U.S. Oil Export Restrictions Coming Soon || June 29, 2026
If global energy supplies remain constrained, the U.S. government will prioritize U.S. consumers over international markets. This would take the form of export restrictions.
These restrictions could take several forms. The first would be halting U.S. crude exports, which would keep more oil at home, but would also strain storage capacity and hurt shale producers and refiners in the process. The more likely option would be taxing exports of refined products, which would lower domestic prices and push the burden onto global markets.
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Comments (33)
Peter, the oil refiners mix Venezuela's heavy crude with our light sweet crude, both of which are plentiful. There is absolutely no problem with supply or demand here in the USA. We export 5million barrels per day to a world market that is hungry for our supply.
Export taxes are explicitly banned by the Constitution, I thought.
I'm not sure I'm seeing how this all works. Most countries are depleting their reserves. Eventually everyone panics and start to pay whatever to get oil. That drives global prices up. But the US gets most of its heavy crude from Canada. Canada has limited pipelines to pump to the west coast. So vast majority of Canada crude has to go to the US - no real choice. So why is the US depleting its reserves as it seems we have no issue sourcing heavy crude. And we should have no problem exporting the light stuff produced in the US. Buy Canadian crude at high prices. But sell the sweet crude at equally high prices. You would think someone could make that balance out.
Hey Peter, can you comment on perhaps any idea you have on why it seems that oil prices are acting a bit irrational at the moment? Is oil just less important than it used to be? Is there actually far more oil escaping the gulf than we all thought? Perhaps some state actors doing something in order to keep prices down, whether that be China massively reducing their imported barrels or perhaps institutions shorting the price aggressively? It just seems that something is fishy. I’m also perplexed at the apparent lack of concern that most countries have regarding the impending shortage we seem to be rushing into. For example here in Australia the excise on fuel has been halved and now fuel is cheaper than it was before the start of the war and they’re going to halve it again so it becomes even cheaper! if they really were a fuel crisis surely the government would know about this and the last thing you’d want to do is to try and reduce price and increase demand?? everything seems topsy-turvy at the moment
To know with which option trump will go we need to ask ourselves which option would hurt West and help Russia more. That's the decision our "unpredictable" president always chooses.
Aren't export taxes unconstitutional? Not that that would stop Trump ...
I highly doubt they would pull the trigger. It would piss off other countries (EU/Asian allies would feel absolutely betrayed) and it would damage US oil/gas dominance. Small scale US shale companies could face bankruptcy for being unable to export light/sweet shale oil products. Note: oil exporters earn a lot more from oil exports than internal consumption, they would throw a tantrum/revolt.
Love you Peter but again this analysis is in direct conflict with the market. $1Trillion of market bets says otherwise. Peter has been out of step with the market for most of these event.
It'll be the option which would supposedly save Trump's posterior in the midterms - at the cost of everything else.
He'll say it's not a tax, it's an "administration fee". ;o) Iran may teach him something yet.
Taxing Exports? Article I, Section 9, Clause 5, which states: "No Tax or Duty shall be laid on Articles exported from any State."
Perhaps Trump's response depends on how much the oil companies are willing to send in donations and bribes to the Trump family and his small circle of friends?
OAE, OMAN, Gabon, Velisuala , Indonesia, possibly Iraq and other s are leaving OPEC in order to avoid OPEC quota restrictions . They want to pump more oil than currently allowed under OPEC. So why restrict US production as it appears that eventually, world wide supply/demand will equalize and oil that transits the Straights will become less needed or replaced all together through other sources. Why do we not then take the opportunity to replenish our strategic oil reserves when domestic crude oil prices in the US tank? This would incentivize US oil producers to keep pumping at a time when the USA can refill out strategic oil reserves as a discount price.
Because that would be the intelligent and pragmatic thing to do, two things I certainly don't equate with Chump!
What are your thoughts on the Dept of Energy’s “Forge” geothermal project? Has geothermal’s time come for the country’s energy needs?
Living overseas, it sounds like gasoline and diesel prices are about to go through the roof. Glad the electricity here is still generated mostly with coal and clean sources (geothermal, hydro, solar, wind), and I just took delivery of my first EV. We have acres of grass to control and we are about to retire the mowing machines and switch to cows. (Really. I am serious.)
Exactly
How would an export tax be implemented? That's explicitly verboten per article 1, section 9, line 5 of the constitution
He did say it wasn't the legal option. Remember, we're discussing what Trump would do.
But Peter...... What do you say to people that say to blend the light sweet crude with whatever heavy sour you import to the point you can refine it in a local refinery? I understand that will still put pressure on price but at least its not "zero oil".
What was that oft seen Chinese fortune cookie fortune: (curse) "you shall live in interesting times". Got it now eh?
Chicken Little strikes again.
Can you elaborate
Selfish question; what happens to oil/gas midstream (pipeline) companies?
U.S. Constitution. Article I, Section 9 states No Tax or Duty shall be laid on Articles exported from any State Maybe we ban the export of refined fuels but I don't think exports can be taxed.
Exxon's CEO would have a stroke I think...
Exxon has oil worldwide
Fantastic backdrop,Peter ... The video certainly ... cannot do justice ... 👏👏👏
If this happens and Europe might have to put up with 14 dollars per gallon at the gas station. Currently it’s around 7-8 dollars. Then, what stops France to go after Algeria, Italy and Turkey to go after Libya and Turkey alone to go after Northern Iraq to let’s say force an exclusive oil deal? Which would all further decrease global freely traded supply.
Yeah, that was kind of the gist of large parts of his last book - regionalization in energy markets, with exactly that scenario.
Yet another wakeup call for EU officials.
What I’m getting from this is: “It’s a great time to stockpile diesel in your house in unsecured, non-DoT regulated containers, Kyle.”
Just watch the Its Always Sunny episode again, The Gang Solves The Gas Crisis. Its essentially a how to