The Collapse of the World's Strategic Straits, Part 1 || Aug 17, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz needs a new model for running things, but copy/pasting the voluntary system used in the Strait of Malacca isn't going to work.
Iran isn't just concerned about security; it wants international recognition of its right to control access to Hormuz and collect the associated access fees and tolls. With a clear ability and willingness to disrupt traffic through Hormuz, Iran has forced everyone to take these demands seriously.
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Comments (22)
I will pause video so he can catch his breath.
What % of Americans KNOW that Canada DECLINED the recent trade negotiations AND will be starting their own tariffs Sept 8. Among various american demands was the concept that Canada could NOT begin/continue to make their own trade negotions with other countries. Would Canada still have sovereignity? obviously NO to such demand.
It seems as if the international community has so much to lose in capitulating with Iran that there could be significant pressure from all who Iran would like to do business with, pushing back on (diplomatically, trade, kinetic?) Iran. Even the hard liners might pause at being told no by everybody. Seems like an opportunity for some skilled diplomacy, oh uh maybe without the US?
Time to also make the NATO lake a paid waterway for russians.
Such a ray of sunshine. This is so crazy, I thought W. Bush ruined us as a country then this guy comes soon and says “Hold my Golden Lager”. The damage he has done to our country and the world is unbelievable and in real terms unprecedented. And most of it do with his idiot mouth and a pen… it makes my brain and heart hurt. I’ve been able to somehow make Iran into an energy is superpower and probably the power in the Middle East for the rest of the century. And that’s just one of 100 things that has been fucked up to the enth degree.
And still, he has American supporters…
I think you touched on all of this in one of your books where the US stepped back from maritime enforcement.. And hola free for all. The end is just the beginning I think. So you were prescient about a lot of this ( but didnt predict it would be self inflicted via a war of choice 😉)
I'm sure the question that is uppermost in Trump's mind is "Now that I've started this unnecessary war and I can't 'win' it, how can I maximize my own personal profits from it?"
Two things. First, this is the collapse of the global systems that was always going to happen. Second, when subscriptions to your service drop, it could be a leading economic indicator. Great job to you and your team on some cool analysis. Thank you!
From this day forward I declare it is now called The Trump War. He likes branding things so let him have it.
Honestly, I'm totally amazed Trump didn't label this as "a special military operation." What a missed opportunity.
Which is why we can not give in to any of Iran's demands, none. This adventure was ill-conceived by a president with a toddler's mentality. But now that we've dived into the dilemma, we must deal with it like adults.
Ummm. Yeah.
Sounds like the US is taking back the Panama Canal
Tolling is a tactical execution of state of affairs. Will it stay indefinitely? Nobody knows. But I think what is clear that is just a piece of much larger strategic goal Iran now has - seat at the big boys table. Power is what Iran is up to. The real, power.
If Iran is going to tax Hormuz with toll we Danes should do the same for all the ships passing through our main straits called Storebælt. There is a second one called Øresund. It would hit the Russians hard. I am sure we could negotiate free passage for ships from the rest of Scandinavia. Germany, Poland and the Baltic countries should have a huge discount. All other ships would have to pay. Imagine this happing all over the world. Such a development would make everything much more expensive.
Carsten- are Russian ships able to pass through Danish Straits presently? Those Water-Ways you mentioned, they remain open and available to all ships? My understanding was through sanctions, Nato waters have been restricted to some/many (Rus shadow fleet in particular) vessels.
My question would be what about other straits, now that the freedom of seas is open to debate? What’s stopping countries like Egypt seeing the change in global affairs and more than double their fee for Suez? Or what about Turkish Straits which is the only water passage to Black Sea and has been free for trade vessels under Montreux Convention, what would stop Turks from saying it’s not free anymore? Can Spain do something similar Gibraltar?
Gibralter ... that would be a good one.
Hmmmm ...???... 🤔 Nothing appears 2🐝 go🪽 ... 😬 according to plan ... 🥺 with this administration. Is that wudjuhsayn ...???... 😟 Peter? ... 😕 Aaaw Maaan and ... ohDarn ... HooCuduh Known this ... earlier ...???...🤦 🫠 Thanks Peter, 🐈
There was a plan ?
Hm... Kinda thought collapsing strategic waterways would be about how Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb, and to a lesser extent the Dardanelles and Panama are all... operating well below historical capacity. Maybe that'll be in part 2 🤔