Radio War Nerd #292 — No Plan for Afghanistan, or "Always Bet Against the American Elite"
Recorded: August 18, 2021
In this episode we discuss the major premise of America's colossal failure in Afghanistan: There was never a plan for Afghanistan, thanks to the brainless Blobbers behind the no-plan.
Previous RWN episodes on Afghanistan: EP 291; EP 287; EP 196; EP 130; EP 99; EP 71; EP 53.
Total time: 1:09:12
Comments (42)
Around 32:30 you mention Kelly Lajos (Lahos?) report on the McMansions of Northern Virginia. Fascinating image in the context of Afghanistan War profiteering. I’d love to read the report if you know where to find it.
Kelley Vlahos. We talked about it on RWN episode #36.
I think the contractors totally expected to be in Afghanistan forever, just like in many other places in the middle East. Also they have no incentive to seriously train the locals, because it would make themselves redundant.
Concerning learning about Money, core-econ might be a good start. Seemed to be less crazy free market worshipping than other economics courses. Also it's free. https://www.core-econ.org/
Just an example of how deeply entrenched the inability to learn anything by our wonderful state planners. Since 1958!!!! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ugly_American
John’s newsletter on this topic is terrific. I’ve been sharing around. Also I got my hands on a copy of THE TALIBAN AT WAR 2001-2018 - referenced in the episode. For me, a American layperson increasingly antiimperialism-pilled by reading and paying closer attention to our empire, the book is eye-opening at just how much simplistic shit our government shoveled into the public sphere after 9/11, and how ready most Americans were to slop it up. Our Western elites truly didn’t and don’t care to understand actually existing Afghanistan — their jobs depend on it.
I think it's important to point out that American elites have consistently succeeded in making themselves rich(er). Maybe you just don't understand their agenda.
One thing that Patreus was right about. The current Afgan government basically doesn't have an air force and air defences. I think they will need then really fast and for cheap. I can see the Reapers, Tomahawks and sanctions coming in fast. Maybe Iran can cut them a good deal.
Its like the US just invented a Time Machine. We're back to 1999 with the Taliban not being recognized and with the Anti-taliban Northern Alliance hugging a small corner. its like the war that was going on before the US intervention just got put on pause for 20 years and is resuming again.
This moment of consolidation of power in Afghanistan--and the continuance of war by other means and players--is of greater interest to me than the "how we lost" story, or the inevitable US "road back" to imperial power. Today, the _Financial Times_ is full bore with speculation about the Taliban's ability to keep the lights on: perhaps because the Brits have got their people out of Kabul? There are quite a lot of these moments worth comparing to the current: Mexico and Chile post-revolution, and even the Japanese hanging around Shanghai, refusing to surrender to anyone but the Americans. Very interesting parallels though, could be drawn between today and Phnom Penh in 1975. Yep--beyond Saigon--what about the evacuation of the defeated in Cambodia and Vientiane? The most compact and interesting account to me is George Hildebrand's _Cambodia: Starvation or Revolution_ http://libgen.rs/book/index.php?md5=5EBA1C7A53EAF3EF912881C4999F6693 Hildebrand might have been more optimistic about Democratic Kampuchea than we are today, but his scholarship possessed integrity, which is more than I can say for John Pilger at that time. For those whose familiarity with Cambodia in the late 70s/early 80s doesn't go much farther than the Dead Kennedys, I might recommend Michael Vickery's _Cambodia 1975-1982_ http://libgen.rs/book/index.php?md5=F1143E1AD7E991519A82890E74D48051 Vickery's chapter: "Problems of Sources and Evidence" is particularly recommended, but the entire book is worth a read, and it covers the same events that Hildebrand does. Finally, for deeper background on Cambodia pre-1975, I'd point folks to Malcolm Caldwell's _Cambodia in the Southeast Asian War_ http://libgen.rs/book/index.php?md5=55688A995E8EF31B54496F11BF5A01F0 Some will recall that Caldwell was assainated in Phnom Penh in 1979, most likely by forces friendly to the Vietnamese. Caldwell was on a press tour of Cambodia with journalists Elizabeth Becker and Richard Dudman, whose cautious reports were published in the Washington Post and St. Louis Post-Dispatch. This moment turned out to be the prelude to the invasion, which was ultimately to drive the DKs from power. If there's more interest than trolling, I'd consider sharing additional primary sources.
Mark, I’d love a Rochester fauna update
Afghanistan. 20 fucking YEARS later. I remember telling a US veteran I was working alongside on 9/12/2001 that A: We were about to go to war there for spurious and concocted reasons, and B: It wouldn't end any better for the average American like him than it had for the foot soldiers of USSR, Great Britain or the empire of Alexander the moderately impressive. He gritted his teeth and resisted the patriotic urge to beat me down, despite what the cable TV news and AM radio talk show hosts were telling him... I won't be asking him if he now concurs as I went to his funeral 4 years ago. Thanks for reminding me of Jack Vance's existence. He makes an interesting change from William Gibson, Neal Stephenson, Terry Pratchet & Larry Correia on whom I have binged the last year and a half. "Decorum, after all, was a more subtle and ultimately more satisfactory weapon than high feelings and improper conduct" -Jack Vance https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B007V7VC8O?storeType=ebooks
What comes out of the elite embarrassment? What are they embarrassed about?
Mark: "It was mostly financed by debt... Investors in that debt make a lot of money." Bingo. It's probably no surprise that the Hamiltonian revival was in full swing in the early 2000s among policy elites. Acquiring debt for debt's sake in order to tie the financial elite into the military establishment goes straight to Hamilton. The only difference is he was explicit about his goals.
Regarding the claim that the Taliban refused to hand over Bin Laden to the Americans. I thought the Taliban agreed to hand over Bin Laden on the condition that the US presented proof that he actually did orchestrate the 9/11 attacks?.
I believe the conditions were that the Taliban would hand over Bin Laden to a third party if proof were provided because hospitality demanded they didn't hand him over directly.
I remember all the op-eds scratching their heads in the aughts writing things about how gee, what DO you do with a place like Afghanistan??? It's so DIFFERENT
Open repost this immediately
Very timely episode guys. Of course nobody will be held accountable for this monumental failure.
A RWN episode about south Vietnam (1973-75) and Afghanistan (1989-1992) would be nice.
It would be awesome to get Anatol back for a history of the post-Soviet period of the civil war in Afghanistan.
Not sure how anyone can look into Afghanistan war profiteering and not become another Lenin.
It's why people don't want to know about the crimes of the ruling class. They don't want to know, they don't want to believe, they take it as an article of faith that people with money and power deserve to have money and power and they use it responsibly... If you accept the fact that the world is unspeakably rotten and corrupt by design, you must also accept that the current global order is illegitimate and evil and the only moral course of action is to oppose and undermine it in any way possible. I know Dolan and Ames often shake their heads at leftists decrying false consciousness, with good reason, but it is true that all these other arbitrary ethnic and sectarian divisions and feuds between people are petty and ridiculous compared to the reality of class war. Unfortunately it's almost impossible for people to think that way because it's not how anyone outside the ruling class experiences the world. The bosses typically stand in solidarity when it counts, but not anyone else.
Late in the ‘cast, John was getting flustered reading the wiki on Dyncorp’s “controversies,” so I opened the page to read along. When he got to the Bosnian minor sex traffic ring, the stereo effect of debasement and pusillanimous coverup overwhelmed me and I had to stop. Bog, scoop our wretched species from off the ground and hurl us into the mother-fucking sun.
Michael Ignatieff is indeed Canadian. He was one of the gaggle of Liberal leaders who lost to Harper.
Ignatieff I think was one of the leaders of the Liberal Party of Canada during that weird period between Chrétien and Trudeau fils, and got totally *smoked* by Harper. He can get fucked at his leisure. edit: yeah he lost his own seat in the 2011 election, and that was that year that the Conservatives won and the NDP got the balance of power, which is as close as you get to a sack of the QB in canuck politics
"the Talibans of the time refused to give up Bin Laden" I guess insofar that their terms to give him to Saudi for a muslim trial *and* stop bombing immediately were too onerous for the US?
Wow I was just going through War Nerds previous Afghan output in a big binge last night, thanks for providing some extra content for us then tonight.
Same. I'm glad I'm not the only one. I only went back over the last year. Maybe later I'll go back deeper.
I refuse to believe that US/Nato didn't have a plan. They've got more staff colleges than I could count and no-one managed to come up with a plan? I've read that there are plans on how to counter an alien invasion, but these strategic geniuses couldn't work out a plan for Afghanistan? Incredible :)
Setting $2 trillion on fire like joker was the plan
I didn't realize it was Mark scoffing at the Petraeus remarks until he said to turn it off, I thought NPR had really gone off the rails 😅
there was never A Plan but there were dozens of plans to grift and extract
I'll never forget Bush saying getting Osama wasn't a priority. I was shocked at how honest that was.
The Taliban offered up bin laden, just not unconditionally https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/oct/14/afghanistan.terrorism5
It's even worse. There was a truce with the Taliban to stays out of Kabul and big cities after the US invaded and occupied the place. The Taliban could then stay in the villages and do their thing. since this deal was kept under the radar the occupying forces started shooting Taliban people after 2 years and then the resurgence started in 2005. "The Pakistani military and intelligence services negotiated an end to the stalemate. The United States would be allowed to take power in Kabul and install a president of their choice. In return, the Taliban leaders and rank and file would be allowed to go home to their villages or into exile across the border in Pakistan. This settlement was not widely publicized in the US and Europe at the time, for obvious reasons, but we reported on it, and it was widely understood in Afghanistan." Source, this great essay on the history how we got in this mess.: https://annebonnypirate.org/2021/08/17/afghanistan-the-end-of-the-occupation/
Also I think the powers that be wanted to pull those veterans out for use against China, our next contestant...
Yup, that is the plan--and this may be the Big One that finally results in American casualties on mainland US soil. Combine that with a probable loss to China in combat and a restive native population and things aren't looking so hot...
My theory is that America makes war to spend money.
i dont want to be the guy who says "this is like george orwell 1984" but this *is* like george orwell 1984 lol
Been waiting for your take on the events over the past week. Looking forward to listening - cheers!
Thanks for including links to past afg episodes - I'm going to try to listen to em all in sequence