Breaking Up with the Middle East Is Hard To Do || July 30, 2026
The Obama and Trump administrations have both made deals with Iran. There are some glaring differences between the two, so let's see which deal came out on top.
Obama's Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) failed to address Iran's missile program or its support for regional proxy groups, but limited Iran's access to frozen assets, maintained broader sanctions, required inspections of nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and sought to create a regional balance of power. Trump's deal is substantially weaker, as it allows Iran to sell oil freely and access the U.S. financial system with limited oversight, lacks long-term safeguards on Iran's nuclear program, and leaves Iran without a proper framework to engage with the region.
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Comments (42)
How do you respond to the president’s position that action had to be taken now before Iran had built enough weaponry to effectively protect their (assumed future) nuclear bombs? Thanks
Peter and some of the comments here are laughable. Comments such as "It succeeded in freezing Iranian nuclear development' or "primary objective was to assure Iran didn't have a nuclear bomb, the JCPOA was a success". I'm pretty sure those who say that know Iran never stopped any enrichment or the development of thier nuclear weapons but it parrots the political narritive they are trying to convince others of.
Permitting Iran to use the US Swift payment system is conditional on Iran honoring the deal. This is highly beneficial to the US financial standing in the world.
Yeah Obama had more control. our. Trumpster can't make a deal if his life depended on it. But he's such a narcissist that he'll say he better it made a better deal. Just like he says their war is over all the freaking time. And he said that Iran is losing the war. Actually Iran is winning the war.
Trumpsters primary negotiators are real estate moguls and private equity guys.....waaay out of their lane.
Reminds me of a Yellowstone episode where Kevin Costner tells to one cocky guy "You think you're winning this game? you don't even know the rules. But don't worry, I'll teach them to you". Iran is playing with Trump like a cat with a mouse. This is both so glorious and pathetic to see.
The Strait of Hormuz used to be open. Now it's not. That is on the marking guide, whatever the final grade.
1 Omani Rial equals 2,25 Euro
This feels like a rare miss. Your broader concern about surrendering leverage before resolving missiles, proxies, and the nuclear issue is worth discussing, but several factual distinctions matter. The cash settlement physically delivered to Iran was approximately $1.7 billion, not $20–30 billion. That settlement, the broader JCPOA sanctions relief, and today’s interim MOU are separate things and shouldn’t be blended together. Likewise, “full access to the U.S. financial system” and “everything Iran has wanted since 1979” go beyond what the publicly available details establish. The sequencing concern may be legitimate, but overstating the facts weakens the analysis.
With respect, how can you acknowledge that the JCPOA was intended to be a fist step in a multi-step series of deals, and it was probably the best deal that could have been achieved at the time… and then call it grade-D statecraft? I’m a fan of your work, Peter, but I have always had a hard time getting my head around the way you characterize Obama’s presidency and general temperament. He made plenty of decisions I disagreed with, but I think the JCPOA’s very existence is evidence that he was not entirely disinterested in statecraft, as you’ve often stated - sometimes I wonder if you made the decision to flame Obama just to throw some red meat to right-leaning clients and readers who might write you off as left-leaning otherwise (or maybe just to buy yourself some room to criticize the right in the vein of both-sidesism).
JCPOA and Trump Iran deal is basically "dumb and dumbest" in geopolitical form. 🤪🤪🤪
Can you explain why Iran would break the MOU and prolong the fight?
This continues to make me feel absolutely wonderful that I can say that I have been able to live through the worst two (2) presidents in American history. Golly! What a privilege...
If you used a number system, the JCPOA would get a 5, but we’ll never know how it would have turned out after Trump unilaterally canceled it. The Trump deal would be negative, for a lot of reasons, but bottom line, it has so far offered no benefits to anyone except Iran.
The JCPOA was never "cancelled". The US left the agreement in 2018 after three years, as the JCPOA allowed. The European three, Britain, France, and Germany, and Iran continued with the agreement. However in July 2019, Iran began to prevent inspectors from retrieving memory cards from electronic surveilance equipment, and by June 2022, it removed all such equipment entirely from its nuclear sites. In January 2021, Iran broke the agreement further by restarting enrichment to 20% (3.67% was the cap), and again in April 2021, by enriching to 60%. Inspectors subsequently verified that Iran had increased their 20%-enriched uranium stockpile and had newly produced 60% enriched uranium. For these reasons, and many others, the European Three instituted the "snap-back" provisions of the JCPOA in September 2025 after a protracted negotiation, reinstating all sanctions against Iran from prior to the agreement. Therefore, it is false to say that "Iran followed all the rules." It observed the rules only from October 2015 (the start of the agreement) through June 2019, less than four years of the ten-year agreement. Furthermore, if the agreement was a success, Iran would not have had at least 400 Kg of 60% enriched uranium in May 2025 (as per the IAEA inspectors report). According to an analysis by the Institute for Science and International Security from June 2025, Iran could produce up to 22 bombs worth of weapons grade uranium within five months using it vast complex of centrifuges. Other experts have speculated that Iran could build a bomb within a year of enriching to weapons grade. That is why Trump bombed Iran's centrifuges in June 2025 to prevent Iran from producing weapons-grade uranium. Subsequently, satellites show that Iran has given up on the bombed sites (Fordow and Natanz), and is trying to rebuild its centrifuges at the Pickaxe Mountain site, an effort that has sent them back at least two years, according to the Trump Administration.
Before the JCPOA agreement was canceled, Iran followed all the rules set by nuclear monitors. Because of this, the deal worked well, stopping the Iranians from making a weapon. Watchdog groups confirmed Iran kept its promises thus making its main goal a success! JCPOA successfully kept a nuclear weapon out of the Iranians' reach.
The JCPOA was never "cancelled". The US left the agreement in 2018 after three years, as the JCPOA allowed. The European three, Britain, France, and Germany, and Iran continued with the agreement. However in July 2019, Iran began to prevent inspectors from retrieving memory cards from electronic surveilance equipment, and by June 2022, it removed all such equipment entirely from its nuclear sites. In January 2021, Iran broke the agreement further by restarting enrichment to 20% (3.67% was the cap), and again in April 2021, by enriching to 60%. Inspectors subsequently verified that Iran had increased their 20%-enriched uranium stockpile and had newly produced 60% enriched uranium. For these reasons, and many others, the European Three instituted the "snap-back" provisions of the JCPOA in September 2025 after a protracted negotiation, reinstating all sanctions against Iran from prior to the agreement. Therefore, it is false to say that "Iran followed all the rules." It observed the rules only from October 2015 (the start of the agreement) through June 2019, less than four years of the ten-year agreement. Furthermore, if the agreement was a success, Iran would not have had at least 400 Kg of 60% enriched uranium in May 2025 (as per the IAEA inspectors report). According to an analysis by the Institute for Science and International Security from June 2025, Iran could produce up to 22 bombs worth of weapons grade uranium within five months using it vast complex of centrifuges. Other experts have speculated that Iran could build a bomb within a year of enriching to weapons grade. That is why Trump bombed Iran's centrifuges in June 2025 to prevent Iran from producing weapons-grade uranium. Subsequently, satellites show that Iran has given up on the bombed sites (Fordow and Natanz), and is trying to rebuild its centrifuges at the Pickaxe Mountain site, an effort that has sent them back at least two years, according to the Trump Administration.
The JCPOA was essentially the first step of what was going to be a multitier plan. You can tell in how Obama was operating that he 100% believe that Clinton was going to take over after him. Even though she hated Obama for beating her back in 08 and I think she’s just racist in general, she likely would have kept up the financial domination of Iran and start to normalize them. Even though it wasn’t a great plan, it was a plan, and that is still more than anything The Trump administration has ever made.
That is already the conclusion reached in this video. Some analysts I watch have argued that Trump simply viewed himself as a superior negotiator (kinda his thing), who could negotiate a better deal, one that included Irans funding of proxies. What Trump didn't understand, is that IF he failed in getting a new deal, the only option left for the United States when it comes to preventing these things- was military action.
As I have said many times, the ME is a snake pit that has nothing the US needs. Benign neglect is the best policy for the US, especially with respect to Israel. The only real issue is nukes, especially with respect to Iran as they are insane enough to use them.
So, and it is largely based on reading and listening to YOUR work, what strategic interest does the US still have in the region? Honorius sent a Nice Letter to the cities of Britain when the cost of defending them exceeded what Rome was willing (or able) to pay. It is time for the US to do the same.
What did Honorius say about nuclear weapons and missiles?
This analysis was very disappointing. The big accomplishment of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was limiting Iran's enrichment of uranium to 3.67% with international inspection. Dirty bomb enrichment requires 80% enrichment; bomb quality enrichment requires 90%. Before Trump tore up the JCPOA, Iran was (at least according to the IAEA inspectors) in compliance. If the primary objective was to assure Iran didn't have a nuclear bomb, the JCPOA was a success. Also, the cash Iran received under the JCPOA was approximately $1.7 billion, not $10-20 billion, for payments Iran had made to the US before the 1979 revolution. The JCPOA did unfreeze approximately $50 billion of Iran's oil and other related frozen assets, none of that was US taxpayer money.
The JCPOA was never "cancelled". The US left the agreement in 2018 after three years, as the JCPOA allowed. The European three, Britain, France, and Germany, and Iran continued with the agreement. However in July 2019, Iran began to prevent inspectors from retrieving memory cards from electronic surveilance equipment, and by June 2022, it removed all such equipment entirely from its nuclear sites. In January 2021, Iran broke the agreement further by restarting enrichment to 20% (3.67% was the cap), and again in April 2021, by enriching to 60%. Inspectors subsequently verified that Iran had increased their 20%-enriched uranium stockpile and had newly produced 60% enriched uranium. For these reasons, and many others, the European Three instituted the "snap-back" provisions of the JCPOA in September 2025 after a protracted negotiation, reinstating all sanctions against Iran from prior to the agreement. Therefore, it is false to say that "Iran followed all the rules." It observed the rules only from October 2015 (the start of the agreement) through June 2019, less than four years of the ten-year agreement. Furthermore, if the agreement was a success, Iran would not have had at least 400 Kg of 60% enriched uranium in May 2025 (as per the IAEA inspectors report). According to an analysis by the Institute for Science and International Security from June 2025, Iran could produce up to 22 bombs worth of weapons grade uranium within five months using it vast complex of centrifuges. Other experts have speculated that Iran could build a bomb within a year of enriching to weapons grade. That is why Trump bombed Iran's centrifuges in June 2025 to prevent Iran from producing weapons-grade uranium. Subsequently, satellites show that Iran has given up on the bombed sites (Fordow and Natanz), and is trying to rebuild its centrifuges at the Pickaxe Mountain site, an effort that has sent them back at least two years, according to the Trump Administration.
Yeah, negotiations and deals have two sides. The premise that the U.S. could get everything it wanted in terms of regional proxies, missiles, nuclear development, containment, etc. was always flawed. I'd give the Obama deal more like a C+. It succeeded in freezing Iranian nuclear development in exchange for limited re-engagement. That's something. Just because the U.S. didn't get its whole wish list from an enemy state doesn't make it a bad deal. Trump's unconditional surrender on every term that the Iranians demanded is the sort of "negotiation" that never happens with anybody competent.
So what you'e saying is, you can't negotiate with terrorists?
I know from personal experience that you are ready for a treadmill test no offense intented
Grade F, otherwise known as FUBAR
Remind me, why were the Obama-era cash flights all denominated in forex and not in US dollars? Part of the Obama genius?
With respect….. What second deal are you talking about ? Literally still fighting , nobody thought it was worth the paper it was written on 🤷🏽♂️😂
Wrong
The huffing and puffing is part of your novel package Peter....be true to yourself and your unique perspective
What Peter says here isn't unique. It's a broadly shared consensus in military, diplomatic and intelligence leadership within the current administration. The only difference with Peter is that he can say it out loud without getting fired.
Hey Peter if you are going to talk, walk and record.... please try not to be "huffing and puffing".... it is distracting from the content and unappealing.
I stand in awe of his breath of knowledge on so many topics and his fluid delivery but I do agree that talking while walking is disconcerting and draw's one concentration away from what is being relayed to noisy panting...just sit down for a moment, make the recording, then walk on.
Almost came close to complimenting Obama 😆
Thank you, Peter!
Perfect clarity.
You’re comparing young, immature apples to ripe oranges.
Oh my. Your O. Henry-esque ending puts some pizzazz on the previous 7 minutes and 40 seconds. Well done!
It’s like they always say: “D’s get degrees but F’s gets you living in a van down by the river.”
Because they are in the middle. 😉