The Long Awaited "Iran Deal" || June 18, 2026
The White House has shared the full tax of the long awaited Iran Deal. It's a doozy.
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Comments (76)
When you lose the war, you have to pay retribution as part of the Term of Surrender.
I figure either way I win. Either the US gets a good deal or Trump is finally exposed as the idiot he is.
I have to admit, marketing a Surrender as a Deal is kind of brilliant. Bold and if you have even a single braincell you'll see right through it but it is kind of brilliant. Sort of like a child lying to you badly when they've been caught doing something wrong. Shame the guy happens to be in charge of a shit ton of nuclear weapons or it'd almost be funny. That's without mentioning all the other crap, Epstein and all.
The Adults in the room knew TACO would capitulate; that's why it was called a "Memorandum of Understanding."
Your analysis leaves out the reality of the situation. We decapitated their leadership, they played the only card in their deck (Hormuz) and we called their bluff. We got higher prices. They lost their revenue stream. And we got someone else to pay for the damage. Like getting the vaccine done in record time, this is a win - regardless of the optics.
Ah..., no, they called Trump's bluff and he TACOed out. He is an incompetent coward who would sell out his mommy for three points on the brilliant Stock Market. You don't attack a desperate death cult regime without a plan and the will to follow through.
So many reports with bias all along tribal lines from everyone. I do not want to hear pro or anti this or that administration. It is next to impossible. 3, 2, 1, here come the tribal idiot comments that I am a Trump sycophant. When Biden was in office, idiot tribalist called me the same about Biden.
I'd like to see exactly how the 300 billion *and* "Hormuz fees" flow once they start flowing. Let me just say this: it Putin was involved he'd pocket half.
Israel should be paying that 300B.
The nearest relevant comparison: Watch the 1959 Film with Peters Sellers "The Mouse that Roared".
Gotta love it. From the BBC: "US lifts naval blockade as Iran's supreme leader says Trump made deal 'out of desperation'." This ought to make President Trump a happy, happy man.
One datum Peter Zeihan didn't include is that some genius on the Iranian side [Edit: No, it was Emmanuel Macron!] suckered TrumpCo into holding the formal signing in the Hall of Mirrors, Versailles Palace. TtrumpCo, being dumbasses, could be relied upon to see only "Hey, lots of glitz and gold leaf, exactly our style." They would totally miss it being _explicitly_ a place for humiliation of enemies, and so stepped into it and committed an epic self-own. • Clemenceau picked it in 1919 for the humiliating Versallies Treaty that formally ended the Great War. • The reason he did so is that the Germans, back in 1871, had used it as the place from which to announce the Second German Empire, consequent to France's humiliating defeat in the Franco-Prussian War.
I’m not even American and how could anyone sign this off?
Yet more support for an age limit on public service, restrictions on public office holders engaging in private sector money making (i.e. stocks, crypto, and other activities that we would call a conflict of interests), limits on campaign financing, and limits on the number of years someone is allowed to hold public office. I think 10 years for the House and 12 for the Senate. After that, go do something else.
It is a total surrender on the side of the US. If upheld, it is the most total and humiliating defeat in American history.
Let us all remember that Orange Man NEVER keeps his word. He feels bound by no contract or treaty. If he wants to break the law, contract, or treaty he will. ONLY when his feet are held to the fire in a court of law will he ever do what he agreed to, and even then he will wiggle and squirm as much as possible to get out of it. He is horrifically dishonest about everything. So to him agreeing to anything is agreeing to nothing, unless HE wants to do it.
If only someone had been warning everyone that the era of unrestricted globalized trade is over.
Did Putin share the pictures with the Iranians???
Before and after.
Gawdamn... "Me too" in Iran?
I cannot believe that PZ is stating this which is in total contrast to what is stated in all major news media....All the $$$ are released immediately??? PZ is in a fog??? He is not a reliable source for true information. He hates T and it is making him no better than MSNOW or CNN. ALL EMAILS TO ME AR DELETED UPON ENTRY.....NOTE THAT IF YOU CAN READ
So the amount (for comparison the Marshall plan was $180B of today's money to rebuild Europe after 6 years of WW2) and the urgency (placing it in MoU which normally don't have any hard agreements), what are ods that Iran has another agreement where those money (or part of it) actually will be forwarded to Russia. I can help but notice that everything trump does also somehow benefits Russia. For example one of the first things done after strait was closed was to lift sanctions on Russia and Iran (despite that it would do nothing to increase supply, only allow them to make more money). Of course sanctions on Iran were restored because it looked ridiculous but sanctions on Russia didn't. Russia currently is showing signs that it still have money problems despite all the favors it got.
Sounds like folks went to trump and said we really need Hormuz to open NOW or we're all going to be in a pile of trouble (See PZ's other posts on oil crisis). So trump looks at JD and Rubio and says I don't care what deal you have to make... just get Hormuz open again. And here we are. Guessing trumps handling of Iran will go down in history as one of the biggest strategic and political blunders in American history. And as I suggested in one of the chat's someplace, Iran now has 60 days to prepare for trump to change his mind, which he no doubt will do.
PZ has been stating for years that the US will be leaving the Persian Gulf. This accomplishes that. The US and Israel started this war. The US is basically folding rather than raising. Honestly, I am good with that at this point.
It's the best of the available shit-sandwiches. Next time, let's not go to the Shit-Sandwich Shoppe for lunch, eh?
Donald Trump is the WORST PRESIDENT EVER.
Hey Peter — quick thought. Visual Capitalist just published a chart on “Reliance on Middle East Oil,” ranking countries by how much Middle Eastern crude represents their total consumption and exports. Pakistan comes in as the third‑most dependent country on the list. So now we have Pakistan and the GCC — the players with the most to lose if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, and the most vulnerable to Iranian leverage — stepping forward as “our” negotiators. It’s one of those moments where America should look at the situation and say to itself: 活該 (huó gāi).
Going to the ME to negotiate is like going to a Piker camp to buy a caravan.
Peter, your interpretation of the MOU is way off base ... I realize you aren't a Trump fan, but what you just said is not correct.
cope cope cope
Trump got his unconditional surrender. Uh, only it turns out we were the ones who surrendered unconditionally.
Best thing I can say about this deal is I’m glad he didn’t double down and put boots on the ground
That is what I think Israel was trying to maneuver Trumpstein into. Just bailing was probably the best of shitty option. I'm surprised he accepted the humiliation. I'm also surprised he gave them so much. I was hoping he'd just walk and later EU partners would come in a work something out. Trumpstein is now actively funding the IRGC with $billions. I didn't have that on my Bingo card.
Maybe actual Americans don't care. Blame it on Trump and let people who actually live there fight their own battles.
Wow he really wants that Peace prize he was nominated for
You're one of a few people I trust for the truth.
You
Peter, Of all your posts, this is in the top five! Please post to Youtube so I may share with everyone who needs to here your words. Thank you for keeping it "real"! You
Who would’ve thought that a game show host from Queens, a real estate tycoon that had to flee New York because he kept stealing from contractors, personal best friend to Jeffrey Epstein for well over a decade, and conspiracy theorist would make fore a joke of a president… this whole administration is essentially the humor of giving a machine gun to a chimpanzee… Incredibly funny but extraordinarily dangerous
Your comment reminds me of that superbowl commercial that had all the monkeys ...
Trumpstein is bored with Iran. He wants to sail off to unconditionally surrender to Cuba next.
It is maybe a good sign that some Trump supporters are now at least entertaining the idea of "wait. How could this happen to the world's greatest negotiator?".. It's ok, come on in out of the cold and have some warm coacoa/coffee. It's good to have you back.
which trump supporters are saying that? all i see from those guys is a celebration about how much of a genius trump was to end the war and get gas prices back down.
Ok, according to Perplexity, your video this morning is loaded with inaccuracies; Peter is blending some real elements with a framing that overstates this as “war damage reparations” paid by the US, which is not how the fund is structured in the draft deal or in official descriptions. [facebook](https://www.facebook.com/LincolnJournalStar/posts/iran-remains-a-formidable-and-undefeated-force-capable-of-threatening-gulf-arab-/1477544824415597/) ## What the 300B actually is - Reporting from Reuters and others describes a proposed 300 billion dollar “reconstruction and development” or “investment” fund tied to the US–Iran framework, not a 300B cash transfer out of the US Treasury. [ndtv](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/jd-vance-explains-how-us-300-billion-reconstruction-fund-to-iran-would-work-11646914) - The idea is a large private and foreign‑government investment pool (Gulf, Asian, European capital) that would go into projects in Iran over many years if there is a final peace/nuclear deal and Iran sticks to it. [reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/iran-deal-includes-300-billion-fund-more-than-half-which-already-committed-2026-06-16/) ## Why people are calling it “war damage” money - Iranian officials and sympathetic commentators are explicitly pitching it at home as compensation or reconstruction for decades of war and sanctions, which is probably what Zeihan is picking up and dramatizing. [instagram](https://www.instagram.com/p/DYN6E0HneGQ/) - US officials, by contrast, keep insisting it is “not reparations” and “not US taxpayer money,” but a sanctioned‑access channel for outside capital to flow in if Iran meets strict conditions. [aljazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/16/will-a-us-iran-deal-unlock-300bn-in-investment-fund-for-tehran) ## What Zeihan is likely getting right and wrong - Basically right: - 300B is a huge number and would, in practice, help Iran recover from war damage and sanctions if it ever fully materialized. [facebook](https://www.facebook.com/LincolnJournalStar/posts/iran-remains-a-formidable-and-undefeated-force-capable-of-threatening-gulf-arab-/1477544824415597/) - Politically, it is easy to attack this as “paying Iran off,” and Zeihan is very attuned to those optics. - Misleading or incomplete: - Framing it as the US “paying 300B in war reparations” suggests a direct legal liability and a US budget outlay, which the draft does not do. [ndtv](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/jd-vance-explains-how-us-300-billion-reconstruction-fund-to-iran-would-work-11646914) - More than half of that 300B is described as private or already‑earmarked foreign investment commitments that would be *unlocked* if sanctions are eased, not new checks written by Washington. [reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/iran-deal-includes-300-billion-fund-more-than-half-which-already-committed-2026-06-16/) ## How to think about it analytically - If you strip away the rhetoric, the structure is: Iran rolls back nuclear and stops certain behaviors → US lifts or suspends some sanctions → foreign and private money can legally pour into Iranian reconstruction via a big fund. [aljazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/16/will-a-us-iran-deal-unlock-300bn-in-investment-fund-for-tehran) - Whether you *like* that or not is a policy judgment, but it’s more accurate to call it a conditional investment/reconstruction framework than a unilateral 300B US reparations payment. If you have a link or title for the specific Zeihan clip you watched, I can walk through his points line‑by‑line and flag which parts match the text of the draft deal and which parts are spin or extrapolation.
Peter is reading info he got yesterday, not today.
Are we tied of all the winning yet? The drooling, slack-jawed MAGA tards I know aren't talking about TDS much these days. Everyone they said had TDS were just telling them cold hard facts their smooth-brains couldn't grasp for years. They may be slow, but even they are starting to get it now. Remember kids: Trumpstein. Eventually. Betrays. Everyone. Just ask Bibi.
Bibi, hurt by Trump? It's like saying Teflon is affected by Teflon.
If this is how Americans fight wars, Cuba should start one immediately. They could quickly become one of the wealthiest nations in the Caribbean just by holding on for a month.
It was more of a police action. In terms of Cuba, they couldn't hold on for a month.
Im going to have to do a bit more research but my early diagnosis is america is completely fked.
We deserve it. We became a nation of unserious poodles. We thought it would be funny to elect a reality TV show clown to the office once held by Lincoln. And we did it twice. At least half of America deserves every inch of the shaft that's coming.
Did someone just copypasta the Ukraine deal from last year and replace "Ukraine" with "The USA" and "Russia" with "Iran"?
Bakers grove
You guys just don't get the brilliance of Trump here. He's showing to Putin that he too could withdraw completely from Ukraine including Crimea, pay a few Trillion dollars in reparations, create a DMZ that extends all the way back to the outskirts of Moscow, declare 100% victory, and pay Jesse Watters & Co. for life to shill the idea that it's a win for Putin endlessly to the world. Details of this twelve step "authoritarians who screwed up massively" program to follow in The Onion.
Unironically, yes, it is a flex against the field. A big flex. It says the US is sporting, and values some things more than winning, especially against recalcitrant opponents. The idea that weakness is showing you might capitulate for fear of losing men and material, is balaced by the strength in being able to move on.
It's a crap deal, but hoping this is it for the US in the Middle East. Not sure what Israel does here, Gulf States will be eager to make a deal with an Iran that holds all the cards and the US is clearly leaving. Pretty bleak, but they are incredibly nimble, so will need to get creative.
Congress to the rescue. They are drafting bipartisan legislation to functionally merge the IDF and the Pentagon in a deal that could take decades to undo.
The American mind struggling to grasp the idea that this is deal you get when you lose a war.
Is $110 oil and the entire military & civilian aparatus untouched called losing a war? It's called lack of commitment
Well, this is a *real issue*. You meant, other real issues that will come out of this one.
In case anyone wants to read the full MOU text as reported: https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl
whelp
Well this is a serious issue, and it's already been handled terribly. Only up from here is the only benefit...
The only upside I've found yet is Trump, unlike Putin, didn't wait 4+ years to figure out he'd made a colossal mistake. I just wish he didn't retreat in such a way that made the Biden pullout of Afghanistan look like a well planned and precisely executing withdrawal but what can you do?
Sounds like a hoax
That's right, we just need to keep telling ourselves, it's only a dream. It's only a dream. :P
I’m often pretty critical of Peter cus of his TDS but this isn’t TDS this is cold hard truth. This deal is complete dog shit and it’s time to start questioning Trumps mental state.
Moses, I'm so disappointed in you.
I’d care about this but my Uncle just lost like 3 mil Tomans on the Congo last night.
FAFO 😂😂😂
I am absolutely blown away at the stupidity of this administration. And sorry Peter. The last 48 hours has just been more of his dementia laden BS. It’s been there for over 10 years
The only way I think this could be true is if Trump is just saying whatever it takes to get oil flowing again. Then the minute the midterms are over in November he goes back to bombing everything in Iran.
Nah Trump is just incompetent and losing his mind.
A suez moment for the USA!!
Who's the bigger bad that slapped him down? In 56 it was the USA & USSR, both currently unavailable
“Just this winter, Trump had promised the Iranian people that the tyrants who ruled them would be gone. But now? ‘I never cared about regime change,’ he told reporters, waving away his failure to achieve a primary strategic goal by denying that it had ever been a goal at all.” Tom Nichols in The Atlantic (gift link): Trump Does Not Understand the War He Lost https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/2026/06/trump-g7-comments-misunderstsand-middle-east/687569/?gift=201cWZnM2XBz2eP81zy0pEkPepEkDVbWXNYZfqXTa_w&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share