China No Longer Controls North Korea || June 9, 2026
To simply call North Korea a Chinese puppet state doesn't capture the complexity of that relationship. To fully understand it, we must look back at three generations of the Kim dynasty, the current partnerships with other powers, and Kim Jong Un's aspirations.
However, the biggest takeaway from Xi's meeting in Pyongyang is that North Korea is becoming more of a geopolitical wild card. China and the rest of the region must now deal with greater uncertainty from a nuclear power right at the doorstep.
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Comments (34)
Outstanding episode.
Loved the style of this particular talk - I feel it exemplifies what appeal to me. Like many, I've had my habitual ear for the major events of geopolitics deafened in the last decade by some more disturbing local noises in goppolitics, so your 10 min backstory refresher on the Kim family soap and daggers opera repaints the blind spots obscured by various Trump/etc distractions, before a short update. Hopefully the (geo/gop) political threads won't get too entangled in coming weeks, they're messy enough when separate
KTTH
dammit, i was hoping no TDS in this video.
As always great work, wouldn't have subscribed if I wasn't a fan. You're right that Xi is sensitive to height, but he is not a short guy. Professionally, as a Taiwan-based "expert," I have spent countless hours watching his meetings, and my best guess is he is between 5'10" and 6' tall. Watching him walking alongside Trump, Ma Ying-jeou and Cheng Li-wun (all tall) he can't fake more than about 2 inches, which would make him at least 5'10". So, he's tall for China, average height for the US.
That was really interesting. I also learned a lot from this video. Thanks, Peter!
Peter totally forgot to mention Kim Jong Un's greatest diplomatic summit of all- his meeting with Dennis Rodman!
Illuminating. Thank you Peter
I've seen it quoted that if geopolitics was a game of poker, the Kim dude has done very well with a pair of twos. Looks like his pair of twos is going to carry him a whole lot further when backed up with ICBMs. Japan and South Korea will have to have their own nuclear kit wont they?
Considering they can no longer rely on the US nuclear umbrella, they absolutely must. The same applies for Europe. American isolationism will inevitably result in widespread nuclear proliferation.
Peter, remind me again, why we have sanctions on North Korea? If it was to discourage or stop their nuclear program, then they didn’t work so why don’t we just lift the sanctions; especially since they’ve now said that they don’t want to reunify they just want to stay North Korea?
1. Was Kim Il-sung Murdered by His Generals? No, there is no credible evidence supporting this. North Korea's first leader, Kim Il-sung, died on July 8, 1994, at the age of 82. The Official Cause: The regime announced he died of a sudden, massive heart attack (myocardial infarction) brought on by overwork and intense stress, complicated by long-term diabetes and high blood pressure. The Historical Context: At the time of his death, North Korea was facing severe crises, including the buildup to the devastating mid-90s famine and intense nuclear negotiations with the United States. Where the Rumors Come From: Because his death happened suddenly at a secluded mountain villa (the Hyangsan Residence) and the regime hid the news for over 30 hours to secure the political transition, rumors immediately swirled in South Korea and the West. Speculation ranged from a coup by disgruntled generals to a heated argument with his son, Kim Jong-il, that allegedly triggered the heart attack. However, U.S. and South Korean intelligence agencies have never found evidence of foul play or a military coup. 2. Did Kim Jong-il Die from Intentionally Poor Medical Care? This is an active rumor, but it remains unproven. Kim Jong-il (the son) died on December 17, 2011, officially from a heart attack while traveling on his personal train. The Medical Reality: Kim Jong-il had been in severely declining health for years. He suffered a major stroke in 2008, was a heavy smoker, drank heavily, and suffered from chronic diabetes and kidney disease. A fatal heart attack at age 69 was medically unsurprising. The "Neglect" Allegation: The specific rumor that top generals or officials intentionally delayed or botched his medical care stems from the brutal internal power dynamics of the regime. When his son, Kim Jong-un, took power, he immediately launched massive purges of the old military guard. Most notably, in 2013, he executed his own uncle, Jang Song-thaek, who was considered the co-regent of the country. Why the Rumor Persists: Defectors and some intelligence analysts have speculated that certain elite factions may have drug-tested or subtly mismanaged the aging leader's medical treatment to accelerate a transition of power, knowing he was already on borrowed time. Alternatively, it is rumored that medical staff were simply too terrified to administer aggressive treatments to a dictator, fearing execution if something went wrong. Ultimately, while the inner workings of Pyongyang are a black box, international historians and intelligence networks attribute both deaths to severe cardiovascular disease compounded by the extreme stress of running a totalitarian state.
Brian Jaggard: So-called "AI" (LLMs, sarcastically called "spicy autocorrect" by those of us in tech) are not a credible, reliable source, at any time, on any subject. And, if you're going to outsource your thinking to a software bot, and quote its extruded text onto Peter Zeihan's Patreon discussion, you should at least identify which software bot you delegated your job to.
I didn’t know that reunification was no longer the ultimate goal of North Korea. I learned something new today. 😮
Kim's lil' Sista' is even crazier.
I always thought Kim Il sung died from a heart attack do you have any data on the killing. I’m genuinely interested not doubting it by any means, I still remember my first international relations professor in my undergrad saying on the first day of class: “Nothing in politics is coincidental”, and later saying “the term conspiracy was picked up by governments to commonly relate facts against them with psychosis; aka tin foil hats”
This was a fascinating take on NK, especially the historical insights that you just won't get from history books. Thank you Peter!
But dr pippa says Xi went to NK bc he controls them and he now is making deals w Trump so he is telling the piglet to stop acting like a rouge state and do what he tells them
Anything that puts a wedge between Xi and Putin is a good thing. And if that thing is the totally useless and destitute NK, so much the better.
Still think your title of your next book should be "The Time of Three Mad Kings and the Bloody Princes". Looks like lil' Kim is jousting Bibi for chapter four.
If you add in the Gando/Joseonjok issues between China and North Korea... The relationship is actually a lot more fragile than most western analysts thinks. The CCP is very well aware of it hence they always want good relationships with the NK regime. Potential powder keg hotspot there.
Thanks for an interesting and entertaining piece. How about a bit more on the "new" government in NK and any succession potentials.
I found out why the UN women's fertility chart goes from a 45-degree downslope for most countries for the past quarter century to a flatline for the rest of the century at a 2.1 replacement rate until the year 2100. Sometimes this line rises from 1.2 and back to the 2.1 fertility rate. Normally you take a ruler and DRAW a line that follows the past 25-year drop to get the future rate, heh. The UN says this in its defense: The medium scenario of the United Nations is in line with the assumptions of continued progress towards gender equality and women’s empowerment and sustainable development, which means that as time progresses, individuals will be better able to realize their childbearing intentions and fertility levels will continue to decline in countries with high fertility and will eventually increase in countries with very low fertility.
The UN is completely off base IMO. The downward slope will continue as it has and global consumption practices will start to decline soon. I would love a deep dive by Peter on this very topic. Especially what are the real population totals of East Asia and Africa.
Great primer.
The DRPK isn't a true wild card yet. It will be if and when, as Peter has oft predicted, the Chinese system collapses. Regardless of whatever the political relationship between the two exists, 90% of NK's trade is with China. If western powers continue with their strategy of containment (how's that worked out so far?), they only make the DRPK a more volatile powder keg when the proverbial shit hits the fan.
Reunification with North Korea would devastate the South Korean economy. The East/West Germany merger is still costing the German economy huge amounts even after decades of effort and economic aid.
This is one of your best videos of the year. Thanks for the informative deep dive and insight!
Interesting talk and it is pretty consistent with what China has wanted us to believe. The difficulty is that for decades North Korea has done nothing in geopolitics which China didn't want them to do. China tries to maintain a plausible deniability factor but it remains implausible. There's a reason why before the current Kim met with Trump the first time, Kim Jong-un got in his train and went to China before the meeting - and it wasn't for a vacation or to tell China how things were going to go down. North Korea remains a vassal state of China and when they send ordnance or troops to Russia you can bet that it is ordered by China or at a minimum with China's blessing.
On reunification, I just went to Seoul, and their war museum and DMZ still play up reunification as a goal. My local friend tells me that is increasingly a relic of older generations.
Learned a lot new things about North Korea. Thanks peter.
Same.
I was in Viet Nam during the TroTUS - Kimmy summit. My favorite thing, universal adoption of TroTUS’ name, image and likeness in advertisements for everything from chicken sandwiches to deodorant and absolutely 0 royalties given to the man. I’d believe that that was his main take away. “This whole country profiting off of me being here and they don’t even pay me…”
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