Black Friday Market Outlook

Hey Guys, 

We have so many questions surrounding this event and I am going to do my best to cover everything in this post! If you have further questions, please ask! 

Black Friday should begin this Friday, November 27th! The event is typically through Sunday or Monday! They may do some additional Lightning Rounds on Monday for a Cyber Monday promotion. 

Black Friday isn't really a promotion as it's only about EA selling as many packs as possible. They don't give their users discounts, but they offer unique packs for the first time all year.  This includes 100K and 125K  pack Lightning Rounds. The incentive is big for Fifa Point spenders and they often sellout their supply. This is literally hundreds of thousands of packs all in 1 day. 

This has huge market implication as you probably know. Whenever we see ANY type of big pack supply it has market impacts, but this is much bigger. The market on most gold cards will get obliterated and any gold cards under 30-40K should see a steep decline. This is where supply starts to dramatically outweigh demand. Think of meta cards that are approaching that mark already like Ousmane, Allan, etc. 

Gold cards around the 100K mark always are interesting. They often see some bigger declines in the actual event, but recover strong after. This is a card like Joe Gomez or Son to me. They have crazy demand, but will still likely see a drop from the supply. Remember, RATING matters a lot. Gomez is going to get packed like crazy, so I expect him to decline during the supply. 

Next, gold cards over 200K will usually see only a really small decline if any as these are the most desirable upgrades. These cards this year include Kante, Rashford, Van Dijk, Varane. These cards are some of the most desirable in the game and upgrades many look to make. Right after opening their packs, they often look here, so you don't see the massive decline. They also tend to be higher in rating and harder to pack. 

Out of pack cards should really only go up. They are rare already and now you see a huge coin inflation and surge of buyers. The only thing to be weary of is TOTW cards that may make "best of". I would expect to see Messi, Kante, Rashford in here for sure, but there are many toss-ups such as IF Walker, IF Renato, etc. It really depends on if they go more by rating or price. Remember, they just want to sell as many packs as possible. 

If you think of OOP cards that could rise well simply look for rarity and some of the strongest in their respective position. RB Van Aanholt, RTTF Kessie, RB Douglas Costa, RTTF Zakaria. These are all upgrades to teams and there should theoretically be no supply. No supply and high demand = prices increases 

Black Friday also provides an extremely easy route to make coins through bidding. If we think logically, users simply cannot keep up with bidding for the thousands of packs all being opened within a short period of time. Many people are lazy and list cards on open bid simply to keep opening packs. You will find a ridiculous amount of open bids after the first 10-15 minutes of Lightning Rounds every hour. 

From here, you can literally bid on anything. I will likely provide a list on Friday, but it's really not important. You can try to win 83's at discard, 84's at at 3K, 10K meta golds at 6-7K etc. All you need to do is bid well under the buy now. I know many who sold immediately for the profit or if they have more reason to rise once supply ends that is an okay route, too! 

On Black Friday, we also see Flash SBC's! This has varied some each year, but we do see a huge influx of Flash SBC's similar to the Daily SBC's we've seen this year. This is a fun thing for the community and a way for EA to remove cards off the market. 

We can prepare for this by stocking up on rare and non rare golds with strong links OR common nations in uncommon leagues. I will be posting a massive list of these titled "Flash SBC investments". If you had the right cards last year, this was a super easy way to double coins on a lower budget. 

I expect the market to stay pretty frightened until Black Friday. As you saw, even after the big dip yesterday cards didn't recover. There are no buyers right now. I expect a small rise Thursday, but people will probably panic right into Friday morning again. A funny little market we have right now! 

I think this should cover most of the market outlook before Black Friday and of course you will get specifics soon, too! 

Jake