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Energy Stress 3.5 - transcript.pdf 27.2 KB
August 7, 2026

Global Energy Stressors: Can Anybody Help? || Aug 7, 2026

Are there any countries that might be able to ease the global energy stress?

Saudi Arabia might be able to ramp up output, but Houthi attacks could take that away in an instant. Producers like Guyana, Brazil, Venezuela, and Canada can only add small, incremental volumes, but most major expansion projects are years away.

So, where does that leave us? The global oil deficit is only going to worsen over the next few months. And with oil market data becoming increasingly unreliable, things are likely already worse than we think...

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Comments (35)

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Ribbon 🇦🇺 · August 15, 2026

Please use my monthly subscription to buy a mic.

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Jeff · August 14, 2026

Peter, why is your audio so garbled and unintelligible at times?

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Gary · August 14, 2026

GREAT

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Rachel C. · August 14, 2026

Many would slap me upside the head for suggesting this, but how about a climate friendly measure that would CONSERVE (what a concept) the resources available. A revenue neutral carbon fee, where the average citizen wouldn’t be losers of their hard earned money, but the energy gluttonous rich and powerful would pay their fair share. All as meant as a deterrent to waste and a carrot to transition to cleaner energy sources. Geez, what a concept. Citizens Climate Lobby has been touting the idea for some time. It’s pretty reasonable, but ask our government to consider anything reasonable is, well, not in the stars at the moment. Here’s hoping humanity comes to its senses as our lack oil security is begging for and inviting creative solutions.

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Christopher Rieth · August 14, 2026

Do you know about China cutting its imports. It sounded unbelievable but the article said they could have been hoarding billions of gallons pre-war.

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Mendelsohn · August 18, 2026

I recently read online that China likely has a strategic oil reserve of in excess of 1 billion barrels. The US' Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) recently fell below 300 million barrels, the lowest in over 40 years. Combined with coal (and even wood) burning power plants, solar and wind generation, China is more resilient to the Middle East supply shock than most countries. Still, the country will also hit a wall if exports don't restart in the coming months. I trust Zeihan will be able to discuss this in great detail soon.

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Jared Hight · August 11, 2026

Someone buy the man a microphone

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Hug0 · August 11, 2026

Good points, thanks @Phil

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Michael Hill · August 10, 2026

O

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JohnChecki · August 9, 2026

End of the World Again? Keep walking

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Frank Garcia · August 9, 2026

All the analysis I have been seeing says that we should hit operational limits for oil (potentially resulting in price spikes) this month - where does that stand?

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Michael Engle · August 9, 2026

Question for a’future video. When and what will be the effect on US and world oil prices when the various strategic reserves are “emptied?” (I know there is base to the reserves and it is not zero.)

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Bibity bop · August 8, 2026

It seems to me like a battery technology leap is the lurking dark horse that could enable a great many places in the world to electrify.

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Ted Magida · August 8, 2026

How do I cancel a double subscription This has been going on for almost 2 years

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Ben Pressly · August 11, 2026

Maybe try cancelling everything and restarting your subscription?

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Lee Jacobs · August 8, 2026

Biden killed the keystone pipeline into the USA that would have sent Canadian crude to US refineries. It would take a decade to undo this providing Canada cooperates. Ironically, the same voices that opposed the keystone pipeline are now complaining about the lack of oil. Same-same for rare earth mineral mining.

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Martin D Turner · August 7, 2026

And to add some cheer here: The population of the planet in 1929 (during the Great Depression) was just two billion (2 billion). The population of the Earth in 2008 (GFC1) was just under seven billion (7 BN). The population of the planet now is just over eight billion ( 8 BN). Depression 2.0 or GFC2 will make the first ones seem like a PICNIC!

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AR · August 7, 2026

Peter - I have read (hard copies and Kendal versions) & listened to all your books (Audible version) - have been a great fan since "Accidental SP". Now that it seems like what you had predicted about the collapse has started - TIME TO PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DO AN UPDATE - instead of 10 years out on one book - do an X years out on your forecast. I have hard copies, Kendal versions and Audible versions of all your books.

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Marco B. · August 7, 2026

I agree with your assessment completely. I own several major oils, Canadian o & G's, Petrobras, Australian o & G's.......and NONE of them are performing anything near what the supposed "headlines" (world affairs/geopolitics) says! That's how fucking MANIPULATED these markets are! Pretty soon I'm gonna sell it all (I'm 74 and have been investing for the last 45 years)....and just go beachcomb somewhere and drown my liver and kidneys in cheap Caribbean booze!

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El Goofo · August 7, 2026

I'd comment but the wind here is too strong to type.

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Rick Moen 🇺🇸🇳🇴🇬🇧 · August 7, 2026

MNNO (Michael) or other Zeihan on Geopolitics staff: Can you please explain the flurry of "Comment hidden" actions? I am reasonably sure one of mine, a comment about UAE's challenges and motives for a sea-level canal bypassing Hormuz, was among comments thus hidden. I replaced it with a pithier one, which went untouched; ergo my guess of a sudden, undocumented comment-length limit. But it would be nice to know more than my guess.

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Zeihan on Geopolitics · August 10, 2026

There is an auto-moderation feature that hides comments flagged by the Patreon system.

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T_Austin · August 7, 2026

There have been a lot of comments on supply. Can Peter comment on demand? Specifically China. There have been Wall Street Estimates that China reduced its imports of crude by 5 bpd in the month of June! That is significant. So the if true- the question is: How much of the reduction is switching to EV (semi permanent), drawing of stock piles, or just doing consuming less. I think this demand piece is what was largely missed by analysts in the Spring and why oil is not at the demand destruction level of $150-$200. Of course what matters is how long can this demand reduction last - stockpile and tightening of belts only lasts so long.

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Cyrus Simmons · August 7, 2026

The wind situation is getting out of hand.

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khenyth · August 7, 2026

The curtailment of oil and gas supplies may speed up development of renewables, which is absolutely essential if we don't want to become extinct. Or don't you believe in global warming/climate change yet?

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Mike · August 7, 2026

Any thoughts on who shipped those Moroccan migrants to Ceuta?

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Frostback · August 7, 2026

No mystery. Trump & Netanyahu have been furious with the Spanish government due to its stance on genocide. The King of Morocco has been an "ally" of Israel, and both Israel and the USA are backing Morocco's claims to the disputed region of Western Sahara. The King has just named a new superhighway flanking the disputed territory after Donald J Trump. Morocco also has direct territorial claims on Ceuta. The invasion of "migrants" was a planned spectacle , staged, and filmed to embarrass Spain and for use against Democrats in the upcoming midterms and for the benefit of the ultra-right in European elections. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/06/trump-influence-morocco-spotlight-ceuta-border-disaster

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Allen M · August 7, 2026

Why can't we predict this crisis, because so many state actors and traders have a vested interest in having true price discovery. So, buckle up, and get ready. Meanwhile, keep on doing whatever. Traders expect opportunities, and sometimes, the steam roller gets them grabbing nickels. In short, unless you are Xi, MBS, or Putie, your data is meh.

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AlJASillySTEMGuy · August 7, 2026

Is the Saudi military capable of dealing with the Houthis with boots on the ground, or are the Houthis a military danger to the Saudis? Things have been popping these last few days.

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RL · August 7, 2026

Neither are a significant threat to the other. Not saying the Houthis can’t sink commercial vessels. Just saying I don’t see how they are a significant threat to the Saudi homeland. Look what happened when they were in open war for years… next to nothing.

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AKDMD · August 7, 2026

Explain why your prediction on the timing of the crisis was so off

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Hug0 · August 7, 2026

What about Norway?

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Lee Lambert · August 7, 2026

Agree. Isn’t there more oil around Norway that is not being produced?

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FrostTHammer · August 7, 2026

Suggestion for another part; What are the next set of vulnerabilities? At least from a European perspective, Azerbaijan is awkwardly located between Russia and Iran, and you also mentioned Angola output dropping.

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AloGuvnah · August 7, 2026

Did you watch Kazakhstan’s leader embarrass Putin on their live national tv, basically telling him that this was a mistake to go to war and that they would not be supporting them? Oof. Big balls. But probably stayed away from windows.