me while I pursue my passion and move people further from the Fifa Point addiction.
Now, I wanted to follow up on new promo card trends as there were a lot of questions yesterday. Learning these trends and why it works should answer most future questions. As much as I love to help, I feel best knowing that you understand why we do things, too!
1. The First Hour
This is our initial window to make our first flips. This works particularly well on weeks where people have saved packs. There is an abundance of supply from all sorts of packs and the 1st set of Lightning Rounds (50K packs) on top of that.
People continuously list and undercuts promo cards bringing down their price aggressively. Often times, the most demanded cards can rise after around 30 minutes. This is because the Lightning Round opening is completed or at least reduced and the saved packs are getting finished.
After getting coins into their account, people then go look to buy these cards. These are some rises from yesterday -
Shouted Cards
Fofana 260 to 320K PS
Ederson 140 to 170K PS
Ruben Dias 340 to 450K Xbox
Shaw 315 to 350K Xbox
Gundogan 230 to 245K (I'll chat on this one later)
The other big riser was Mount on PS, but I missed it. These cards can fluctuate rapidly, so you pretty much have to be constantly looking and nailing the low is vital!
These cards all moved like this within 1 hour!
Now, most of these worked out great, but we missed on Gundogan. We nailed the bottom, but he had a really hard time rising out of it. This tells us that he has significantly less demand than some of the other cards mentioned! He is less likely to rebound out of Lightning Rounds, the same way he could not the first hour.
This first hour flipping also works better PS than Xbox as the supply waves from saved packs are bigger on PS! I do my best to shout Xbox and we nailed a couple, but without eyes on them live it's definitely tougher!
2. Lightning Round Rebound
With some promos, there are not many saved packs or a low number of Lightning Rounds. This produces an opportunity to flip cards going into the evening. This week, it didn't look feasible to me as Lightning Rounds were in excess and did not sellout quickly. It meant there was a steady flow of supply most of the night.
3. Overnight Flipping
One more opportunity to flip new promo cards lies overnight between 12-4 AM UK. Cards generally decrease in this time due to a decreased numbers of users being online causing less demand.
If a card has decreased well under their peak, I usually feel comfortable buying in and assuming a rise when EU wakes up.
This week, we tried a few, but only 1 worked. Mount ended up being a tax loss as well as Cancelo on Xbox, but Fofana worked well going from 300 to 345K on PS in the morning.
Mount was highest on the popular page and I assumed his demand was higher. I think people (including myself) struggle to find a suitable position for him. If he had 4 star 4 star or increased defending he would be even more in-demand. I just like giving my thoughts here as I really thought it would work!
Here is a short summary (UK times) of how the market tends to look with new cards -
6:00-6:30: Plentiful supply and cards come crashing especially in weeks with saved packs
6:30-7:00: The most in-demand cards rise as supply lessens
7:00-9:00: The highest demanded cards retain value well, but the lower demanded cards lower with continuous LR
9:00-11:00: A rise on weeks where supply is lessened or low number of LR
12:00-4:00 AM: Cards dip with lack of users
9:00 AM: Cards show signs of rising as a mass amount of users wake up and continue Weekend League