Relocate or Move On from the Middle East || Aug 24, 2026
Following the dumpster fire that was the Iran war, the U.S. is contemplating how and where to redeploy forces to the Middle East.
Iran has demonstrated an increasingly capable drone arsenal, striking U.S. facilities across the region. So, can the U.S. just plop a couple bases in Jordan or Israel's Negev Desert and call it a day?
Not exactly. The U.S. relies on the Patriot systems to shoot down Iranian drones, but there's a scale problem. Iran can pump out thousands of drones in the time it takes the U.S. to make a dozen or so Patriots. That means that without creating a new interceptor, the U.S. is only buying itself a little time by moving its bases further away; eventually, even these new bases will fall within Iran's range.
Looking for something else?
The links below will take you to the Zeihan on Geopolitics YouTube page, each of our social media channels, info on how to purchase Peter Zeihan's books, our website, and more. Click the box to navigate to your desired page.
If there is still something else that you need, the helpful links tab below will direct you to anything you might need. This includes the Patreon support page, how to submit a question for Peter, and more.
Comments (34)
Move out, not relocate from the ME. We're so done roasting ourselves there.
I’m keeping my eyes peeled for startups that specialize (or are trying to) in weaponry designed specifically to kill drones. Ukrainians recently started with killer drones. What a $$ cow that company would be!
Leave the middle east permanently. The US should not have been there in the first place. As for oil itself it is of less and less significance. Still important for petrochemicals but less so over time. The world is moving on but the US is looking and moving backwards.
So does the petrodollar die as a result
Hey Peter… you are absolutely welcome in Canada. Hope you enjoyed your time here!
2027 the US has multiple thousands of drones being delivered to the dod from over 50 different American drone companies to replace patriot system use for drones, attack drones, swarm drones, water/land/air drone combo’s, mini sub drones, etc etc. we’ve been working on the research of what Ukraine has been doing we implemented and just got military contracts later than desired to enter the war since trump is an asshat who prematurely entered this war likely similar to how he prematurely exits his wife in bed. Imo though this war is not over, we will sandbag through midterms, then ramp up again end of Q4 to beginning of Q127
Not if the dems control congress
It's ok, we're starting a trade war w/Canada to distract us from this one...
1. Patriot missiles do not and cannot not shoot down drones. They counter ICBM's...... So why are you putting this out as factual?. 2. Every time that we disengage from the Middle East, a malign actor, (state, state sponsored, terrorist) fills the void and makes life miserable for everybody but Iran. 3. Abandoning our bases everywhere in the Middle East because of IRGC drone threat except Jordon and Israel exposes our other allies in the region to the whims of the IRGC. A really bad idea as the IRGC drone threat still remains without any meaningful countermeasures for our allies. This puts Iran in control of the region. Another bad idea.
As someone who lives in Calgary. Banff is right in our backyard playground. It looks like based on the sunset you were seeing some of the wildfire smoke we are getting this year. Magnificent hiking trails— where are you hiking this summer in Banff??
Those are "Peter Presents" clothes that he uses for his paid talks, so he is on a business trip to Canada, not a hike. Does love getting the landscape into his Youtube videos tho!
Ultimately you don't win fights by being the best at blocking punches. You win fights by knocking the other guy out. If you are not up to doing that you should not have gotten into the fight.
A mass drone problem can only be solved with mass interceptor drones or cheap direct energy (lasers) or kinetic (rail gun) weapons or large caliber bullets works too.
And I thought Carter was the worst president since the 1900s.
Bridges. Tunnels. Done.
US out of the ME.
Part of me is being more convinced by the day that the United States Admiralty is basically sabotaging Pete Hegseth and Trump because they do not want to keep losing US assets in the Middle East. We really don’t have anything to gain by being there at this point, and had we not stupidly got into this war without positioning our forces for it, maybe we could’ve stayed but it just seems like the deep state guys at the Pentagon want this to be over so they can go to the Pacific. To be clear, I believe sabotaging Trump and Pete Hegseth to be the proper patriotic thing to do… The two are wife cheaters and beaters. Not to mention US reputation does not need to suffer for these two child killers who will not be here in 2.5 more years
Dude, you’re usually more circumspect. But I respect the frustrated passion towards the bumbling shortsighted lackeys in DC.
LoL, we have yet to get huge numbers of our own anti drone rockets in the quantity that would begin to ensure safety of static bases in the middle east. In short, we should just sail away and let it be.
you’re too politically bias, which is why i rather listen to then macbeth on politics and conflicts, you’re much better at demographics and supply economics tho
One doesn't have to be politically biased to say "... the King has no clothes"! The truth is still the truth. Politics underlies all demographics and economies. We’ve had a great post-WWII run where western politics and economics have generally aligned to set up a multi-beneficial world order. Up until now! If you don’t like the truth, and you don’t like to be reminded of the political dynamics that got us here, then what are you doing here?
World military strategy is moving forward at a blazingly fast speed, except in the USA where a complete idiot named Hegseth is refusing to see the future of war as it does not integrate with his 19th century world view of warfare. He wants every soldier to be John Wayne when the reality is anyone, male or female OR trans, with a set of eyes and the ability to fly an FPV drone. This is what happens when the idiot in charge prioritizes loyalty over competence - a Mongolian clusterfuck of our military. Sad...
Iran now needs Russia to hang on in their stupid war against Ukraine. Because if Ukraines tech and experience is applied to Iran (I mean as a supplier not as direct belligerent) without Russia drawing away it's resources, they are likely nda stuffed. Ukraine would jump at the chance to sell their experience to anyone in the ME.
Qatar, UAE, and Oman already use Ukrainian anti drone drones. I haven't heard of Bahrain, Kuwait or Iraq having them though.
The real problem the United States faces is that our political leadership has been sleep walking through this war, and Iran hasn't. They have a thirst for victory, while neither side of the aisle seems to be taking this war seriously within the American political system. As a result, the IRGC has been defeating Trump in exactly the same way that Scipio Africanus defeated Hannibal Barca during the Second Punic War. The Roman military philosophy was, “Attack him where he is not.” Just as Rome attacked Carthaginian allies on the Italian peninsula, Iran attacks American allies in the Gulf. Unfortunately, this administration has been treating this war as a fight that America can afford to lose. That is utter folly.
The only way you can call Trump's War "sleep walking" is if you acknowledge that his perception of reality is closer to dreaming than waking. Trump and his lackey sycophants didn't have the foggiest idea of what they were doing, believing their own lies over truth. Hubris, thy name is Trump.
The problem appears to be industrial, not technological. I had been under the impression that the United States Armed Forces already had operational high power lasers that could shoot down drones. The question is not whether the technology is available, but whether the United States has the industrial capacity to crank out these high power lasers at scale. These lasers would probably be electricity hogs, but that wouldn't be a problem on a nuclear-powered ship or a major land facility. Fundamentally, this about a will to fight, and a will to win.
Precisely that. And as recent news shows , nobody wanted and doesn’t want this war. Nobody wants to fight. Everybody understands that this is Israelis war, and as they are incapable of fighting it, they are pushing us as well into it. No. Simply no.
Wherever The U.S. chooses to relocate their bases ..."out of range of Iranian Drones" ... such Will-Not 🐝 the case a year phrum now. That technology is already out there, they will get it and U.S. Forces know this. If The U.S. Forces relocate as protection measure, that "protection" has a Very-Short life-span.
The main goal of the Iranians. Americans out.
Can cheap and capable interceptors play a role here?
You mean like the kind that Ukraine uses to shoot down Shaheds? The answer is yes, but the USA doesn't want them because Trump loves Putin and hates Zelensky. All the independent gulf states are making deals with Ukraine to manufacture these kinds of interceptors.
This must be an old video because we don't use patriots against drones, we use 70 mm Laser‑Guided Anti‑Drone Rockets. The drone issue has been resolved with plentiful and cheap anti drone weapons.
Yup, not current. Old doom and gloom.