July 1 Deadline for NAFTA Renegotiations || July 1, 2026
The July 1 deadline to review the USMCA (aka NAFTA 2.0) is here. Spoiler alert: don’t expect any meaningful progress.
Talks with Mexico are underway, but Canada has been brushed aside. The U.S. is focused on tightening rules of origin, Mexico wants relief on steel and aluminum, and Canada wants dairy protections. And it looks like all of that will remain unresolved.
The Trump administration doesn't have the bandwidth to negotiate effectively, so we'll be stuck with annual reviews rather than six-year reviews. This prolonged uncertainty is awful for the U.S. and its manufacturers, adding another self-inflicted obstacle for the U.S. industrial base.
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Comments (22)
Aqui não tem pessoas de verdade aqui só tem sistemas automáticos
Peter, the industrial sector buildout is slowing? I live in Arizona and the industrial sector buildout is out of control as it is in Texas, Florida and most red states. Yes, California is shrinking (I closed my Calf operations of 65 employees) and consolidated it into my AZ operations. Red states (not Colorado/Calif/NY/NJ...) are on fire and growing quickly.
I can see the state of US economy by the number of US tourists on the Mediterranean; you are in a deep recession, regardless of if you want to admit it or not ...
While Mexico may have a problem with steel and aluminum tariffs, I'll point out that Canada has a larger issue with that sector than the administration's fight about dairy. US tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper have done significant damage to Canadian GDP, because the mining, manufacturing and export contributes substantially to our economy. I'm surprised that you would ignore that fact and instead, only mention Canadian dairy, almost as an aside, as a sticker in negotiations.
Why??? What the fk did Canada ever do to the States? What is the rational behind this hatred Trump has on Canada? Wouldn’t we all be better off working together on this big beautiful continent? We would be unstoppable.
Do you truly think Trump caused the biggest deindustrialization in your lifetime? NAFTA had less impact on textiles, automotive, and electronics ? (to name a few). The rize of China manufacturing had nothing to do with NAFTA being exploited?... Trump put us in a holding pattern but I cant see it as the biggest deindustrialization just yet
The United States decided against renewing its trade deal with Mexico and Canada, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said, according to a media report on Wednesday. That will trigger annual reviews of the agreement for the next decade, introducing more uncertainty for North American manufacturers. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, also called USMCA, won't expire for another 10 years, assuming no country decides to exit it. Yearly reviews will take place instead of a longer-term renewal, potentially leading to years of heated negotiations over the rules addressing supply chains and low tariff levels for farmers, automakers, and energy companies. Ahead of the official announcement, Grier told Bloomberg News that the administration is "not prepared to rubber stamp the agreement." "We think there are substantial issues," he said, noting that several changes are needed to remedy imbalances. The first Trump administration negotiated the USMCA in 2020. At the time, President Donald Trump called it the "best and most important trade deal ever made." But in his second term, the president was frustrated that he wasn't allowed to raise tariffs to address trade deficits with Canada and Mexico. Under USMCA's terms, the administration could have extended the agreement by 16 more years on its sixth anniversary, July 1, 2026.
I subscribe for your analysis on all topics, Peter, irrespective of whether it crosses shibboleths such as political aisles. Even when you are too harsh on someone or something I favor, I always welcome your analysis. Without your analyzing every facet of every perspective, your perceptions would be siloed, just like the rest of the media. Which is why I subscribe: for your individual, informed, and incisive perspectives that often stand alone and apart. Thank you. Keep 'em coming!
I subscribe for your demographic evaluations, not for your very slanted political stance. Get back to the middle.
Industry & Corporate Titans in America don't get a pass, where NAFTA negotiations and the Trump Administration's stupid tariff policies are concerned. They were obligated to have pushed back on the foolishness. Instead, the silence and unwillingness on the part of powerful corporations to challenge actions that are bad for business led to the mess Trump has created. Incompetence in carrying out NAFTA negotiations, constantly changing tariff policies, and just recently, the Supreme Cult's "Slaughter" decision placing formerly independent federal agencies at the will of a corrupt president, all serve in their own way to to weaken labor protections, restrict consumer safeguards, ease oversight of powerful industries at the cost of worker protections, fair business practices, balanced markets, and long-term conditions for American prosperity. CEOs of America decided to appease the Administration, so they're complicit in the undermining of American commerce -- cowards!
They are all trying to stay beneath the event horizon to avoid tRump splatter. And I don't blame them one bit. We would have done better to outsource this to the Chamber of Commerce. But hey, just another doged USG tale. Another bad day for us.
We are at Colossus, with feet of Clay
Yeah, well, at least we had a cage fight on the White House lawn... :(
You never hear any follow-up news about the guys arrested planning a drone strike on the cage match?
Trump hates Canada? Oh, right, they politely told Trump to "F**K OFF." I'm seeing a trend here. Twenty-nine months to go.
Happy Canada Day 🇨🇦
CHIPs act construction already peaked coupled with tariff uncertainty is why investors are holding off on investing and why manufacturing expenditures are slowing (21% drop off).
Pete Mate - all the great news you have for us??!! You must be feeling like a cancer doctor.
Well, he does have a good bedside manner.
Remember, 80m Americans voted for this. MAGA still supports all of this.
It's the Kool-Aid they serve at the rallies and town meetings. They use a special sweetener imported from Russia.
Yet another problem that the Golden Protocol will solve! Trade negotiations are one of the six million forms of communications et is fluent in. We just need to deplete like 10%-30% of the worlds fresh water and increase the temperature 3 more degrees Celsius and we’ll have enough compute to make a boys dream of having a Golden Robot to do all its bidding come true!