Should Alberta Secede from Canada? || May 27, 2026
Apologies for the wind on this video, one of the downfalls of recording with a view...
Enough signatures have been gathered to force an independence referendum and vote in Alberta. Just a reminder that secession is legally possible in Canada following a successful referendum.
The economic case for independence centers on Alberta's youth and energy sector. With stronger demographics and a booming oil industry, some Albertans feel they disproportionately contribute without the respective influence in government decisions.
While some of this is true, an independent Alberta would still face major economic problems. We're talking rapid inflation and labor shortages, necessitating a trade agreement with Canada or integration with the U.S. Bottom line is that the grass ain't always greener on the other side.
Looking for something else?
The links below will take you to the Zeihan on Geopolitics YouTube page, each of our social media channels, info on how to purchase Peter Zeihan's books, our website, and more. Click the box to navigate to your desired page.
If there is still something else that you need, the helpful links tab below will direct you to anything you might need. This includes the Patreon support page, how to submit a question for Peter, and more.
Comments (65)
To everyone calling Wexit an impossibility. Take a look at the map of Europe from 1900 to 1918. One of they main powers in World War I (Austria-Hungary) ceased to exist as an empire in less than 20 years. I am sure that seemed impossible to the world then too. Point is never say never. The globe changes radically in a single lifetime. The Japanese are a close US ally a lifetime after internment and nuclear war. As is Germany, Italy and Argentina. While former allies Russia and China are now rivals if not enemies. Just sayin' .... its not unprecedented.
Unlistenable
Just the reference to Canadians and Albertans as if they are separate entities is a bit disingenuous. Albertans *are* Canadians, and even in this farcical exercise, which is a referendum about whether or not to have a real referendum some day, is set up to lose badly.
Probability of success secession is <10%, rather close to 1% (albeit you could be Jim Carey stating I still have a chance then). Getting by Treaty issues, and the economic risk from the rest of Canada letting go their money printer is 100% a no go. However there is a growing movement to remove the restrictions on Alberta's growth, which makes sense given the requirement of growing socialist dollars the rest of Canada requires. That always happens when there is a discourse between the haves & have nots!
This factually incorrect.Under current Canadian constitutional law, Alberta cannot unilaterally separate from Canada. Any lawful secession would require a constitutional amendment and negotiations involving the federal government and all provinces. This framework was established by the Supreme Court of Canada in the 1998 Quebec Secession Reference and subsequently codified in the Clarity Act. Practical Process for Alberta Secession 1. Provincial Referendum The Alberta government would first need to hold a referendum asking Albertans a clear and unambiguous question regarding independence. Example: "Do you agree that Alberta should cease to be part of Canada and become an independent state?" The referendum would need to produce a clear majority in favour of separation. The Supreme Court deliberately did not define whether 50% + 1 would be sufficient; the Clarity Act leaves that determination to political actors in Ottawa. 2. Federal Determination of Clarity Under the Clarity Act, the House of Commons would determine whether: • The referendum question was clear. • The majority in favour was sufficiently clear. If either is deemed unclear, the federal government would not negotiate secession. 3. Constitutional Negotiations If the referendum result is accepted as clear, negotiations would begin among: • Government of Canada • Alberta • All other provinces • Indigenous governments and organizations Issues would include: • Division of federal assets and liabilities • Federal debt allocation • Borders • Currency • Military assets • Pension obligations • Citizenship • Indigenous treaty rights • Federal lands and infrastructure • Water and resource agreements 4. Indigenous Treaty Negotiations This is likely one of the most significant hurdles. Many First Nations in Alberta signed Treaties 6, 7, and 8 with the Crown, not with Alberta. Courts have indicated that treaty rights would have to be addressed before any lawful separation could occur. Recent Alberta litigation has reinforced the importance of consultation and treaty obligations. 5. Constitutional Amendment Secession would require an amendment to the Constitution of Canada. Most constitutional scholars believe this would likely require the unanimous consent formula, meaning approval by: • House of Commons • Senate • Alberta • All other provincial legislatures Although the Supreme Court did not specify the exact amending formula, it confirmed that a constitutional amendment would be required. 6. Implementation Period If negotiations succeeded and constitutional amendments were passed, a transition period would likely occur over several years involving: • Establishment of Alberta citizenship laws • Creation of foreign affairs and defence institutions • Taxation transition • Trade agreements • Currency decisions • Border controls • Federal program transfers Major Obstacles Issue Difficulty Clear referendum majority High Federal approval of clarity High Constitutional amendment Very High Provincial consent Very High Indigenous treaty issues Very High Division of federal debt/assets High International recognition Moderate Could Alberta Simply Declare Independence? No, not lawfully under Canadian constitutional law. The Supreme Court specifically held that a province has no unilateral right to secede under either Canadian constitutional law or international law. A unilateral declaration of independence would likely trigger immediate constitutional and legal challenges and would not automatically be recognized internationally. Realistic Assessment From a legal perspective, Alberta secession is possible, but it would be among the most difficult constitutional processes in Canadian history. A successful referendum would only be the beginning; the larger challenge would be obtaining constitutional approval, resolving Indigenous treaty rights, and negotiating the terms of separation with Canada and the other provinces. The Supreme Court of Canada did not recognize a legal right for a province to unilaterally separate from Canada. What it did say in the Reference re Secession of Quebec was: 1. No unilateral right to secede under Canadian law. 2. No unilateral right to secede under international law (except in limited circumstances such as colonization or severe oppression). 3. However, if a province were to vote by a clear majority on a clear question in favor of independence, the federal government and the other provinces would have a constitutional duty to negotiate the terms of secession. The key distinction is: Question Supreme Court Answer Can Alberta leave Canada on its own? No Can Alberta hold a referendum on independence? Yes If Albertans vote clearly for independence, must Canada negotiate? Yes Must negotiations result in independence? No Could negotiations fail? Yes The Court stated: A clear majority vote in favor of secession would confer democratic legitimacy on the secession initiative and would oblige all parties to negotiate constitutional changes. What the Court did not say is that Canada must agree to Alberta's independence. Negotiations could ultimately fail if agreement cannot be reached on issues such as: • Constitutional amendments • Indigenous treaty rights • Federal debt allocation • Borders • Federal assets • Rights of minorities Many constitutional scholars interpret the decision as creating a political pathway to independence rather than a legal right to independence. For Alberta specifically, a likely sequence would be: 1. Alberta referendum. 2. Clear majority votes "Yes." 3. Federal government recognizes the result as clear. 4. Negotiations commence. 5. Constitutional amendment process. 6. If agreement is reached, Alberta becomes independent. The Supreme Court intentionally left open the possibility that a province could ultimately become independent through negotiation, while rejecting any right to simply declare independence and leave Canada unilaterally. The practical significance of the decision is that a strong democratic mandate for independence would be extremely difficult for Ottawa and the other provinces to ignore politically, even though the Constitution does not automatically grant separation.
I heard Texas can ‘technically’ succeed from the US by dissolving itself into 3 separate states.
... So how do you think the rest of Canada would vote to allow AB to leave and take all the money that flows from it?
It appears all the commenters are clearly more knowledgeable about this than Pete on this topic. I would add one more factual tidbit. The final step requires a constitutional amendment and that requires ALL provinces and Territories to vote with a majority approval.
Wow - no comment on unverified petition, theft of Alberta elector info nor verified, larger petition to stay in Canada that was ignored. Also, secession is not as easy as he says - given both the Clarity Act and indigenous treaties. He’s really not great on Canadian analysis
Furthermore to your point regarding the CA. The fact that any constitutional amendment requires ALL provinces & territories to vote on accept/reject the amendment.. does anyone think the rest of CA would let the golden goose get away and loose all those transfer payments. NFW... This whole exercise is a waste of time & money.
Every time Peter makes another sloppily researched, breezy (pun not intended) video about Canadian politics, and then a small posse of my northern neighbours patiently correct his foundational errors, I learn a bit more about Canadian history and what makes Canada tick. So, while I'm sympathetic to your irritation, I thank you for many enlightening details. (Greetings from Silicon Valley, ladies and gents. Keep standing strong and free.)
Peter got this one wrong: Texas is allowed, enshrined in its annexation documents, the ability to secede.
Although I know some folks in Alberta that would relish access to the US 2nd ammendment... I don't know anyone that would want the "pay to play" US Healthcare system. Though a lot of folks up there do complain about access to Healthcare. In general, I'm pretty sure the number of folks who really want to secede are a noticeable minority in the province. So it'll never happen (in my lifetime). Plus, Carney is making moves to expand the hydrocarbon industry in Alberta. Just signed a deal with Germany the other day to provide LNG via the BC terminals further next 20 years. And I think he's trying to make changes to bring in more investment to the sector. That's gotta be worth something.
Will dry Canada ever secede from wet Canada?
Why is this video so choppy
There is nothing in the US constitution specifically addressing secession. In fact, the 10th amendment reserves all unmentioned powers to the states or the individual. There is one SCOTUS decision re secession, Texas v White. It would be interesting to see a 10th amendment challenge. I believe that the 9th and 10th amendments should be used alot more to enhance individual liberty and reduce federal power.
One more point. Even if there was a referendum on whether Alberta should separate (which is not what the current referendum question is), and it passed, it does not NECESSARILY mean Alberta would separate. There would be innumerable issues to have to negotiate and it’s by no means clear that would be remotely likely.
Peter, your entire video is based on incorrect information. You really need to do more research on this before bringing out a video that will make my US relatives slaver over the idea that succession is in the works. If there actually was a referendum, and that is NOT what was put on the ballot. (It is a question to Albertans as to whether there should be a referendum.) Even if the vote eventally was in favor of secession, (highly unlikely) it is estimated that it would take between 10 and 20 years for Alberta to actually separate, and that's ONLY if the Indigenous stakeholders agree. Again unlikely. So I have to file this video under the deliberately sensationalist category, even though I normally really, really like your posts.
Oh, and the Premier is actually only doing this to force more concessions out of the Canadian government as Quebec did for years. Worked for Quebec. It won't work for Alberta.
No they're not. Literally fake news.
1. Immigration has trashed Canada. Youth unemployment is 15%, the overall unemployment is 7%. We now pay $1B a year for health care for asylum seekers, many of whom have had their asylum claims denied.
Immigration comes with a burden, for sure. It takes time and good will for people to assimilate, and any expansion of health care comes with an initial high burden as people who spent years without care get their needs addressed. Adding people to U.S. health care through Obamacare was initially more expensive than anticipated in the same way. At the same time, immigration has saved Canada from its demographic / birth rate trap, just as immigration has protected the U.S. Without it, the Canadian health care system would be near collapse because of aging and the whole country would be headed toward a deflationary spiral. Increasingly poor, grumpy, anti-immigrant, less productive Old People would have run the country into the ground. There certainly does seem to be some threshold where assimilation friction overrides national self-interest, and Canada might be there. I question a bit the extent to which that is truly Canadian in character or whether they're importing U.S. anti-immigrant / No-Nothing / MAGA notions. I will say, from my own experience, that attending Catholic mass in growing places like Miltion, ON over the years has been a delightful experience in diversity, welcoming many new young people and families. Yes, it changes the character, but the new character is younger and more vibrant!
Peter, please buy what's called a "Dead Cat". It costs 10$ and it will prevent these sound issues you have all the time.
Please, use the $48.01 I pay you annually to buy yourself one of those portable youtuber microphones.
Just to say that I'd urge anyone (anywhere) facing a similar referendum to think this through very hard and then act very seriously. The British experience was that "unhinged" democracy may end up in a really asinine decision. None of the two major Swedish referendums of my lifetime (nuclear energy and joining EMU) went "according to plan". That grass on the other side of the fence isn't always as green as it seems. Best wishes to Alberta & 🇨🇦 for a sensible outcome.
Hi Peter. Just one thing you should factor into your analysis. Alberta was created out of land acquired by Canada (the Crown) via treaties with the nations in the area. Its the "numbered treaties". They cover much of Canada. Alberta would have to negotiate replacement treaties with all the affected nations or the Supreme Court would block succession. In fact, the citizens initiative of signatures got thrown out for this very reason; they had no consultation with the local First Nations about their treaty rights. Quebec was it's own colony long before Confederation so it is far "easier" for them to separate; Alberta would have to deal with the treaties since that is how the province came into existence. The seperatists will just talk over you or shut you down if you even attempt to dialogue with them about that. Also, the cost of setting up a new nation from borders, intelligence agencies, policing, military, etc would be well beyond their current means. Raising money would be hard for a new nation without getting tons of international aid. Ultimately, they would be screwed even more than you have discussed. Large energy companies in Alberta are already holding off on investment decisions while this process is going on as a separation would be a very painful process and chase a lot of capital away.
Ever notice that every time a province is so pissed off that it wants to separate, there is a jackass Prime Minister named Trudeau that instigated the discontent?
American influencers are making propaganda videos in favor of this recession movement. Caleb Hammer is one example. Trump admin is also actively fomenting secessionist movements in Canada. This is out of the Russian playbook.
I do not agree that being landlocked is a significant constraint. For example, a bonded free trade zone could be established in Bellingham, with bonded trucking routes running directly from Washington State to the Blackfoot Nation at Alberta’s southern border. The logistics of importing and exporting goods into Alberta would remain comparable under such a framework. Alberta could also establish its own customs and excise zone, while maintaining a form of special trading status with the United States, similar to the historical arrangement between Hong Kong and China. Additionally, Alberta could implement a monetary system that supports multiple currencies, such as an Alberta dollar, the U.S. dollar, and the Canadian dollar, similar to Hong Kong’s multi-currency environment
Hahaha. It's amusing to think that Albertans believe that they're going to get some sort of special trade status with the U.S. The sort of arrangement you're talking about is extremely unlikely (look at post-Brexit Britain, still with no special trade deal with the U.S.). The Trump administration (and honestly, most future administrations) would demand statehood. Once Alberta is in the U.S., there is no leaving. They become just another Montana with much less influence over U.S. policies than they had over Canadian policies. Alberta on its own with relatively PO'd Canadian neighbors and the U.S. to the south is done. At best it becomes something like Kazakhstan or Bolivia, at worst it becomes South Sudan or Turkmenistan. The Hong Kong example isn't relevant; Hong Kong was an international trading hub for centuries, with sea access to many regional players and the world and the requisite multi-currency banking. That's not Alberta
As a born & bred and resident of Alberta my entire life, you're not quite right Peter in your analysis. Because our premier did not consult with first nations who live on Treaty lands that were signed with Queen Victoria the court threw out her signatures and said you MUST consult with the first nations. Daniel Smith, our premier, of course immediately appealed within a day and said that the court has to rule on what it means “to consult”. Thus we‘re having a referendum on a referendum in October. The secessionists have not thought through all the issues the landlocked Alberta would mean—what currency? What police force (no more RCMP)? What about defence? What about trade deals? What about healthcare? Do we go alone as a landlocked country, or do we join the United States? It's all fine and good to say let's succeed, but then what happens on day two?? The majority of Albertans are clearly against leaving Canada. We'll see where this goes. Danielle Smith is hell bent on push pushing for this referendum, but she said she will vote against it. WTF, she is such a wishy-washy leader.
I remember when James Cameron supported the Brexit referendum with the pledge to vote against it. How'd that work out? It seems like the 10% threshold is too low for forcing a referendum. Too high a probability that fringe crazies can force a vote. An "independent" Alberta will be forced to become a U.S. state within a decade, just the way "independent" Texas was back in the 1800s. Makes one wonder to what extent this is the Trump administration with the Russians working to manipulate gullible Albertans.
We can add more stars to the flag, as needed.
Hater. Alberta will be fine on its own
The First Nations have an effective veto on succession in Canada because their treaties are with the Crown (Federal Government) not independent provinces. No independence vote can override their sovereignty. They also don’t want independence from Canada and control vast swaths of the province. Ditto in Quebec. That’s why no one takes independence movements seriously here: they are as close to impossible to do as you can get because of the FN.
What's the economic situation of the Albertan First Nations, and to what extent do they have cross-border affinity with U.S. tribes? In other words, how can they be manipulated or bribed by cultural connections and resources? I agree, these independence movements are goofy. But occasionally the stars align (ex. Brexit), to the detriment of all.
I currently live in alberta, and on this topic, the most opinionated people tend to be the most uninformed. so many people claim to "Know" what is and isnt legal, so many people claim to "Know" if its a good idea or not. Noone has any idea what the fuck they are talking about, and the people who actually understand the topic, tend to say the least, because they understand just how truly complex it is. But hey, being an extremist and painting everyone into one box or another is just oh so convenient, right?
We know all about the box painting in the US. :-)
Time to get that new DJI mic.
You'd like to think that anyone with an IQ above 90 would learn from us Brits and our self-sabotaging experiment with Brexit.
THe Brits were brilliant, the EU si going to the Drain...
Wierder things have happened!
I feel like it would take a long time to build the necessary infrastructure to move Alberta oil and grain through Montana and into the rest of the United States… I also don’t think that the United States would want Alberta.
Why would the US not want Alberta? Also, I don't think you know where Alberta trades most of its grain and oil. This infrastructure already exists.
The US Constitution does not explicitly forbid secession. In fact, the 10th amendment may indirectly reserve that right to the states. While decisive, war doesn't replace text.
"I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic, for which it stands, one nation, under God, INDIVISIBLE, with liberty and justice for all." The 10th Amendment does not shelter from Article 4 or Article 6. Fringe notions aside, this is settled law in the United States. War simply enforced text, and re-iterated that enforcement with things like the 14th Amendment.
This is MAGA stretching it's tentacles into Alberta. MAGA lives in it's own echo chamber, unaware that the US is losing it's democracy, it's middle class and it's vitality for innovation, it's health institutions, the independence of the judiciary, widespread corruption at the presidential level, independence of it's educational institutions, the currency and preparedness of its military etc. And Americans are sitting on their fat asses like zombies watching their 'shining beacon on a hill' fade away. I am talking about Americans like you Peter Zeihan.
Yup. It really is like a frog in pot of water progressively getting hotter. People just can't bring themselves to fully come to grips with the creature that Trump really is. They cling to this fiction that he is a reasonable person and that there's no way the American electorate could be so senseless and stupid to elect this outrageous thug twice.
What about native land promised by England to stay native
Rarely a fan of splitting. Stronger together IMHO.
Good lord, why would Albertans want to enter into the for profit healthcare system of the United States? Also, what would British Columbia do being cut off from the rest of the country? Seems like the only party that would benefit from this would be US corporations.
As a Canadian who moved to the U.S., with regard to healthcare, I would answer: so they can enjoy the higher quality of health care and service. Over the last 44 years I have been able to directly compare the experiences of my relatives in Canada and myself and my relatives in the U.S. and, uniformly, the level of service and quality of outcome is superior in the U.S. Sometimes, sadly, vastly so. Yes, the cost structure for health in the U.S. is ridiculous and needs reform, probably through deregulation as the regulations are structured to protect the insurance industry which, in turn, drives up costs.
Your economic analysis is correct, your understanding of Canadian province/country legal sessession provisions are wrong, as are the politics. Less than 30% of Albertans want to leave Canada.
Additional note for Peter... nice sound quality > nice background scenery
Peter, me thinks you need to do a bit more "homework" on your analysis of this situation... See John's comment please.
Oof, factually incorrect analysis. First, we don't know if they got the required threshold of signatures (which was not 10%) because the court struck down the petition as unconstitutional. There is reason to believe that the signature numbers were illegally padded. Second, as someone else said, this is not a referendum to separate, but a referendum on whether there should someday be a referendum. Third, even if this WAS the referendum (as theoretically could happen someday), Alberta doesn't get the right to just leave. It only begins negotiations with the federal government. Ultimately, the Province has a duty to consult with the First Nations, who hold treaty rights over most of Alberta land. A better analysis from a legal standpoint is that it is highly unlikely (some say impossible) that Alberta will ever be able to legally secede from the nation of Canada. That said, this summer's campaign will indeed be wild.
A provincial referendum does not legally trigger independence. IF it should pass it only requires good-faith negotiations with the federal government. It would seem, however, Albertans have some legitimate gripes about equity. Maybe the Federal government should find a way to make it right with them. Regardless, a future as an independent country or USA state seems quite ridiculous.
Who needs audio anyways
Just to be clear: they're not having an independence referendum. They're having a referendum to have a later referendum. The issue is they can't pass the Clarity Act which is why the UCP are weaseling out with this.
I think people behind the push don’t necessarily want independence, rather the US statehood, they already had meetings in the White House. Alberta joining the US would add about 165 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, 4.5 million barrels/day of production, increasing US oil output by 35% For Alberta, joining the US could mean full access to the largest economy, removal of cross-border trade frictions, deeper integration with US pipelines and refineries, use of the US dollar, and potentially larger investment inflows into its energy sector. Also no more Canadian green leftists stopping investments, could even be a good thing for Europe as more energy supply is needed.
Yeah but they would have to call themselves American. That cancels all your rainbows and unicorns right there.
Ha. If they join the U.S. they won’t be able to “un join” - & no health care here…
Peter having bad audio is as sure as taxes…
Idk who would want to join a country that actively is taking part in the illicit trade of DONKEY COLLAGEN. #SaveTheDonks
Good thing you added subtitles