Radio War Nerd #318 — Emergency Episode: Ukraine-Russia War

Around 30 min mark there is a discussion about why Putin is doing this, or what his overall strategy is. I think the new Iron Curtain idea is on the right track. Putin/Russia are basically done with the west, but think they can deal with China and the rest of Asia in a more normal way.

My thoughts are all over the place regarding this whole topic. I'd be interested to hear Mark and Jonh/Gary's thoughts about the bigger long term effects of this conflict. One is just the slow decline of the US/EU/NATO as global powers. I think we are starting to see the "multipolar" world that has been talked about in the past. With China's rise, Russia not intimidated by the west, and the decline of US power, I think we are at the start of a new era globablly. Another example, Russia is booted from SWIFT, but they seem to have prepared for this. They are joining China's CIPS (a swift equivalent), and Russian oil/gas will be purchased in Chinese RMB instead of US dollar. Also, russian sanctions will hurt some Russians, but US/EU are still buying gas/oil/uranium from RF, and the Rusian economy isn't in some sort of free fall. There is talk of India being sanctioned, and there are rumors the Indian gov't will consider there own SWIFT equivalent.

Also for all of us that were around for the Iraq-invasion (a true invasion and occupation and illegal at that), a horrendous difference between Iraq and Ukraine 2022 is that at the time you could discuss the angles on Iraq with all people except for the bomb-loving liberals, e.g., Saddam gassing Kurds, US goals of oil theft, all about the dollar etcetc. Now: people are screaming like pigs if you don't equal Putin with Hitler. Had a conversation with a professor at a university. His is getting paid every day for being analytical. He screamed at me for ours and we really never got any further than the Hitler-Putin trope. I find that highly worrisome because this will lead to a grander war, since there are no cooler heads wanting to deescalate. What are you others experience?

John and Mark - since you have entered the business of being wrong, maybe you have landed a well-paid job in DC and don't read this 🤣. Anyway I am still not sure if we were wrong. I was also convinced that Russia wouldn't invade. Problem here is that all the NATO-invasions we have experienced have turned into occupation. My mental priming of any military attack would lead to invasion and occupation. Russia has been clear though that they will bring on military-technical means. I count this Ukraine-thing as a military operation, not invasion or occupation. Ready to revise in 6 months if Russian troops are still there and Putin reads the news on the only TV-channel, white cat in the knees. Until then we should say thank you to Russia for denazifying Ukraine. Our value-based governments are arming them instead.

I think the goal was to prevent any future theatrical releases of Disney movies within the Russian Federation.

At this point, what is the political objective for Russia? Is it to install a pro-Russian regime? Given a quick collapse didn't happen, Russia is going to have to hit even harder and things will get much worse and I don't see how they could be have any legitimacy after that.

I don’t understand how this war isn’t strategically stupid for Putin. Willing to believe I’m just not getting it, if someone can explain it to me. But at the moment it feels like the “Lessons Learned” room in the Kremlin (ep#67, “Crimean War”) has a big section on Iraq 2003 and Russia is going to copy the US’ dumb imperial war moves as well as its clever ones.

Fellas, never apologize. A simple "whoopsie" would have sufficed.

You guys should reach out to Mearsheimer, I think you could get him on the show, he loves to gab, I bet he'd do it. Somebody in the RWN tribe has to have a way to contact him and make it happen!

Thank you for this. I've also been following Mark's coverage on Twitter. You're both over-correcting, getting caught by the information warfare. This war is fucking terrible, but please stay strong and read more widely.

Brzezinski, not Mearsheimer: The Grand Chessboard 1997

I didn't realize this emergency episode went up until I found it yesterday, Sunday, February 27. I was waiting for you to announce it on Twitter or something. I would really like it if you covered the war as it unfolds, not every day of course but a weekly roundup would be good.

Time to start taking these 2 speeches seriously lol. His Valdai club speech/Q&A is a VERY telling, coherent convo about how Russia has the opportunity now to establish a new world order basically. Oct 22 2021: Valdai Discussion Club https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/vladimir-putin-meets-with-members-of-the-valdai-discussion-club-transcript-of-the-18th-plenary-session/?sphrase_id=1373679 Feb 24 2022 (7AM address as Russia invaded) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/full-transcript-vladimir-putin-s-televised-address-to-russia-on-ukraine-feb-24

You guys were right, just not thinking big enough! Putin knowingly provoked the US into sanction over-reach to precipitate a Michael Hudson style De-Dollarization. He's a Bin Laden-ist and Kiev is his WTC.

Operation Parakram in 2001-2002 was one such operation where a giant deployment for War occurred over several months costing 1800 lives, but no war Read more at: http://m.timesofindia.com/articleshow/45016284.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

This was HARD! Thank you ❤️

Poetic to have the podcast hosts talking to each other from either side of Great Lake Ontario

Thank you for apology x

https://twitter.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1497638225200001029?s=20&t=xJtbNtUnNC8Mzh7BwN-Dcg Scholz sending stingers.

Refreshing hearing someone just say “we were wrong” when’s the last time corporate news did something like that in a meaningful way

So Russia is betting on China and Asia. Are they sure that China won't stab Russia in the back?

Funny how Germany is always reminded of how bad the nazis were and antisemitism is a cardinal sin for which you must burn in hell but here is not one single word said about Russia, among other things, clearing up real nazis.

My personal prediction was that Russia (i.e. Putin) would declare those separatist regions as independent states and annex them just like he did with Georgia. I did not expect him to try to use military force to change the government of Ukraine. Even in the most optimistic military scenario I do not see how the newly installed puppet regime could hold on power when the whole of Ukrainian population hates them. He would have to occupy Ukraine in perpetuity. And to do that with 200 000 troops for a country of over 40 million people.How? How is that going to work? There also was the obvious political and economical fallout that this whole invasion would create. Russia will be seen as pariah on the world stage and will be isolated politically and economically. Also, there is a good chance now that Finland and Sweden will join NATO. So well done Putin. You played yourself.

There's an interesting, grim thing going on with the whole concept of "good intelligence" – I have nowhere near the knowledge of Russia to gauge their awareness of American domestic politics, but it seems very possible to me that Putin, et al, would realize that the best possible way to camouflage buildup for a war would be to get our government and media telling us "Russia's building up to a war." Who the hell would believe some Pentagon jerkoff on MSNBC at 3 a.m. pushing THAT line?

I've noticed the shift in Russia from its "neoliberal" Putin era to its "conservative" Putin era to his modern "fascist" Putin era. After Putin's approval sank after he tried to push though his privatization scheme to cut social security program in Russia, with the arrest and crack down on opposition last year and the most blatant election rigging in Russia with online voting since Yeltsin era. There is no doubting it anymore, Putin is an outright fascist. He's talking in genocidal language of exterminating entire nations based on wounded nationalism. I take this horrific language very seriously, talking about ending nations is not something we should block over.

I knew something was up when John said last episode "but what if (even if it's a 0.1% chance) of them being right for once"

Fog of war and all of that, though I haven't seen the two speeches, I would imagine that Putin may have had reasons for doing what he did. We may not know all of the variables is all I am saying. Does not compute!

You guys should try to interview Mearsheimer. When he's not being formal, he's quite entertaining, on top of always being insightful.

Ah for once I can safely say America isn't totally fucking up the world. Russia and China get a turn at fucking it.

"Putin himself, the grand wonk" -Gary Brecher

For someone as consummately well-read as Brecher, I’m genuinely surprised he’d never heard of Mearsheimer before TYOOL of 2022. Wonder if he’s heard of Stephen Walt.

I think Zelensky has acted with remarkable dignity so far. I can't speak for Ukrainians, but if I were a Ukrainian, I would be proud of his demeanor. Certainly better than what you'd expect from a TV actor. Also, I'd like to echo the comments on you guys owning up to being wrong- what I love about Radio War Nerd is that you guys provide an alternative to the Atlanticist line without getting into campism, reality denial, or nasty rhetoric. Your coverage of the Tigray War was a great example of that, and this is even better.

France and Germany had talks with the Russian and the Ukrainian leadership during the last weeks. So France and Germany seemingly did try to stop this. And from what I grasp, they tried to push Zelensky some weeks ago to implement the Minsk agreements. (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-russia-france-germany-europe-d9a2ed365b58d35274bf0c3c18427e81 https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/) That didn't work out and the Ukrainins are mad at the Germans for not providing weapons and especially for not cancelling Nord Stream 2. But I guess Nord Stream 2 is off the table now.

Withholding water from Crimea alone is a solid reason for a vigorous defense. Not sure why we so quickly deny that there are good reasons for what is happening.

Everyone I've seen online in left-ish and anti-US imperialist circles is at the ragged edge, everyone either accusing each other of being Russian apologists or trying to throw other people under the bus for not standing up to american imperialism. Very unnerving. People doing deep reading into everyone's posts and podcast episodes to find turns of phrases that could be objectionable one way or another. Once again I'm too young to really know so my metaphor might not land but is it how it felt to be a peacenik when the planes hit the world trade center?

I think that Mark's russophilia and fear of Ukrainian nationalists blinded him a bit. Kudos on admitting being wrong thou.

More apologies here than from all the congresspeople who supported the US invasion of Iraq

Great to have an episode out this early. It gives a bit of context, although this situation is really frustrating. But your judgement sounds correct. This does not sound or look like what Putin used to do. It looks like something snapped.

over simplifying quite a bit here but fundamentally, NATO was evil before and it is evil today, and it will be evil tomorrow. Russia’s attack today does not change that, nor should we so quickly forget it.

I don't think the neocons deserve any congratulations for having access to intelligence and not *completely* lying about it for the first time in their lives. It's not like skill or wisdom has anything to do with "being right" when being right means not lying.

at about 39 minutes and 39 seconds. American hegemony is starting to “make sense”? disappointment is an understatement.

Where do I watch the video of the shaky Russian oligarch??

you're not supposed to be mad at the townspeople when the boy who cried wolf finally gets eaten

Apparently, Russell "Texas" Bentley and Scott Ritter called it too

Great episode. Really helpful to hear honest reflection on how you came to your views.

Much appreciate admitting getting it wrong - this is exactly why I trust you guys. Everyone gets predictions wrong but few people acknowledge when they do. Looking forward to hearing more of your coverage and thoughts as things develop.

Is this how it felt to be a western socialist during the Cold War and see the Soviets doing a bunch of obviously reprehensible stuff?

I think what also triggered it was the discussion of reintroducing nukes to Ukraine at the Munich security conference.

Listening to the mea culpas for failing to predict the invasion, I am remembering remembering something a very smart man going by the pseudonym Gary Brecher once said with regard to people always looking for the subtleties, subtexts, and hidden meetings: “You should never ignore the obvious. The obvious is very important.” I think we’ve all been guilty of ignoring that lesson when it comes to this mess.

This is what I’ve been waiting for

Interesting read on three Putin speeches over the years on NATO expansion: https://spectatorworld.com/topic/putin-path-war-three-speeches/.

Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) Tweeted: JUST IN - Biden admin presented China with intelligence on Russia's troop buildup in hopes Xi would step in. Chinese officials rebuffed the U.S. and apparently shared the information with Moscow. https://t.co/VYLWCNGmyP https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1497230379807383553?s=20&t=ay3wPSk-SOR0qLFBwvAGDQ

AYYY the take I was waiting for more than anyone! Thank you guys. Mark and John what news sites, blogs, or substacks are good for updates viz the on-the-ground situation in Ukraine? Having a hard time finding good maps, combat-related and political analysis, etc. BBC and NYTimes are covering this heavily but their coverage is.... poopy. Also, big props on admitting that you were incorrect. This is why I trust you guys -- the honesty. Don't be too down on yourselves, nobody has a crystal ball. And as for The Blob being right on this, a broken clock is right twice a day.

This is supposed to be a pro-NATO pod now. Just fyi lmao

Been awaiting for this thank u

Exactly what I need right now.