Radio War Nerd #291 — Afghanistan Collapse, with Anatol Lieven
Guest: Anatol Lieven, author
Recorded: August 11, 2021
We talk to author Anatol Lieven, who first reported on Afghanistan back in the late 1980s, about the the shocking speed of the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan, and the collapse of US-backed Afghanistan regime.
At 58:40 - the Nerd & Ames discuss the latest from the Tigray-Ethiopia conflict, and the books they're reading.
Maps:
*Latest control map (as of August 12, 2021)
*Political Map (from our friends in Langley)
Read Anatol Lieven's books, including Climate Change & The Nation State, Pakistan: A Hard Country, and Chechnya: Tombstone of Russian Power. Check out his latest article on Afghanistan, "An Afghan Tragedy: The Pashtuns, the Taliban and the State". Follow Anatol on Twitter.
Other books cited:
"The Taliban At War" by Antonio Giustozzi
"Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia" by Ahmed Rashid
"Kobane Calling" by Zerocalcare
"Empire of the Sun" by JG Ballard
"City of the Chasch" by Jack Vance
*
Total time: 1:32:59
Comments (52)
Zag ik niet aankomen achter het paaltje en toch team security. Is echt het profiel schaken en lusiteren. Wat de potentaten Sudan hebben gedaan consultants haha, zou die never nooit doen. Die krijgt zo iets klaar niet eens omdat tie dezelfe school had. Dat hier zijn generatie ant live life loven is....
I thought Mr eBay learned his lesson after the ddos berghain heist. He has to pay for boom boom I am cool door hussle.
I thought war nerd (👍), kicked out of the KSA (👍), living Kotkins nightmare (👍), .....rather be associated with messing with the city to break the pound to be honest.
Yeah looks like a good deal pay later to get it of eBay....
Fucking hell just found my espresso machine eBay, yes true drifting in Japan was a reference to the Masai. (Peace corps wanted to also go to Japan..)
Go to eBay if you don't know how he thinks, but it might be to late.
Amarta Sen imho is proven right agency and security are a good starting point. The critical decision space is more complex.
Did some more dd into Mr. eBay and it's not good he sells to richer
Serious note , so the whole privatisation and rise of team insecurity. Is a bad copy from good holdings? If they get rewarded we need to choose who get rewarded???
If you know the traffic flow? What's the product your getting money for you work or stuff???
All he wants is that you buy more stuff, work harder and then sell them for the best price on eBay
I don't do legal advice and can't read a lot of small letters but for those reading this, your assets could be eBay's
I think we can officially declare the outcome of this war as: STALEMATE. The Talibs had the good sense to stay up in the mountains because Western forces would have slaughtered them if they dared to come down. Western forces had the good sense not to go up into the mountains in search of Talibs or they would have taken casualties galore. It’s only because the Yanks decided to pull up stakes and go home why the Talibs could come down from the mountains and roll into Kabul. In the great history of warfare, it’s quite rare for a war to end in a stalemate; but there you have it. It wouldn’t look so bad if the opponents were a more sophisticated military like the Russians or the Chinese. But when the Western force’s opponent-at-war are a bunch of illiterate goat-fu…sorry, I meant goat herders with only AK-47s and RPGs, that’s really sad.
They had been gaining ground for the past few years. The taliban was in control before we invaded they are in control again. If us running home with our tail between our legs is a stalemate what is victory on their part? Complete take over of the US government. They wanted it more. Afghanistan is 3 and 0 against world empires. Also what’s wrong with herding goats asshole it’s a living bet you couldn’t herd a goat to save your life. Politics are part of war even if you don’t lose a war militarily if you run out of the political capital to maintain it it’s still a loss just like Vietnam.
I tell ya I'm shocked, Shocked! that Mark Ames of all people should be silent when his Anatoly talks about a Taliban war on drugs. War on Fun? And a pretty pathetic one at that. Read below.. https://truthout.org/articles/before-2001-invasion-bush-admin-declared-taliban-an-ally-in-the-war-on-drugs/
Thanks for the Duolingo tip. Move to Montreal is my future and I need to brush up on my French.
Let there be chaos and there was chaos. The Swedish Aftonbladet is a reliable NATO mouthpiece. They publish this video as a proof of taliban violence. For all I can dee this could just as well be Maidan-like provocateurs firing on civilians to sow chaos. https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/XqoArm/valdskaos-efter-talibanloftet-det-har-var-helt-galet
To Drake Myers: War on drugs? Are your corporate media sources better than my corporate media sources? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/economy/2021/8/16/opium-afghanistans-illicit-drug-trade-that-helped-fuel-taliban
Yeah - deffo agree about gving this free access.
You guys should unpaywall this one! I want to share this one
We need a good guest on for more about the war in Ethiopia. It’s been a crazy story (horrifying as well) and it’d be good to hear from someone with extensive knowledge of the region and the conflict.
I still can't tell who the good guys are ? i.e. the most oppressed and with the fewest atrocities to their names. :)
Always appreciate the book recs, fiction and non fiction. Likely will read the GustoZzi book. Also look at what was posted TODAY: https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/619769/ Just lol at Western media. Its my fault that I wanted to end that miserable war that mentally destroyed my brother!
Jesus Christ, the absolute state of mainstream media… when all else fails, just start gaslighting the American people
Jesus this guy called it exactly in his paper: "These patterns, together with the constant contacts and conversations taking place between members of the government and Taliban fighters who, though ostensibly on opposite sides, belong to the same Pashtun tribes, suggest that after the US withdrawal, the collapse of the Afghan state in the Pashtun areas may at some point happen not just very quickly, but also quite peacefully, as Pashtun soldiers and police simply go home, while their commanders flee or make their own deals with the Taliban. This, after all, is very much what happened both when the communist state collapsed in 1992 and the mujahideen took over, and as the Taliban swept through the Pashtun areas in 1994–96 and displaced the mujahideen warlords."
Fantastic interview!
I wonder how stable Taliban rule will be
As you heard, Anatol Lieven thinks it will be pretty stable. He considers the Taliban unusually stable as Afghan populist movements go.
He hopes the Taliban will fight the heroin trade? What is this Anatoly smoking? Like Uncle Sam's war on drugs?
I think it's because they had previously done so. the Taliban successfully banned poppy production in 2000, only for it to resume after US invasion.
Love reading Vance too 😁
It'd be great to hear a show on the role of the protectorates, or tributaries, like Canada, in these adventures. From July 2003 to December 2011 via Task Force Afghanistan/OP Athena under ISAF, Canada played an outsized role in Kandahar Province. Besides various headquarters and support outfits, the Canadian Forces deployed an entire battle group (think Kampfgruppe, Canadian style). Canada even deployed civilians through CANCAP (Canadian Forces Contractor Augmentation Program) - personnel who, by the way, we rarely hear about in terms of what they experienced, let alone how they've fared since.
Commonwealth troops have historically been gung-ho for any project, even or especially the grimmest (Gallipoli, Boer Wars). What would be interesting is why and when they withdrew.
Love to have a journalistic outlet that posts maps. Love maps.
Doesn't everybody? People who don't love maps are weird.
That Taliban working from ground up is mighty impressive. In Sweden the media is screaming their lungs out about the fate of the interpreters in Afghanistan. Sometimes you get the feeling that they are building up a reason for invading the country again and why not, the reason for invading Afghanistan has varied between helping women, children, fighting terrorism, catching bin-Laden, fighting narcotics and what not else. Anyway, the comment about Taliban being medieval about lay down your weapons and join us would solve the problem for the interpreters. Other way, they helped foreign invaders and bet on the wrong horse. War is nasty.
It wouldn't cost the U.S. and its allies much to ensure the safety of their collaborators & vulnerable local populations. Either airlift them all to safety in the States or pay the Taliban to leave them alone. Certainly it'd be cheaper and less disruptive than fighting a war. But of course, no one in power really cares about the fate of these people, they're just looking for excuses to continue the occupation, like you said.
City of the Casche! Such a great series; the opening of book 1, which mark mentions, is such a good hook for the story. I'm still hunting for the last two in the series but god Vance is a great writer.
Great episode! Really wonderful to listen to you guys. Just downloaded that jack vance book mark recommended for drive up to Olympic peninsula to get out of this 100 degree heat in Olympia!
I was wondering what your thoughts are on Ballard! I LOVE his short stories and his apocalyptic novels. They depict landscapes so amazingly, and I find something compelling in his (insane? 😅) protagonists. I’ve never read his autobiographical novels.
Yeah, I like those too but I would say that Empire of the Sun is his best writing.
Great guest today. It's amazing that nobody in the US foreign policy establishment is being held accountable. (Or maybe it's not)!
I wonder was anyone held accountable/scapegoated for the equally shameful saigon retreat debacle?
I'm reading the paper by the interviewee and it's excellent. Also now is a good time for everyone to revisit Adam Curtis's "Bitter Lake." I believe it's on YouTube.
I have been looking for an RSS feed to add to my podcast app since joining a few months ago. Anyone know where I can find it?
At the top of the newsletter
Another potential benficiary of trouble for Ethiopia might be Egypt. They have a major beef with the Ethiopians over the Rennaisance Dam.
Indeed! Also thought of this, is Egypt involved with supporting and/or inflaming any of this? Much cheaper to do this than bomb the dam as they threatened in the past, piss off lots of Ethiopians that bought dam bonds and unifies them in a war against Egypt.
Was there a deal between the USA and taliban, whether formal or inform, to hand the country over to taliban rule?
I think the Taliban would regain power regardless, so why would they bother making a deal with the Americans? Especially since the U.S. has demonstrated that they can't be trusted to keep their word.
I’m across the river from Manhattan and my AC is busted. Also Paris sucks in the Summer.
Its terrible especially if you are broke like I have been every time I was there. Smells terrible. All good people leave city for August.