We Have a Peace Deal! Sort of... || June 16, 2026

If the Trump administration says one thing and Iranian officials say another, it's tragic that most Americans lean toward believing Iran over our own President. It has never been this way before, and when this nightmare is over, I hope it's never like this again.

Well, I just saw the terms of the "peace deal". I think Peter might be wrong on this one. This deal might actually stick because it is a complete and unconditional surrender by the United States. $300 billion in war reparations (at purchasing power parity, this is nearly 6 times Iran's GDP) Lifting of sanctions Permission to sell oil on the global market Likely "service fees" for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz Iran keeps its proxies Israel pulls out of Lebanon and Hezbollah is preserved And the nuclear program returns to status quo ante. In short, we could have just given them everything they asked for before the war and come out way ahead, without blowing up any school children.

Al Arabiya says it has obtained a copy of the 14-point agreement between the US and Iran expected to be formally signed on Friday. If accurate, it aligns more closely with Iran's narrative than the US's regarding the deal. 1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles. 2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs. 3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. 4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement. 5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran. 6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days. 7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary. 8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article. 9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region. 10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like. 11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis. 12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement. 13. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles. 14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.

Chat gpt reckons conflict best case - 1 to 3 years. Worst case ongoing disruption and volatility. Will be interesting to see what happens.

So, what happened to the "Unconditional Surrender" Trump expected from this war?

Oh.. I LIKED your synopsis! What contradictions…

So: Agree to disagree?

I wonder if Kalshi has an over/under on how many White House staffers (and/or Middle Eastern officials, and/or Iranian government entities) got their wagers/investments down before the announcement.

VP said we are paying them the big money and Trump said they don’t even want nukes anymore. So it’s happening, we lost. But this fits into the entire Zeihan story. The US global order is over. The US navy has been defeated, à la The Russo-Japanese war, and technology and a defeated empire has birthed a new world. The US is leaving the Middle East and Europe. Asia is on it own, good luck Taiwan. I don’t like it and don’t think it’s a good thing but it’s happening. 4th turning and all.

Trump stated he required an "unconditional surrender" to end this war. Well, he's successfully got one!

Words fail me. Laughter, however, abounds. 😂

Aljazeira is reporting it - non stop. Do you guys get a visit from ICE if you watch Aljazeira

I'm not a betting man, but I'm willing to bet that by Friday something will happen and even that "deal" will fall.

If the Americans and Iranians are so far apart in what they're saying the deal is, I'm very curious about what exactly they're both going to actually sign.

Yet everyone is still buying the Kool-Aid. Stocks are up, oil is down, and not one blessed oil tanker has openly passed through the Straits. What a farce. I agree with you, Peter, that this is the very definition of a "Potemkin village."

The ceasefire both sides want for different reasons seems likely to last until the midterms, at least, but even then a resumption of kinetic attacks seems uncertain given that Trump has no appetite for (a) a prolonged fight or (b) the involvement of US ground forces. Those things seem unlikely to change so there's a good chance he'll simply declare "We won" repeatedly and focus attention elsewhere.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the Emiratis, who hate the Iranians more than anyone else, and who are starting to have the best drone and missile defenses in the world, courtesy of bankrolling the Ukrainians, just digging an approximately 70-90 km sea-level canal across the UAE between (say) Sharjah Emirate and Fujairah Emirate, hence entirely within UAE borders. It would shielded in part from Iranian attack by the mountainous Musandam Peninsula, an exclave of Oman. Panama Canal is a useful point of contrast and comparison. Unlike in Panama, no obstacle of tropical diseases. Like Panama, the passage's about the same length (Panama Canal being 81 km) and with a cut required in a low mountain pass. Culebra Cut in Panama, through the Continental Divide (originally 64 meters above sea level), was blasted in two stages, 5 meters of lowering by the French and then 47 more meters by the Americans, creating a passage 12 meters above sea level (plus 14 meters of water depth). I finally got better numbers for UAE's best passage: 172 meters above sea level, because that's the altitude of a historic fort, Al Bithnah, guarding the apex of Wadi Ham, the lowest route through the Hajar Mountains. It being the lowest crossing is why the E 89 highway runs along that wadi (seasonal watercourse). That is also why there are plans for a rail route that way. Digging a ditch from a 564' pass down to sea level and a bit lower would be ambitious, but I'll bet it could be done. Or very wide, tall, deep ship tunnel(s) through the Hajar Mountains (big enough for the largest tanker ships expected over the next 50 years, or there'd be no point). Or a canal with locks to reduce the cut required (bearing in mind that infrastructure for locks would be a military target). The entire rest of the most plausible routes are barely above sea level. Engineering difficulty? Ask the experts. The Emiratis have the motivation and gobs of money to do it. That much oil buys a lot of dynamite and work-crew time.

Unfortunately, because Trump lies endlessly and/or cannot tell fact from fiction, I'd tend to believe what Iran says more. That's a troubling thing to have to admit. I think it's obvious that Trump just desperately wants to get the strait open again. Going to be quite interesting to see the details of this MOU...

Trumpstein wants to end the Ukraine war too. He just can't get either party to accept his unconditional surrender.

Your on my farm in the SLV! Should try the Hot well water in Hooper Pool

Peter, greetings from Knockemstiff, Ohio. There you go again, telling us the glass is pretty much empty when our Chief purveyor of truth has communicated to the world that it is not only completely full but overflowing. All I really want to know is how to get on the A list of insiders who can trade the markets a day before he releases the news. One more thing. All these negative comments about no ambassadors or state department officials involved, service fees higher than the toll fee, Israel bound/israel not bound, etc. kind of ruins the face-smashing, head-bashing, bone-crushing, limb-breaking gladiatorial celebrations we were having on the White House front lawn. Stop being such a killjoy and interferring with our drunken bloodlust for CTE-inspired events. Thank you for your service.

I'll be surprised if this deal lasts an entire "Scaramucci".

I never thought I'd miss the days of drunk signal chat on war plans. At least the enemy would be on the same page 😵

Iran saying that the peace deal is contingent upon Israel pulling out of Lebanon pretty much guarantees the deal cannot work. Israel would likely collapse without this offensive war of annihilation. Hearing that the Iranians are utilizing psychiatrist and therapist who deal with senior citizens with diminished mental faculties, kind of shows why they’re able to dominate these talks. I bet in about five months Iran will have successfully put a wedge between the United States and Israel, which from the Iranian perspective that is the best way to ensure a lasting peace… Israel will likely become the North Korea of the Middle East

I have the under in the prediction markets cuz that’s where all the corrupt money is

I have never had data issues in the SLV. Enjoy Chama.

What annoys the hell out of me is that NO ONE else is reporting this. How stupid our media is is beyond me.

There are two excellent videos available over the past two days - one by Tucker Carlson with Trita Parsi and the other by Judge Napolitano with Alastair Crooke. Their understanding and explanation of the complexities are first rate. But in three minutes Peter cuts to the five aspects of the impasse. Perhaps someone is buying oil in the dip that will last till Friday.

It's all BS..., again. Why am I not surprised? This is what we get when we elect (I did not vote for this inept clown) a narcissistic child as president.

Trump had to get out before oil & gas reserves in various countries were exhausted and prices sky rocketed. Iran took damage, but they've won. And the winners are led by an even crazier bunch than the ones Trump killed. On the other hand, they are running out of fresh water, so they may find themselves with such severe problems at home that they have less room to exploit their victory. On a brighter note, it's clearer than ever that dependence on fossil fuel is an economic and national security threat. On the other, other hand, the Chinese will dominate the world market in EVs, and the hardware for solar, and wind power. Damn, but we really did lose.

How long do you think this "agreement" holds? What's the over/under- it holds for the rest of 2026 ... or ... for rest of June? For the week? No-Way. May🐝 but unlikely. (75% against) 50/50. 👁️ think that's about right ... but hoo👃 ...???... 🤷🏼

What percentage of enriched uranium would have taken to turn a drone into a dirty bomb?

2:08 ... 🐝Cawz- everybody who matters, finally realises just how mujovuh Calamitous 🌎FukUp this has binphrumduh start. Like ... GreatBigFat - "Oooops ... Ooh-SoSorry- Do'Over ... We needuh Do'Over ... Over here. Just- listen to OUR Spin-👨‍⚕️🧑‍⚕️ Cycle ... not therz. Everything wil🐝Fyyyyyn!" ... 😁 😐 Soooo- yeeah ... 😐 ... that's how this wun is going. Thanks Pete. And yes ... this wun better than yesterdaze ... Gjob ... 👏👏👏 ... 👍

And the Moron will claim it's better deal than Obama had, ha!

TroTUS was just talking at the G7 about the DEAL. I watched it for maybe 2 minutes, then, somehow he brought up the UFC fight and I turned it off.