Radio War Nerd EP #503 — Ukraine War 3rd Anniversary: Blowback

This episode gave a great overview of the relation of the Ukrainian war to the internal U.S. politics and the whole dynamics. A couple nitpicks. From what I read, GUR/HUR has been much more intimately connected to the MI6 than to CIA. The latter had a stronger control of the SBU. Both focused on their respective "areas of expertise" -- CIA on the Phoenix style extermination of internal opposition and Russian sympathizers, MI6 on terrorism. GOP never-trumpers didn't fund Steele dossier. That only started after Clinton's campaign took over. Aaron Mate covered the story in great details. With all the right points made in this episode, I still see the missed opportunity to cover the bigger picture. This is a general problem with western coverage of the war. The optics are still rather myopic, limited by the western biases and probably the habit of looking down on other peoples. If we try to zoom out, not only the war started a tectonic shift in the global politics, it quickly (in historical terms) dispelled some of the foundational myths of the "Western Civilization." Just to list a few. Head of the U.S. Department of State talked about multi-polar world being the new reality. Most of Europe is destroyed economically with no feasible way to recover in sight. Russia, with the population of half of the USSR's, 10% of China's, and 20% of the combined West, was able to inflict a decisive defeat on the NATO forces and destroy most of its hardware without mobilizing the country. BRICS is now a powerhouse determined to develop with enough insulation from the West to be resilient to its economic warfare. More pertinent to RNW, before the war Ukraine had more tanks and artillery than all of the European NATO countries combined. Since then, they received nearly all of their stocks, plus even more from the U.S., and everywhere they could buy around the world. Yet Russia continued to outproduce NATO without mobilizing its economy. Overhyped wunderwaffe time and again showed themselves ineffective and inferior to Russia's much cheaper equivalents. The only real wunderwaffe ended up being the Russian layered AD. ~90% of ATACAMS, ungodly number of HIMARS, HARMs, JDAMs, etc. have been routinely shot down. On the flip side, Patriot PAC-2s and PAC-3s performed terribly and got mostly eliminated. Iskanders suffered nearly zero interceptions, not to mention Kinzhals. NATO armature generals performed equally terribly, be it West Point (2023 counteroffensive) or Sandhurst (Krynki and other river crossings). I imagine Martyanov would be a difficult guest to handle. But he predicted this outcome in his 2018-2019 books. Moon of Alabama has been generally spot on from the start. A semi-random guy Will Schryver produced stellar analysis starting from even before the war. These would be fresh voices Instead of listening to Ben Aris for four times. Sorry, Ben is my pet peeve. I think it would be great to have a guest to discuss these two strategic aspects of the war -- how the West managed to lose its military and economic supremacy vis-a-vis seemingly a much smaller and poorer player, and to dive into the geo-strategic implications of Russia showing to the world the new cloths of the global hegemon.

While the Ukraine war has had ripple effects and blow back for domestic US and European politics the same can not be said for Canada. There is no organized opposition to the war, not even from the right. A major factor is because the Ukrainian Nationalist/Fascist formation has been so successful in Canada. From the Liberals essentially creating the UCC to combat the left wing Ukrainians in the 40s, to every major party using anti-communism to beat back the left, the Nationalist/Fascists have always played an important part in Canadian politics. The support for the war has been almost uniform in Canada.

I think there is some real truth to the "there must be a glitch in the system" reaction from liberals to Trump - even now I'm seeing increasing commentary from non-MAGA sectors that think *2024* must have been stolen - there must have been a Musk intervention or Russia hacked the voting machines etc. Reality denial is not just a problem of the right - an inability to handle facts without elaborate cognitive dissonance resolving fantasies is increasingly popular with a broad range of Americans.

Overall an excellent episode. One timing note with respect to the first impeachment vote. The House passed Articles of Impeachment December 18, 2019. There was a Des Moines Register poll in January 10, 2020, showing Bernie leading in the Iowa caucus. Three days later there was a story that dropped claiming Bernie told Elizabeth Warren a woman could never be president. Articles of Impeachment were sent to the Senate the same week, effectively taking Bernie off the campaign trail during the last two weeks of the Iowa caucus (leaving the field open to doddering Biden and Mayor Cheat). Hillary's stupid documentary complaining about Sexist Bernie hit January 25, 2020. just a week before the Iowa caucus. Then we had all the shenanigans at the Iowa Caucus and the suggestion that any claims of shenanigans were "Russian disinformation", despite overwhelming evidence that the result showing a narrow win for Mayor Cheat was effectively manufactured (the head of the Iowa Dems rather than being punished for gross incompetence was given the job of executive director in New Hampshire in the run up to 2024, but was removed when the DNC voted in 2023 to remove New Hampshire as an early voting state). This is a bit of a detour from the Trump story, but it highlights how the Clinton/Neo-Con faction attempted to weaponize Russiagate against both Trump and Sanders. In the first Russiagate scandal in 2016 there was the attempt to smear Sanders through the Manafort-Tad Devine connection.

Have you ever considered having a Rochester War Nerd fan meetup?

Mark I noticed you called Joe Bidens son Hunter Thompson lol!

Thank you, great episode. Are you all on Bluesky yet?

The EU & UK's response to Trump reminds me of the scene from Peep Show where Mark, trying to not get married to Sophie on their wedding day no less, and Jeremy, who tries to help him one way or the other while holding in the urge to pee, are hiding behind a banner on the second floor of the church from the congregation. The two of them rapidly debate back and forth what to do, but they are so frozen in fear and utterly pathetic that ultimately Jeremy pisses himself, and Mark to draw attention away from Jeremy soiling himself, cowardly reveals himself and that his attempt to disappear was just a joke. He ultimately marries Sophie out of embarrassment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOhDX-z6WpQ Perhaps the Sophie character is Ukraine, played by the excellent Olivia Colman who later went on to win an Oscar for her role as the queen in The Favorite, but it's worth pointing out that in the course of the show she bears the brunt of having to deal with both Mark and Jeremy, divorcing the former despite giving birth to his child, and turning to drink and drugs as the show progressed. If for some reason you have never watched Peep Show I implore you to watch it, as Mark has very strong Gary Brecher energy.

I love how John reminds me that every person matters a little more

The Mueller Report explicitly never cleared Trump of charges of obstruction in connection with the Russiagate scandal. The fact that the Mueller report found no evidence of collusion, does not mean that there was no collusion. In the case of Watergate, it would be true to this day to say that there is no "clear" evidence that Nixon was involved in the Watergate break-in. There was never sufficient evidence to convict him on that basis in a criminal case. What we have is evidence of obstruction. The same is true with respect to aspects of Iran-Contra. George H.W. Bush was able to run-out-the clock and issue pardons to tidy the matter up (Trump AG Bill Barr played a key role in this process too). One of the aspects of Manafort's prosecution is that there was a successful prosecution for witness tampering (along with other charges related to fraud and acting as an unregistered foreign agent). The prospect of a Trump pardon was referenced in connection with the Manafort trial as an issue that impeded a further investigation. So Trump's claim of total innocence after the release of the Mueller Report by Bill Barr is about as plausible as Bill Barr's claim that Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide while awaiting trial. I could be wrong, and these are the things that you have to take on faith, but I do not trust or believe Trump or Bill Barr. Russiagate was obviously overhyped by libs and MSNBC as a way of excusing Democratic failures in 2016. However, given Trump's transactional nature, I think it's more likely than not that there was a corrupt bargain at play in the way that Trump was arriving at his foreign policy decisions. The reason that Russia was a focus and not Trump's corrupt dealings with the Israelis, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey is because those other countries are viewed as allies (and subordinate client states rather than as competitors). Even now, while revenge against Ukraine's NGO crowd is undoubtedly part of the equation, I doubt he is motivated solely by those considerations. Russia and Putin can deliver a lot more for Trump personally, and his network of allies, than Ukraine has to offer. That is part of the equation in my view.

Hey, in regards to the Sachs/Sullivan convo. I have a friend who was a LT in the US army at the time who learned about the invasion 12/9. So elements of US gov was well aware of the invasion way before 12/21. DM me, happy to show proof

It would be my right to tell my neighbour that it’s weird to vacuum their yard. But I don’t because it would be awkward.

Great episode. Small correction - it wasn't Kaja Kallas who attened the funeral of 'Da-Vinci' (Dmytro Kotsiubailo), but rather it was the social democrat and former 'coolest leader' in the EU, Sanna Marin of Finland.

Excellent excellent summary!! Needs to be free for all.. really recommend making this a public episode.

I'm going to relisten to this episode (chores have been taking my attention in and out), but nonetheless I'm about 15 minutes from the end and I don't think you guys have mentioned one curious little detail of historical context: Russia's SMO/invasion into Ukraine ended the COVID pandemic!

is the US going to become like Russia soon? partly because of you it's how I internalize it now that the gang is closing up shop and selling off everything relevant to the few richest guys on earth and firing everybody else

Very cogent analysis by the hosts. It weaves together many strands: Trump’s personal vindictiveness, Atlantacist ratfuckery, a decaying world order, and a MAGA movement aggrieved. Thanks!

Mark, Mr. Dr. the Nerd, with this perspective, does it make more sense why Putin made the decision to invade? Personally, after learning of the existence of the “NYET means NYET” cable, and reading it, I have felt that Putin has been just short of justified in his response. It’s at least a realistic response to someone who continually ignores your protests, despite over a decade of diplomatic efforts to stop trying to turn Ukraine into a nato country. Since justification implies a morally acceptable reason, I would not say Russia’s invasion was justified. I can’t think of the right word that would fit here, to explain the, “cross this line, and I’ll punch your lights out” nature of the whole thing

Fantastic episode.

The benefit to the Dems of talking about Russia gate is that you don’t have to talk about the rotten economic status quo.

I don't know if we've had the honor of 3 non-guest episodes in a row since 2016 or so. Can we get a month straight 🙏

Someone needs to warn Kaja Kallas; Pete hegseth ain’t afraid to hit a bitch

As someone who was in High School when Russia Gate happened, I have a kinda funny story about my exposure to it. I did the "Extemporaneous Speaking" category for our school's speech team. It's where you talk about random current events you pick in a drawing and can only use materials your team has pre-printed out. I drew a topic that was basically about Russia Gate and the Democrats. I argued that even if Trump had hidden connections to Russia, the Dems should ignore it and focus on topics the average American voter could conceivably care about. I didn't follow politics that much until I went to college the next year, but I found it a little funny how I came to the "right" conclusion back then by accident.

I hope there’s another NYC meetup one day. I only became a subscriber after hearing (accurately) that War Nerd has the best Ukraine war coverage - so I missed the last one.

The Democrats as the dead-enders in Berlin in 1945 has become the apt metaphor the way you describe the situation. And they even lashed out with physical violence at a concentrated group that they have always hated in spite of the drain on resources and the absolute monstrous nature of their actions.

I JUST GOT IMPEACHED FOR MAKING A PERFECT PHONE CALL!

It’s a shame Taibbi is banned from the show since he could have spoken in detail about Russiagate

One of the social effects I have noticed as a result of the Ukraine War is the near total vindication of John's original War Nerd character. Unlike any other conflict I can think of this war has resulted in massive numbers of complete idiots posting about how if they were in charge they'd simply outflank the enemy. In the early days people would give "advice" on disabling tanks. All shit that you would know is wrong if you even just watched *realistic* war movies. Those of us who spent our teen years reading about Vo Giap are cast aside in favor of morons who can't even draw proper maps.

I usually take everything the Ukrainians and western allies say as a projection onto Russia, of how they view themselves

Best part about the news is that I get older and the news stays the same

I subscribed to the $5.00 level, which is described as "$5 per Per Show (maximum 2 paid shows per month)". I don't understand what this means. All the posts appear to be unlocked... which is great!... but am I being charged for all the shows I listen to? How does this work?