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Canadian Pipes - transcript.pdf 25.3 KB
July 6, 2026

A Canadian Pipe(line) Dream || July 6, 2026

The Canadians are fed up with being dependent on U.S. markets for their oil exports. So, they're looking to diversify their export options.

The Canadian government has backed a pipeline project that would allow Alberta's oil to reach overseas markets. With global demand rising, this project makes a lot of sense, but there are a few problems. No export terminal has been selected since all the potential sites face significant logistical challenges, and even on the most optimistic timelines, construction wouldn't be completed until 2034.

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Comments (40)

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TJW · July 13, 2026

A different relationship with the US sounds like making Alberta a *permanent* price taker with no other possible markets. Screw that.

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Alan Berk · July 13, 2026

By the time the pipeline is built Alberta will be part of the US and using US pipelines

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CumulusGranitis · July 13, 2026

Have a look at Richard Romer's (sp?) book "Exxoneration" from the 70's. IF for some reason the gov't that Lives south of the 49th parallel decides to invade, like the Iran situation, they will find they that that they have taken on a country that will stand up to anyone who behaves like a school yard bully.

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Gil Bernal · July 9, 2026

Oil pipeline to Delta would seem to be a ridiculous idea. Perhaps the thinking is that since there is a large container port there already, they can just expand that to include oil. Or perhaps they think they can just run a new pipeline along the existing highway/railway corridors. Not sure why they are not considering just doubling the existing pipeline. But a new pipeline through a significant agricultural area (Fraser Valley) and then heavily urban area sounds really expensive and fraught with engineering challenges. Pipeline... urban area... earthquakes... questionable.

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Perry Browne · July 13, 2026

This would largely follow the TMX pipeline right of way, which was already built and already was negotiated with the indigenous groups..there were protests but they were duds. Not sure what you’re talking about. I live in Delta and worked on the previous transmountain pipeline. You people have zero clue what you are talking about.

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Jerry Grant · July 8, 2026

Don't hold your breath. Carney announces things, he doesn't do things. Unless it gives him more power, of course, but a pipeline doesn't do this.

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Rick Moen 🇺🇸🇳🇴🇬🇧 · July 8, 2026

I know only a little about coastal BC geography, but am wondering why Ottawa isn't weighing a mountain passage and port further north. Is it because of First Nations rights? Lack of good locations for deepwater ports? Certainly, the emergence of both the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline and the contemplated expansion at places in Metro Vancouver is awkward, so how about somewhere even more rural than City of Delta (which I know as the primary shooting location for "Resident Alien", which makes it seem a charming spot).

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kapowpow · July 7, 2026

Why would Albertan independence and a new relationship with the US help? Wouldn't the undesirable Albertan crude still be trapped in a captive refining market, forcing producers to accept low prices? It's the "liberal" Canadian federal government offering to spend $40 billion on an export pipeline.

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Twomix · July 7, 2026

All that Canadian heavy sour crude could technically flow to East Asia at scale by 2034, if the Trans Mountain expansion pans out. Note: the base infrastructure already exists — this is about expanding capacity further. The real questions are (1) whether Middle East disruptions persist long enough to push Asian refiners toward Canadian barrels specifically, and (2) whether Canada's port capacity — not the pipeline — ends up being the actual bottleneck.

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Joe Harwell · July 7, 2026

Is this to the actual delta port container port that exists today?

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Jean-Luc Sills · July 7, 2026

Don't worry Peter, Canada will find a way, with pipelines in the West and a Gaz pipeline in Churchill Ontario for EU Market. We are fed-up with US. We will hike our prices on everything going to US soon. Nobody buys American products here. This will last forever.

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Madust · July 7, 2026

They're not talking about independence, American psyops are pushing that narrative ;)

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Brian Jaggard · July 6, 2026

A pipeline to Delta wouldn't run through Vancouver. It would go through Abbotsford, Langley (where I live), Surrey then Delta. The biggest problem is getting the 9 to 11 First Nations groups to agree to allow access since they have a habit of blocking development.

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RRG · July 6, 2026

I'm curious. Why run a pipeline west to Vancouver? That requires going up and over the Rockies, and then through heavily populated areas. Why not run east and downhill through prairie to Lake Superior? There's already pipeline in place for half the journey, that jogs south through Michigan and Minnesota. It seems like that could be extended quite easily, or expanded on the existing rights-of-way.

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Blair Murri · July 6, 2026

Probably to ease Asian sales over European sales

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Billh · July 6, 2026

Couldn't Canada build a refinery to handle this crude? How would costs compare to building what looks to be an unpopular pipeline?

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John Lusty · July 8, 2026

Canada already has a significant refining base across several provinces, and some Canadian refineries — especially in Alberta — are directly integrated with oil-sands production and upgraded synthetic crude. Once bitumen has been upgraded into synthetic crude oil, it is no longer the same refining challenge as raw bitumen or diluted bitumen, and it can be processed by a wider range of refineries. The non-upgraded portion of oil-sands production is often exported as diluted bitumen or other heavy crude blends, historically mainly to U.S. refineries that are configured to handle heavier feedstocks and produce high-value products such as diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, asphalt, and other refined products. Canada is also now exporting more crude to tidewater through the expanded Trans Mountain system, which gives Canadian producers better access to overseas customers, particularly in Asia. Additional west-coast takeaway capacity is being evaluated through optimization of the existing Trans Mountain system and potential new pipeline concepts. Peter’s post seemed somewhat negative, but the broader picture is more constructive: expanding market access, improving optionality for Canadian producers, supplying U.S. and overseas refiners, and capturing better value for Canadian resources are all fundamentally positive — even though the politics, permitting, capital costs, and environmental concerns make execution challenging.

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AlJASillySTEMGuy · July 6, 2026

Are you picking up Ryan McBeth's gauntlet?

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NeilJT · July 6, 2026

Except this is all politics. There is no private investment announced. With the increasing incentive not to rely on foreign energy supply, an market may be gone by the time it opens in the mid-2030s

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Lewis Lobdell · July 6, 2026

Why no Canadian refinery? Time and cost to build?

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Michael Carrie · July 6, 2026

Environmental regulations would be my guess.

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G O Paul & Ticks · July 6, 2026

Gas-lighting again Peter?: ... you have been an Alberta join the US propagandist for years. You should be more concerned about your own backyard (budget deficits, absolute shameless grift (from jets to cryptocurrency), losing a war to Iran, exiting NATO which will result in nuclear proliferation with easy ballistic missile development (see N. Korea, rinse and repeat), an emasculated manufacturing base (the US today would lose a war to WW2 US), Super PACS for the billionaire Oligarchs etc., a newly funded police force (ICE) that does not show ID and masks their faces, a compromised Justice Department, FBI, etc. This will not end with Trump's presidency.

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AlJASillySTEMGuy · July 6, 2026

Well, I guess you're new to this board. You think Peter is a MAGAT? Your post is laughable. Oh, hey, are you a Russky bot intent on sewing a bit of chaos?

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William Huggins · July 6, 2026

whole lot of separatist posting about inevitability. no way you want it bad enough to fight us about it (36 v 5? really?) so just take your stolen voter data and keep mumbling about texas-north for another 80 years

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Digital Window · July 6, 2026

Canada has a pipeline to Trump-land. Europe has a pipeline to Putin-land. When there's a crazy dictator threatening sovereignty, I can see why they would think a difficult engineering project for a new pipeline seems like the easier, obvious choice.

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Tony Goldenberg · July 6, 2026

Alberta joining the USA? They would be flooded with guns, possibly lose if they haven't already, womens right to choose, and have a Pedo idiot and his supporting party taking apart their governing machinery. Would they really choose to live under modern Republican Governance?

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AlJASillySTEMGuy · July 6, 2026

Peter mentioned independence, not joining the kingdom of Trump.

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Weim Time · July 6, 2026

I think they will get this done. Strategically, if you believe the US to now be a threat, I would question why you are going all in on ports that your neighbor could easily blockade, but that's a different question. Maybe the US isn't such a threat after all...

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Armando Rivas · July 6, 2026

The best recourse for Canada is try to get their oil ti their West Coast and then on to Asia, which is easier said than done, which means that the real challenge is changing the way the federation functions, IF ( big if) the Albertans were to join the US they would be joining an already energy rich country

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Freebeard · July 6, 2026

You seem favorable on Albertan independence. But come on, that's even more of a pipe dream than the pipeline pipe dream.

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Ian F · July 6, 2026

When you look at the map, it does not look like an easy route. Delta Port is there, but by port standards it's not very big and appears to be set up for container receiving and possibly coal exporting. Hard to say where they would fit the infrastructure for oil export. And as Peter mentioned, getting there requires going through some somewhat sensitive parts of B.C. By the time they get through that ... discussion... it may be faster and cheaper to go 3/4 across Canada to the St. Lawerence...

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AlJASillySTEMGuy · July 6, 2026

Isn't that twice as far?

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Rob Baur · July 6, 2026

Will be very hard to get the pipeline through First Nations land.

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Philip Corrie Mooney · July 7, 2026

This is on an already existing route. FN will just get more cash.

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Erik · July 6, 2026

Someone got the case of the Mondays title

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Luc Taesch · July 6, 2026

Title issue ?

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Zeihan on Geopolitics · July 6, 2026

Oops! Must have been too busy celebrating this weekend...just updated!

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Alfa Eco · July 6, 2026

Canadians are fed up. It will move fast.

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Melvin · July 6, 2026

US approves. More US diluent from shale to Canada. It's a win win.

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Kyle Lame · July 6, 2026

I was voted “Most Designed to run on Heavy Sludge” in High School!