The U.S. and Ukraine Make a Drone Deal || July 3, 2026
The U.S. has finally secured its first contract to manufacture Ukrainian-designed drones, but don't go celebrating quite yet.
The F10 drone that will be produced is a small FPV quadcopter built entirely from non-Chinese components. This is a big step for the U.S., but it's not nearly the crème de la crème of Ukrainian tech.
The facility where these drones will be made is yet to be built, so even this initial order of 2,000 drones will take several years to complete. Regardless, this is a step in the right direction that will hopefully lead to further cooperation down the road.
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Comments (43)
The Ukrainians have been making drones in their lounge rooms , surely thy could hire a shed and get manufacturing straight away
I recall your dire predictions for Ukraine in this conflict in the early days, which was obviously the expected outcome. I guess that shows that leaders trained as spies (and real estate developers) are bad at waging war. Just curious if you’d consider a longer-form piece bullet-pointing (bad pun) the significant shifts in the war and how you think it plays out from here. If you wrote a book about the future of warfare, I’d be extremely interested. I’m reminded of the Star Trek episode “A Tast of Armageddon”, and it seems prescient today.
Good post Peter. Quick question, are you aware of the Drone incursion at Barksdale AFB in March of this year. Multiple unidentified and sophisticated and choreographed ingress and egress maneuvers that shut down B52 deployment to Middle East. I first heard about it on Army Times news magazine. Was not on World News Tonite to my knowledge.
There are thousands of dedicated, intelligent military and civilian analysts who could figure out the future of drone warfare just from analysis of our many, many failures in the Iran War. The question is whether or not our political leadership allows such an inquiry to takeplace.
How come Elon Musk can build an entire vehicle assembly plant in a year and it takes several years to build a drone factory?
As an American, I would advise the Ukrainians to be careful dealing with the current administration.
why is this good news? Why is it good news that we are getting more involved in the stupid ass Ukraine war? Instead of brushing our hands off and walking away? What the fuck do we actually gain out of this? Nothing, so far as I can see. Can you tell me otherwise? Of course Donald Trump despises Zelensky, he is a joke and a puppet of the Nazi scumbags who run his country and the American Neo Cons who support said Nazi scumbags. This whole thing is such a sad, pathetic joke. A dying empire, trying to weaken another dying empire. What the fuck good is there to see in any of this?
Aaron Bennett: Would you like me to ship you a paper bag, so we can see whether you can think your way out of it?
Wait. The F10? The F10 will be obsolete by January of 2027 and we won't be producing them until 2029? By 2029, they'll be up to the F36
trump wants payback for Zelensky not making up incriminating evidence about Hunter Biden. Also for being a genuinely strong and popular leader.
Did they finally find that dirt of Hunter Biden?!?!
The decision making bit is honestly not a hard nut to crack. Recent innovations in gaussian environmental inputs (ie. "splatting") have negated the need for hardcore onboard compute. Drone tinkerers have already implemented the tech for hunting, fishing, bird identification, etc. By the time they hang the drywall on their factory it will have already become commonplace...
Haven’t followed the comments closely so sorry if I’m covering old material, but Trump’s bromance with Putin aside why does Trump have a hard on for Z?
Only 3 years late. Great job, guv !
The US needs the drones more than Ukraine. "Big bad weapons are best!" think is so very hard to overcome.
Some good news? Before Trump was elected, I’d watch these videos and be inspired and optimistic about how great our country is. Since? These videos are depressing. Let’s hope things improve world wide. Trump won’t be around forever. And the World Cup has reminded us , this country rocks.
Peter; Have you heard of of any drug kingpin wars being fought with drones? Also who is is using AI to develop new products... this makes me think about how Rockefeller used his rail connections to move and monopolize the oil trade in the late 1800. I suspect the real innovation in the next 20 years will not be AI and the big Data Centers, but the guys who create lots of new patents using ai... material design and pharmaceuticals come to mind.
If you were Zelensky, would you share your leading-edge technology with the US, given our questionable reputation as a Ukraine ally? Who or what would stop Donnie from sharing it with Putin?
Well, Zelensky can't count on Russia as an ally.... and Trump won't be president forever. Are these drones really leading edge, or an example of mass production of what basically works?
I'm ready to have a president where US policy doesn't depend on what kind of mood he is in when he wakes up each morning.
The ability of US manufacturing to build drones at a scale no one else can, plus the value added of US engineering in their design, will put more, and more lethal drones in the hands of Ukrainian soldiers. ...... Claiming that POTUS will kill this partnership after the proper US licensing and DOS approval has been granted, without him actually doing so, is biased and irresponsible journalism...... We already get it that you don't like Trump.
"The ability of US manufacturing to build drones at a scale no one else can" - seriously, Lee? Have you heard of "China"?
Oops somebody is hacking me
Who has the cards now
Lol.... 2000 drones over the next couple of years huh. wow that's a real humdinger. So that means we can make about a motor a day huh? China can pump out thousands per day
Can they build a drone that targets grotesque orange fukwit conmen. That would solve so many global problems. Hit him right in his diaper.
You can have Trump and MAGA, or you can have a sound, strong, forward-focused America. You can't have both.
IT's probably b/c Donnie Boy doesn't have a "piece" of it yet!
The infrastructure construction timeline is nuts. There has to be older manufacturing capabilities that can be rehabilitated for this purpose and at some time and cost savings. Auto manufacturing or related parts manufacturing come to mind…
Well, if you want 100% American inputs or close to it, probably not so much. We don't necessarily manufacture large numbers of small, sophisticated electric motors, PCB boards, the chips, the carbon fiber, etc. Etc. If you're going to bring all of that in-house, I suspect it's going to be more complicated you might think. However, that lead time is simply unsatisfactory. There has got to be a way to stand up some kind of capability faster than that...
Not sure about this whole starting my morning on a positive note. You let me down Zeihan. Now I have to find a whole new Debbie Downer.
Oh, goody, more M.I.C. UNIPARTY NEOCON toys. How's your rent, energy, gas, and food going, eh?
When I heard the description, I got a bit sick. A 10" drone with a mild explosive load is a very limited weapon with a primary purpose of anti-personnel or car-like vehicles. In other words, it is ideal for U.S. police and in particular federal agencies and big city forces. I would bet that as soon as these come out, some will be diverted to anti-civilian use. Police have been drooling for something like this from the git-go.
Funny but close enough. I visualize drones being the next law enforcement tool, yes. Helicopters are expensive. Fixed suveillance cameras have limitations. Tech miniaturization of newfangled sensors means that all the diesel truck owners that deleted diesel are going to be easily spottable from the air. They'll "paint" a target with a laser and the nearest cop will pull them over. Same for the Rat-rod types (loud mufflers) with aucoustic triangulation. Pursuit with drones means less high speed chases and drone operators can read mirandas and give commands at a distance.
It all depends on who's hands the drones end up in... I doubt the Ukrainian war will last another 3 or 4 years.
With such a speed the US will be way behind the rest of the world.
Personally, I'd be stockpiling Chinese motors left and right for the for the short-term... Any other relevant materials they'll sell us as well. I've already conjectured the Taiwanese have done similar both for their own production items and for things made on the mainland.. That's your shortcut right there.
Donnie will want to redirect that contract money to help finance the Trump-class battleships
He would certainly prefer to, left to his own devices... But then, there are severe limitations to his attention span, to say the least....
I love how the US can't procure the military technology it needs to stay competitive because they have a man toddler as president.
The more that time goes on the less I think that Trump is actually making the decisions. Not to mention the US isnt counting on using the drones Peter is talking about since the plant in Ohio wont be open until 2029 but the US will still have 200,000 drones by next December
It seems Ukraine can play with no or even bad cards. https://youtu.be/cOQBC4_i28s?is=KSSOogDyz6WSvPDi
When you can just innovate and print your own Ace of spades on demand, you don't really need to start out with too many cards.. That's what the ukrainians bring to the table. Very definitely want these guys to be on our side...