Say Goodbye to Kazakhstan Oil || June 26, 2026
The Ukrainian strike on the Orenburg natural gas processing complex could impact more than just Russia. Unfortunately, Kazakhstan's energy industry is highly dependent upon that facility.
Natural gas, propane, and oil from the Karachaganak field all flow through Orenburg. As these strikes continue, more and more of the energy projects that foreign companies have invested in throughout Kazakhstan will be threatened.
Russian infrastructure and transit networks remain critical to Kazakhstan's energy industry. If these strikes continue, there are few viable alternative routes for Kazakh exports, which could end Kazakhstan's ability to get energy products to global markets.
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Comments (24)
@PeterZeihan: We are clearly heading for a petroleum energy crunch, and higher fuel prices as a result. Simultaneously, we're dealing with electricity-sucking data centers spreading like dandelions in the wake of rain and warm weather. Question: Will the higher petroleum prices affect data center costs and the industries that use them (e.g. "cloud services", AI)? If I understand correctly, the data centers be spared a direct hit from the price hikes due to the electrical grid being more reliant upon non-petroleum sources?
How far is Kazakhstan from China ?
Hey Peter, if China’s currency is so worthless, how can they establish such a high currency exchange rate?
I excited to see Russian implode
I like your book
What’s your read on Big Oil’s likely response to the strangulation of their sunken capital in Kazakhstan?
What is the potential downside to damaging Kazakhstan and Big Oil assets? Have the Kazaks been 'neutral' thus far, and could this drag them into it further, supporting Russia? And will Big Oil go crying to DJT, causing the US to more actively support all anti-Ukraine efforts?
Here’s the map you need to make sense of this: https://www.kpo.kz/fileadmin/template/kpo/map-2011/map_01_en.gif
I'm concerned at some point Putin may use an oreshnik that doesn't have dummy warheads in the near future...
My guess is that China will start funding processing plants in Kazakstan and import the oil and gas to cut Russia out of the loop if supplies from Iran are blocked long term.
Really good idea, but they are up against the time (3 to 5 years) it would take to build the refinery from scratch.
It’s kind of amazing to see what a medium sized power is capable of doing to a great power. Ukraine giving Russia bloody nose and holding its own, Iran, giving Israel and the US a bloody nose and holding its own, Pakistan being able to hold its own and give India a bloody nose… now the only question is do the Chinese think they’re different or will they also choose to get into a conflict with say Taiwan and get a bloody nose
Yes indeed. But China is waiting until America has finished giving itself several bloody noses. Once Uncle Sam has absolutely convinced all his allies that he really is a solipsistic bloviating scrap heap of childish impulsivity they’ll just wander in with free trade agreements, cheap loans for infrastructure, and non-molestation treaties they have no intention of honouring. Everyone’ll sign up, and hope for the best, because Sam ain’t trading no more, and sure as s*+t ain’t comin’ with guns either. Still waiting to see if he’s genuinely going pull out of NATO. That’ll be the clincher. Also, when Ukraine destroys Putinism there’ll be rich pickings for China in the vacuum that’ll open up to her east.
From the Khazak pov, what would be the best solution in financial terms?
What's that shaking, cracking, rumbling something big is about to fall down sound I hear? Crimea is locked down. Moscow is under attack. Russia is pulling out air defenses from the front to protect Moscow and St. Petersburg. Front line soldiers are making loud complaints. They are talking about mutiny and leaving the front. Maybe it's my imagination. But, there was a time when the Russian army simply turned around and went home after running out of blood and money, in Crimea, of all places. The next few months are truly critical for both sides. PS: Trump bailing on Ukraine may have been a blessing in the long run. American policy was always to tell them to back off from using U.S. weapons on the Russian mainland, scolding them about messing with the oil supply, always being a day late and dollar short on much needed war materiel. Those restraints are gone now, with results including attacking the crap out of Russia, even Moscow, even the oil industry, with whatever weapon that works.
In addition, since it's obvious to the Ukrainians that the US isn't a reliable partner, they helped themselves by developing drone technology in Ukraine. The success of this development, in turns, leads us to the rumbling sound you hear.
Russia is doing their rope a dope, how long until they fall?
The Ukrainian government failed their Dale Carnegie course
That’s a good one!
I guess Zelenskyy has accomplished something that Trump never could. Namely: "It's Infrastructure Week"
Can’t Kazakhstan move its resources over the Caspian to Azerbaijan and export it the same way over Georgia or the new Trump corridor, over Turkey and then to Europe? Kazakhstan, just like Azerbaijan and Turkey is also part of this new geopolitical block for Turkic states Funny thing is even Hungary is part of this group but don’t know if Magyar already took the country out
Using other means for Kazakhstan to move the crude product is likely not the problem. The problem is finding a non-Russian facility to refine it and clean it up.
Awesome news if you’re Ukrainian. Sucks a$$ if you’re Russian or Kazakstan (and the oil companies that support that venture). That source of energy is gone. It’s not too late for Russia to give up. Before it’s too late. 🥳🎉
If Russia gives up they're toast anyway, so they'll probably keep trying