The Shadow Fleet Is Sinking || Aug 12, 2026
The first of Russia and Iran's aging shadow fleet is sinking. The tanker is carrying ~1 million barrels of crude bound for India, but that oil is already leaking into the water off the Omani coast.
Beyond the environmental disaster, the next question is that of insurance. Since the shadow fleet is "covered" by Russia's state-backed insurance system, whether they pay out or not will determine just how much longer the decrepit shadow fleet can operate.
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Comments (31)
You would almost think that any country with the military capabilities who wants some "free" oil would start seizing as many shadow tankers as they could... in the name of environmental protection, of course.
Zeihan
Didn’t a couple of shadow fleet tankers sink in a storm in the Sea of Azov a couple of years ago?
Yep. Broke right in half.
Weird comment system behavior... recent comments seem to be vanishing. To recap: This vessel is not sinking (just) because it's old and decrepit. The ship suffered an explosion on June 8, and the crew abandoned ship 4 days later. While that occurred near Houthi territory and could have been their mistake, it's far more likely it was a Ukrainian "enhanced sanctions" operation. The vessel was adrift until it eventually ran aground on the Omani island, whereupon it was holed and started leaking/sinking. It was Cameroon flagged, with a fly-by-night registered owner in Shanghai that isn't answering the phone. No insurance, no company to go after, crew might be in the wind. Nobody to pay salvage companies, and it's even unclear whether salvors would be subject to sanctions for assisting a dark fleet vessel. Maritime Executive has more details: https://maritime-executive.com/article/wrecked-tanker-continues-uncontrolled-oil-discharge-off-oman .
This is why countries are now openly seizing shadowfleets, they are a floating ecological liability disaster and if it sinks/spilled oil in someone's port/coast no official country will take financial responsibility for it but whoever's coast unlucky enough the shadowfleet sank on. This is why Russia/Iran continues using them despite the massive risk (it externalizes the cost). The Caroline Bezengi leaking/sinking off the coast of Oman is a massive ecological disaster as it's leaking oil off an area that is also a whale reserve.
the key takeaways from the EIA data released on Wednesday: 1. US crude stocks jumped by about 17 million barrels, the biggest weekly move in inventories since January 2023. The build was mostly driven by a swelling on the Gulf Coast, where inventories jumped almost 15 million barrels as softening export demand and a surge in imports kept more material home. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose for the second straight week. 2. US crude imports jumped by over a million barrels a day to the highest level since November 2024, in part driven by a return of Saudi Arabian oil. Venezuela crude imports soared to the highest in nine years amid high US refinery runs and diminished appetite from Asia. Shipments from Canada rose to the highest level since March of 2025. 3. Diesel exports notched a new all time high of nearly 2 million barrels a day. Refiners continue to make near-record amounts of the fuel on a seasonal basis and demand remains at the lower end of seasonal norms.
That's an ancient Chinese curse: "I pray that you live in exciting times"....
WTF is so exciting about ANOTHER ecological disaster? The size of the Exxon Valdez, no less!!
Nothing beats a good disaster.
Any desalination plants near this catastrophe?
👍
They will pay the claim in Rubles after a multiple year “investigation”…….. Good luck converting…
How oh how will the ruzzian ships that have to leave Syria get back home ?
Hi Peter, love your work! Do you think there's anything more than coincidence that this is happening near the Strait of Hormuz?
lol what if it’s a fan and a green screen
That's a good one!!!!LOL!!
Wasn't Europe supposed to run out of jet fuel by now (August)? Why hasn't that happened yet?
Because the sky hasn't fallen yet.
Another concerning question: Does Oman even have the capability or political will to deal with this kind of ecological disaster?
Their willingness to get involved in duplicity and shady deals with Iran suggests the answer is: no. Expect more bad news from there.
The blue water world is in for a rude awakening as the US Navy withdraws from it's mission to protet commercial AND military maritime traffic, everywhere, for all. In many respects the US Navy IS the operative insurance policy against theft, piracy and attack. Not so much, anymore.
Great point.
I bet you they will just dock in ports without insurance. Countries will not shut down the power grids to comply with insurance requirements.
True. But will Russia pay up ?
I'm so assured our fearless leader is a supporter of Russia, what's to worry about?
Do you have any evidence to support your claim that Trump (as you imply) is a "supporter" of Russia, in anything more than occasional courteous rhetoric toward Putin as a person?
How many ships are estimated to be in the shadow fleet total?
I've read in the past it's in the 800-1000 range. In other words, more than desirable.
More good news.
Sarcasm I hope. If you think eliminating 5 million more barrels from the oil sector right now is good for the global economic catastrophe we're headed toward...