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Strategic Straits - Waterways - transcript (1).pdf 31.0 KB
August 19, 2026

The Collapse of the World's Strategic Straits, Part 2 || Aug 19, 2026

Should Iran manage to turn the Strait of Hormuz into a toll-based waterway, what does the domino effect look like?

There are a handful of straits and chokepoints that will follow suit, including the Bab al-Mandab, Turkish Straits, and Danish Straits (the Strait of Malacca will likely remain open). Each of these has regional players with strong incentives to adopt their own version of the Iranian model. Just another line item pushing us toward a more regionalized world.

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Comments (44)

h
helen shardray · August 27, 2026

So what are you doing to prepare for the coming shortages?

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Laurence Winn · August 26, 2026

It seems to me that everyone knows who the United States and Israel are fighting except the US Government and its mainline news media. It’s not Iran, it’s a pernicious and persistent parasite on Iran, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

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Super-Ninja · August 26, 2026

Have you considered that the US is actually serious when it says that it is considering making the straight of hormuz US territory? Imagine a Brettonwoods moment where the US claims every straight in the world. And yes, charges a small toll. Policing the world's waterways would be paid for. And the other countries, at least those on team America, get a preferential price on transit and access to global shipping. It might sound like a big change...but is a functional fix.

M
Mendelsohn · August 21, 2026

It seems apparent that Russia has a huge incentive to persuade Iran not to impose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz in order to safeguard Russia's free access to Danish Straits and the Dardenelles. We'll soon find out if Putin blows that opportunity, too.

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Au Naturel · August 20, 2026

Tell me about the Bearing Strait...

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Gil Bernal · August 20, 2026

The collapse of globalization... now where have I read about that?

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Enigmis Von Neo Pagan Roop M · August 19, 2026

So the Straight of Malacca in turmoil whilst 🤔 all the Straights are rolled....Hmmmm!! Stopping the Malacca trade would be juicy!! If I was looking to end Pax-Americana this could kill it!

A
Art · August 19, 2026

Surprised that Peter failed to mention the ones most strategic to the US - Straits of FL and the Yucatan.

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Rick Moen 🇺🇸🇳🇴🇬🇧 · August 19, 2026

My short list of other straits and international waterways that are likely hot spots got "hidden", which is bizarre -- and a disservice to paying Patreon supporters: Mine that have been "hidden" have all been short, inoffensive, and on-topic. About a week ago, Peter responded to my first asking why, by saying "There is an auto-moderation feature that hides comments flagged by the Patreon system." Great, but by what criteria? Patreon has easily found "Community Guidelines" pages describing what's forbidden. I'd already carefully read those, and recommend others do so, too. But, Peter & staff, seriously: The auto-moderation is failing to follow those.

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Ramsey · August 19, 2026

When you are talking about Somlia? Are you referring to Somaliland?

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TDY Ranger · August 19, 2026

So on a scale of 1-10 how much worse has the Clowmander and Chief made the entire world?

A
Aldo · August 19, 2026

The Strait of Magellan?

0
0th dimension · August 19, 2026

Shipping security services. The golden age of High Seas adventure has begun. Join now, land-lubber. See the world.

M
Marco B. · August 19, 2026

Good idea! you can sign up first, bubba-lubber!

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VonGohl · August 19, 2026

the key takeaways from the EIA data released on Wednesday: 1. US crude inventories rose 4.4 million barrels, bringing levels to the highest since late May. That comes as strategic reserves fell by about 5 million barrels, suggesting those barrels were seeping into commercial inventories. 2. Still, the market mostly read this report as bullish. That’s partly because refinery runs rose again last week, up to their highest since September 2019. Unsurprisingly, that was led by the Gulf Coast, where runs were the highest since August 2018. 3. Another tailwind: Distillate inventories fell once again last week, down 1.5 million barrels to the lowest since early July. The bulk of the decrease occurred on the East Coast, but supplies also fell in the Midwest and on the Gulf Coast. Nationally, distillate supplies remain at their lowest seasonal levels since 1996 as winter heating season continues to draw closer.

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AlJASillySTEMGuy · August 19, 2026

Why am I getting hidden comments on my posts? Is someone being mean to me, and is the webmaster trying to protect my feelings? Or is the commenter a coward? I protest! I should be able to give a retort.

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Ramsey · August 19, 2026

Peter, when you are talking about Somlia? Are you referring to Somaliland?

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JTS · August 19, 2026

The question seems to be, what can the civilized world powers do to prevent this from occurring. It seems Peter has been correct, that the US providing unimpeded navigation to the world has been the catalyst to the economic growth worldwide, and that removing that safety mechanism will adversely affect most of the world's nations. To me it seems the obvious first step would be to keep Iran from being able to impose those fees, which would mean actually doing something about the IRGC control. I believe it would also require the US to treat our allies as that, allies, and work with them instead of antagonizing them at every chance. I'm not sure if the US has the leadership to be able to do that any longer. The same for most of the world powers. If we don't, it's plausible that the chaos that follows will negatively impact nearly all nations of any economic consequence, including us.

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Roshan Chandrasena · August 19, 2026

Canada as the Arctic melts as well

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Jim · August 19, 2026

And then port fees will increase in all other countries to cover the cost of strait fees to their shipping

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Viable2568 · August 19, 2026

Sal (What's Goin On With Shipping) def beat Peter to the punch with his video released a few days ago, with quite a bit more detail.

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Tim Robertson · August 19, 2026

What about the South China Sea? If China controls it with its new island bases, would they also want to exploit it for political purposes? Then there is the Tawan Straits. . .

K
Kowalski from Nebraska · August 19, 2026

It really feels like Trump and Pete Hegseth should have thought about all of this before starting a war without the proper military buildup and positioning and allies being brought in… I’m glad I don’t have the moral responsibility for having voted for this, imagine, having to live with the fact you voted for the destruction of the American lead global order

M
Marco B. · August 19, 2026

And you're just realizing this, NOW????? The day ole' Drunken Guts was approved was when EVERYONE knew that dad quit his job and left for Tahiti with his mistress and the kids' college money!! Seriously, Nebraska?? Need to husk some of that corn so you can see into the wider world, I suppose.

H
Harley Barber · August 19, 2026

So, djt wants his name on stuff, so now we have trump tolls.

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Christopher · August 19, 2026

I suspect we won't see any fix for this, as we're in the middle of a total societal collapse...

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John Wells · August 19, 2026

Straits of Florida!

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Digital Window · August 19, 2026

Great topic 👍 didn't Indonesia already threaten a toll on Malacca? Corruption doesn't always come with wise foresight I suppose...

C
CWO4 Retired · August 19, 2026

Arguably, that scenario suggests a revisit of electric vehicles for the U.S. market. However, this time the U.S. needs to build the freaking infrastructure, i.e., reliable and universal charging stations, across the U.S.

A
AlJASillySTEMGuy · August 19, 2026

Yup, but I believe we'll need more than that. How long does it take to charge an EV? It only takes five minutes to fill a tank with gasoline; that is, if you're not Russian.

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Scott Nance · August 19, 2026

Don't forget Eritrea. They're so responsible ...

F
Freebeard · August 19, 2026

So we're going to get resource wars not because of dwindling supplies, but because we can't get along well enough to allow things to get to where they need to go.

r
ro · August 19, 2026

What about the straights of Gibraltar?

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Jürgen Sander · August 19, 2026

What if the migration issue in Ceuta is not about migration , but on the long term access of Marocco to Gibraltar access?

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Alfa Eco · August 19, 2026

It is going to be a mee too 😅

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C C Black · August 19, 2026

Thank you, Donnie.

M
Michael Peduzzi · August 19, 2026

The shores of Tripoli ... ?

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TnS · August 19, 2026

For Bab al-Mandab, even a stranger add to the mix: Somalia's EEZ is maintained by the Turkish navy, they also have a huge military base there. So can this region also be another geopolitical contest between France and Turkey?

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AlJASillySTEMGuy · August 19, 2026

In the bad old days, this would not have been tolerated; coordinated force would have been used to nip this in the bud, and it would not have gotten this far. But sadly, we no longer have coherent leadership in the free world. The police have been defunded and downsized. Can this be turned around yet? Will all the damage being done be mitigated after November of 2028?

P
Peter · August 19, 2026

And how about the Bering Strait. That could get tricky very quickly 😬.

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Freebeard · August 19, 2026

There's very little traffic through the Bering Straight.

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ColKlink · August 19, 2026

And so it begins.

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OldOso · August 19, 2026

What about Gibraltar? The English Channel?

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Richard Fox · August 19, 2026

Quite.