Why Bypassing Hormuz Is a Pipe Dream || July 29, 2026
So, you want to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, huh? Good luck finding a replacement route or pipeline that matches the 20 to 22 million barrels of oil that used to transit daily.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have pipelines capable of transporting roughly 1.6 and 7 million barrels per day, respectively. Despite being the best alternatives, they come with long expansion timelines or vulnerability to strikes. There are a few other routes that pass through Syria and Turkey, but those are either too risky or too small.
Looking for something else?
The links below will take you to the Zeihan on Geopolitics YouTube page, each of our social media channels, info on how to purchase Peter Zeihan's books, our website, and more. Click the box to navigate to your desired page.
If there is still something else that you need, the helpful links tab below will direct you to anything you might need. This includes the Patreon support page, how to submit a question for Peter, and more.
Comments (22)
Hello
My comment about engineering and military feasibility of UAE constructing a sea-level bypass canal entirely within UAE territory seems to have vanished? I'm pretty sure no admin decided to "hide" it. Short version: The defense (military) problem is likely to be solved by the Emiratis' funding and allying with Ukraine, the wor'ld's experts at defending against drones and missiles. Lacking locks, it wouldn't have many attackable points other than ships themselves, and wouldn't need fresh water to operate. The engineering problem amounts to a 172 meter, plus a bit more, vertical cut, through the lowest pass in the Hajar Mountains. That's about 3x the Panama Canal's Culebra Cut, except without tropical diseases, adverse geology (landslides), and with the benefit of a century of engineering progress. UAE has the motivation and the money required.
So 20%-25% of the world crude oil supply is routed through Hormuz. That's a lot. But that still leaves 75% to 80% available from other sources. With the US producing a lot of sweet crude, is the real problem they types of crude represented by the 75% to 80%? Would kind of seem as though there is still quite a lot of crude available?
The Sunni Arabs, Alawites and Kurds all mistrust/don't like each other due to their hostile political history. It's complicated.
Why dont you run for president of the US
Maps would be helpful, ones with North up
Ibagree with jerrold, could we have that above again please but with the maps this time as we dont know where even half of these sites are even atm? Thanks. JCN Social Carer.
Sometimes bad options are all the options you have.
Yes, now all we have are bad options. Before February 22, that was not the case.
Why do I see a bunch of responses hidden? "Comment hidden."
Peter how about a few maps?
EIA data released on Wednesday: 1. US commercial crude stockpiles have dipped to their lowest since 2018. Crude inventories fell by more than 7 million barrels, while inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell back to their lowest levels since August 2014 and are once again under 20 million barrels. That’s the threshold traders generally consider to be “tank-bottoms.” While releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are slowing, it’s still at its lowest since the 1980s. All of these are signs of thinning buffers in the oil market as tensions in the Iran war ramp up.
Sounds like Iran has the cards.
Soooo the future looks good for the Persian Gulf, got it!
The Ukrainians are now launching drones and missiles from balloons. Far greater reach.
How about connecting Saudi crude to the Eilat - Ashkelon line? Abraham Accords could do wonders here.
lol I see what you did there 👏🏽😂
Who (Whom) ...ever thought DRONES would be the deciding factor in world geopolitical/financial strategy and fortunes even 2 or 3 years ago, eh?? We do indeed live in interesting times!
RMA Revolution in Military Affairs.
The only realistic option, from a engineering perspective, has been to develop technologies that reduce the world's dependency on fossil fuels.
Oh, you mean wind and solar? Good idea. I imagine our Administration is pulling out all stops to get that going.
I’m pretty sure the Erdogan family has been taking the Kurdistan pipeline to the bank for quite some time, and no, this isn’t my favorite source: https://nordicmonitor.com/2025/08/erdogans-family-is-accused-of-using-shell-firms-to-hide-oil-transit-revenues-from-iraq/