South Africa's Immigration Problem || July 27, 2026
While the U.S. and South Africa similarly attract migrants from poorer neighboring countries because they are the strongest economies on their respective continents, that's where the similarities stop.
South Africa's post-apartheid arrangement means that illegal immigration affects groups very differently. Migrants taking low-skill jobs disproportionately impact black South Africans trying to escape the townships and move up the economic ladder, because they compete directly for these opportunities.
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Comments (24)
Interesting. So, apartheid was never actually abolished. Kind of like our welfare system.
Peter, thank you for the update - I wasn't aware that there is an illegal immigration problem in SA. By the way, it obviously slipped your mind, but the "White party" in South Africa is the *Democratic Alliance* (DA), which runs the Western Cape province, including Cape Town.
Township Rebellion, RATM
When we were in South Africa, we had many college-educated waiters from Zimbabwe.
You such a blessed man . Yosemite is so Beautiful.I was there in 64,,long terms memory still with me In current dreams .Thank God I have pictures too
Get ready for the liberals to be mad and say UBI works. Cited with a study form the Liberal Woke Research University of California
I was just in S Africa for 3 weeks. Cape Town & Johannesburg are like you said, black versus white. The crime rate in Johannesburg is high. No one goes downtown because it's controlled by gangs who live in the towers. Cape Town on the other hand is pretty safe in most areas and is a very pretty city. I hired a car and driver for one week and saw a lot of the Country. It's absolutely beautiful. The average wage per month for most working is $262/month which is why most work hard on getting into tourism. You have to go to college, pass a State exam then you're allowed to work in the tourism industry. It's one of my most favored Countries having traveled all over the world.
Ian Smiths ideas on gradual transition tied to education, experience, and institution-building were spot on, but that is a hard pill to swallow when you're the "have not" looking over the fence at the "haves".
The labor situation in South Africa is more complex than you make it sound in a five minute video. Immigrant workers did not arrive in South Africa with independence: thousands of workers from places like Malawi and Zambia moved to SA, mainly to work in the gold mines, since the fifties or so. They could not bring their families with them, so it was understood they would stay a year or two and then return home. More recently, thousands of semi-skilled workers arrived from places like Nigeria to take jobs black South Africans did not want, and this has caused great resentment. Civil unrest has caused many of the migrant workers to return to the countries they came from, which in turn has created worker shortages despite high unemployment levels in the black communities.
Thank you for the South Africa post. Great context. One thing not clear in the post- you said those most “bothered” by immigrants are those who want to get out and move up the economic ladder. Assuming (perhaps incorrectly) that the immigrants are unskilled, it’s not clear to me why they would pose a problem for those who choose to get a better education/ job/ move on.
Blacks live in free housing, immigrants brought in to do undesirable jobs that need done, whites don't mind as long as jobs get done, blacks steal to supplement their income, whites live among themselves to insulate themselves from the black culture, blacks live in substandard housing (but hey, its free), some blacks are trying to better their lives and that of their families but get undercut by unchecked illegal immigration that floods labor markets....... yeah...... that's not happening ANYWHERE else.
Yesterday I started seeing multiple commentators suggesting Chinese oil reserves are far larger than thought. Maybe a challenge to the Zeihan world view… https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mTetYGY-w5E&pp=ugUEEgJlbg%3D%3D
He is more suggesting the world is in a recession and the oil crises is giving China the cover to not buy oil that would expose its weak economy.
Good Monday Peter! I always love the scenery you pick to be in your discussions. Also What happened to your arm? Looks like a scab or something.
are you going to engage with Ryan Macbeth? i think he’s got you in all subjects besides demographics
Are you kidding? That weirdo isn't worth the time of day.
The native South Africans never should have taken that deal. It's economic apartheid. The white South Africans knew this when they offered it, and the majority of native population is only now coming to this realization. The EFF was right from the start. Speaking only of South Africa, what is needed now is reparations in the form of 50% ownership of its corporations. Not total nationalization, but one in which native South Africans have an equal voice in the economic future of their country.
How do you do the reparations you are proposing without a massive outflow of cash and de-investment? If I was investing in South Africa, the first thing I would want to do is get my money out.
I’m curious if you hike alone or you have a hiking partner .. might be a bit dangerous always on your own
He has stated he hikes solo.
Interesting… There are elements of a test case for UBI where everything is free at subsistence level. This reduces any agency or desire to get ahead for a majority of the population. Theft or expropriation of others property rather work is the method for increased material property. Maybe this circumstance is so unique that you cannot draw an analogy.
People misrepresent UBI as "free stuf". In the US (a very, very different culture) what most of that money would represent is pass-through payments to housing (rent), utilities, health insurance, and food. In terms of budget, subtract the existing overhead and outlay for Section 8, food stamps, Medicare, etc. The dilemmas are how to do it without allowing those markets to capture (and hike) prices, particularly housing, and how to avoid, as Peter terms it, "disincentives" which is a social and cultural idea, however inflected, excepting for example, any populations we don't necessarily think of as needing incentives, such as the 50% of boomers in retirement age who don't have savings. As far as human psychology goes, I think a feared mass disincentivization won't occur because a minimum income won't be enough for things people want. What will be impacted is a labor market that currently prices labor at the coerced rate (the rate they can demand when everyone is forced to work). By conventional economic theory at some level people will work for a wage doing whatever- so libertarians should welcome a return of a market that sets the price of free labor. Companies and consumers that exploit that labor right now won't immediately like that, but in the end, given a chance, the market will moderate, and frankly I don't think much would change on the ground.
Very useful insights.
Low Oxygen Peter Zeihan is like my 3rd favorite Peter Zeihan