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Copying the Shadow Fleet - transcript.pdf 27.4 KB
August 28, 2026

Global Shipping Comes Under Attack || Aug 28, 2026

While oil is still moving through the Strait of Hormuz, flows remain a fraction of pre-war levels.

Some tankers have made it through by using tactics similar to the shadow fleet, obscuring their movements to avoid detection. Once the tankers clear the Strait, they conduct sea-to-sea transfers under American protection. But this strategy is extremely expensive, and the U.S. cannot sustain it indefinitely.

More importantly, it demonstrates how difficult it is for even the world’s most powerful navy to protect critical maritime chokepoints from relatively small-scale disruptions.

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Comments (35)

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Braxton Mosack · September 5, 2026

WSJ is reporting a large amount of oil is getting out and that the US blockade is working. Looks like the administrations numbers are closer than what has been assumed

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Rob Morris · August 31, 2026

The only way to resolve this is full scale invasion of offending countries. And since that is not going to happen. The only real choice is either pay for transit or just leave them to their own demise.

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Mark Scheithe · August 31, 2026

Peter please revisit the Venezuelan oil Trump says will be the answer to gas prices.

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Connor Smith · August 29, 2026

Putting oil to the side a little. Can the 100k plus companies within AI supply chain survive via plane transport or does it 100% need to be global shipping?

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john yawin · August 28, 2026

Whatever. I canceled my subscription before it renews automatically in October. Until then, I'll continue getting these videos.

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Frostback · August 28, 2026

Canada to rename Lake Erie to "Lake Epstein"

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Peter · August 28, 2026

How about Canada renaming Lake Superior---- Lake Obama. Watch Trump lose his mind. Oh , wait. He already did that.

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Gil Bernal · August 28, 2026

I was in San Diego a few weeks back and noticed that CV-70 and CV-71 (Nimitz class carriers) are in port just hanging about. Maybe Hegseth could load them full of testosterone filled folks and send them on over to Hormuz. (Though I think both those carriers are normally utilized for Pacific fleet work).

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Geeeebar · August 28, 2026

If only the incompetent fools in the White House would have took notes and listened to Peter’s analysis video back in June 19, 2025, we wouldn’t be in this mess now. I can’t believe the level of stupidity and arrogance in this administration!

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Cordyceps · August 29, 2026

Zeihan 2028 please.

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JohnDuguid · August 28, 2026

I can just hear the conversation in the oval office. Let's tie up those military assets to keep oil prices as low as possible until the mid-term elections. We'll just pile the cost onto the deficit. Tell the Americans that we've won and that the lack of an oil price spike validates it. Besides, Americans are such fools that we can tell them anything and they'll fall for it, hook, line and sinker.

C
Cordyceps · August 28, 2026

“Debearded Peter isn’t real, he can’t hurt you.”

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Cordyceps · August 29, 2026

Debearded Peter: “your world is ending and everything you know and love will die.”

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Mr. Magoo34 · August 28, 2026

So... invest in the US, Permian Basin oil and gas development. Thank you.

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Morgan Sean Gibbs · August 28, 2026

Who tf is this guy?

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HippoPigaMoose · August 28, 2026

Looks like Peter lost a bet again...

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Michel Fortier · August 28, 2026

Just think what the real cost of that crude when you take into consideration the cost of having the military escort these ships. and the US taxpayer is get the short end of the stick. Add that military cost the the numbers I'm hearing is around $140/barrel.

o
oldwhiteguy · August 28, 2026

Korea and Japan should develop auto drone ship protection Costs should be minimal, profits great.

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Lee Jacobs · August 28, 2026

The choke point vulnerabilities Peter is referring to have always been there. Take a page out of history with the Bribery Pirates, destroy their bases of operations making it more painful to be pirates than it's worth. Something we could have done to the Somali pirates in 2010 but Hilary Clinton nixed the plan. We are referring to a places on earth where the government institutions are weak, corrupt, or non existent and the rule of law as we understand it does not exist. Where strength and violence are respected and diplomacy is considered begging. Americans who have never been there and have lived in a peaceful society all their lives do not understand this.

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Marco B. · August 28, 2026

So...YOU would have advocated invading Somalia to get rid of some freelance pirates, huh???

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Richard DeLotto · August 28, 2026

So, why isn't the price of oil MUCH higher?

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Geeeebar · August 28, 2026

Maybe a panicked, reckless release of strategic reserves around the world? It won’t last is my guess. I have a buddy who’s high up in an Alberta oil company and they are making mucho sweet moola right now….

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Fred Lindberg · August 28, 2026

Easy, we just strategically rename each of the choke points to American whatever. Problem solved!

F
Frostback · August 28, 2026

The "Bab-al Ameridab". Has a nice ring to it. That should scare off the pirates.

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Greg Collins · August 28, 2026

Sounds like investing in maritime insurance carriers. Their rates will skyrocket

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AlJASillySTEMGuy · August 28, 2026

Peter, wouldn't the costs of maintaining military resources at the Strait of Hormuz be mostly a matter of moving them around on a spreadsheet? They still would be patrolling and training anyway. The cost would come from continually lobbing ordnance at the Iranians. Which we have been. Perhaps if the Brits had maintained their seafaring traditions and kept up their fleet, the Bab al-Mandab Strait wouldn't be such a problem. Maybe the French can take on that job, but would anyone want to? Our dear leader burnt those bridges. Oh, yeah, you scared the bejesus out of me at the beginning of the video.

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Brian B · September 4, 2026

French wouldn't want to because they can sit behind the USA and get it for free. Until they can't....

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GasMan · August 28, 2026

If anything is "incredibly stupid" to do, Trump will do it.

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Tigran Martirosyan · August 28, 2026

“I see that strategically as incredibly stupid, so wouldn’t count on that happening ..” - ha ha haha. HA HA HAA HA.

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Michael Thomas · August 28, 2026

What a strategic blunder, who couldn’t see this coming when there are no adults in the room.

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8675309 · August 29, 2026

Are you talking about Peter's beard!

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Eric Godat · August 28, 2026

If the the new normal is constrained by the US Fleet,to protect 2 vital ways, certainly that is reason to ask allies to deploy a few destroyers in a coalition?

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Freebeard · August 28, 2026

So the "America First" president is tying up finite military assets and spending our tax dollars on protecting illicit oil shipments to foreign countries, some of which are adversarial to the US. Yeah, that's about par for the course for this administration.

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LumenM · August 28, 2026

Have a safe✈️ Peter ... 👍 ... 👉

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James Riley · August 28, 2026

NOT THE BEARD!!!