Is Now a Good Time for China to Invade Taiwan? || May 14, 2026
With the U.S. distracted (and depleted) by the Iran War, should China seize this opportunity to invade Taiwan?
While it appears the stars are aligning for China to make its move on Taiwan, there's one big issue: energy. Sure, the U.S. military is stretched thin, munitions stocks are running low, and power projection in Asia is weakened, but China still needs the oil to make it all happen. Since China imports most of its oil, primarily from the Gulf, the U.S. could cut off energy imports at any time.
While China may have a short-term military advantage, the strategic vulnerability and risk of losing imported energy just isn't worth it.
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Comments (44)
Trump is the only one responsible for starting this stupid Iran war. Nobody else in the USA wants it. After Trump is voted out let’s ship his butt to Iran and let them decide what to do with their golden boy.
IMO, nukes are only useful to send the "Stop doing that!" message. Were the US to blockade oil flows to China it is reasonable to assume the Chinese would quickly send the above mentioned message. And as General Mattis would ask: "What's next"?
Been listening for years. I thought you said China has slipped into a demographic death spiral and would be done as by 2030-2035. Has anything changed, except your TDS?
I do not believe China has any advantage in taking Taiwan. Too useful for trade. Yes the US is now out of air defence interceptors but they were old and pretty poor compared to European missiles. Better to design new ones than spend the next decade making more expensive and barely capable patriots.
As someone mentioned in the other thread, it is the start of monsoon season. Having been stationed there in the SCS , I can definitely say not a great season to soak through. Only early summer is a short shot, but as those typhoons kick in later, no bueno on the campaign. Just review how FADM Halsey lost part of his fleet.
The real question is: Why is China so freaking obsessed with Taiwan? Formosa/Taiwan hasn't had anything to do with China for centuries.
(5/15/2026) Yup, and that is what our glorious leader just did. He threw Taiwan under the bus just like Xi wanted him to. Trump will do whatever benefits Putin and Xi, regardless of how it damages our country and our allies. Is this pure incompetence or deliberate treason?
Peter, could you please do a video on the likelihood and challenges of China building up more oil and gas pipelines directly with Russia reducing the importance of imports from the Strait of Hormuz? How long would such infrastructure take to build?
No.
So what happens when China bribes Trump and every billionaire that accompanied him on that recent trip? All it would take would be: 1. everyone on that trip is a complete idiot with no understanding of the fact that Taiwan's chips are irreplaceable; 2. China offers them all a massive, MASSIVE bribe; and 3. China tricks them into thinking that its currency will be a safe harbor for their wealth.
War is expensive - even if there is no opposition at all. China is not stupid ... why go to war when they can simply (and peaceably), "buy" everything they need from Siberia and the Russian Far East - at fire-sale prices? Just as they currently do for Russian oil etc. Over time, say two to five years, establish Chinese owned companies to do any work necessary - Chinese engineers to "manage" the oil extraction, or the extraction of ores or timber. They then gain full control of what they need. No war, no need to massive financially strain the economy and still gain full control of the assets. In 100 years (a mere blip in Chinese thought), it will evolve into full Chinese territorial presence.
Maybe the Beijing will just carry on playing all sides to their advantage: support the Iranians where they can (supply missiles etc). When America is forced to invade Iran ( probably will need to in order to achieve anything), will the Laural and Hardie show - Putin and Lavrov ("thats another fine mess you got us in to Ollie") join the party and openly support Iran. Tehran is very close to Russia across the Caspian sea. This is even better for Beijing. They can give Tehran an open check in lieu of future oil and let them buy the gear of Russia. They have all to play for and most of the cards. Happy Days.
It won't be a surprise attack as we would see PLA forces amassing along the PRC coast and the strait which are all in range of Taiwan's locally made missiles and drones. In the first sign of imminent attack Japan would definitely get involved even if the US doesn't which drags the entire region into conflagration. If Japan gets attacked by the PRC, the US would be treaty obligated to defend Japan unless Trump decides to abandon/aborogate all US treaty obligations with Japan and possibly South Korea, the Philippines and Australia (extremely stupid move but who knows what he is thinking).
If you think Trump will honor a treaty obligation, you haven't been paying attention.
I've long thought Xi would move against Taiwan around when he said he would but now I'm doubting that idea. Hopefully Xi is looking at the cost of Putin's adventurism against an, on paper, much weaker but technically savvy neighbor and now Trump's disastrous move against a failing state in a key geographic location; neither targets having a significant navy and it gives Xi some pause. Especially with the advent of drones throwing old military calculations out the window. This along with China's much greater reliance on the old global free trade system and now being able to say, "I told you should rely on us, not the US", he's hopefully going to pass on Taiwan for a few years. Then again, being an all powerful autocrat causes brain rot and Xi may be its next victim. Hopefully he'll show wisdom that Putin and Trump completely lack.
USA is going to trade Taiwan for not getting involved in USA taking Canada, Cuba and further attacking Iran.
Why does China care what we do with Canada?
Forget Taiwan. Is now a good time for the US to invade Cuba?
They are going for Taiwan next year and our navy will still be stuck in the Strait playing school-crossing-guard. Our navy pinned down and our stockpiles expended. Demographically, they only get weaker as time goes by. They will certainly NEVER have a better chance. We can cut off their crude. China can cut off the West's chips. How is our AI economy going to like that?
Cutting off our chips as we cut off their oil is an interesting game.
Could swear I heard in an earlier video that China got 30% of its oil through the straight of Hormuz...?
According to this US government report, 90% of Iran's oil exports go to China. However, that only represents about 12% of China's total crude oil imports. https://www.uscc.gov/research/china-iran-fact-sheet-short-primer-relationship
You may need to reassess your level of Trump stupid. The read out of the Summit is that Trump ceded Taiwan to Xi
War just seems like a costly and wasteful process against middle powers these days. Russia and the U.S. are not fairing well and I doubt China would be able to do much better. China could possibly win but they’d destroy anything of value in Taiwan.
Should China move on Taiwan, we are out of position, as you commented, and 8,000 miles away, perhaps short on bullets. Other than TSMC, what strategic value does Taiwan provide for us? Wouldn't a better strategy be to invest the billions (needed to defend it) rather in building more plant (in addition to the one underway in Arizona) and moving its personnel, company and related enterprises to the US? Other than TSMC, what does Taiwan offer to the West other than a permanent headache? After all, it was founded by Chiang (the worst leader in either side in WWII) as a refuge from Mao's boys. He treated the native Taiwanese terribly upon arrival. It sure seems geographically and culturally to be in China's orbit historically. Why stumble into a war over terrain we cannot defend and have no historical or need for other than TSMC? Diverting the same funds to move it to CONUS would be a more wise defense, seems to me.
Taiwan is not about TMSC. Yes, chips are important to the US economy, but it's a side issue. TSMC would be destroyed on day 1 of an invasion. The core reason why Taiwan is important is because it's a central part of the First Island Chain. The 'fence' that keeps China from travelling into the Pacific and following imperialistic ambitions. The US defence strategy is clear that the First Island Chain is top priority behind the immediate area around the US.
Trump wants a G-2 (China & US) It wouldn't surprise me if Cheeto proposes a split of Taiwan. He adores Ji and Putin and wants to be a dictator no matter the cost to the world.
Or they start getting more of their oil from say Russia
I think Peter Z. is correct. Trump would trade Taiwan in a heartbeat if that gives him what he wants. However, Xi is dealing with a habitual liar so I suspect he might rather see the US and Russia continue to weaken themselves.
How is Chine going to get their troops to Taiwan by boat in an Ukraine type naval battle? Answer: They can’t. It would be like shooting fish in a barrel for Taiwan.
They have a large population and more comfort with spending human lives in the pursuit of imperial glory.
Now is a good time for all the reasons mentioned. However, oil is not the apocalyptic factor it was made out to be. Oil is only 20% of China's energy mix. With oil reserves and (Russian supply aside) the decommissioned coal capacity brought back online... Threatening China's oil supply just wouldn't have the impact that it would have previously.
Much more oil would be needed in any military action against Taiwanby China. Coal and electricity are not much use for that purpose, and China is using up much of its petroleum reserves already.
I’m sure Japan, The UK, Australia, India, France, Vietnam, South Korea, and The Philippines wouldn’t do anything either. Sure.
It bothers me that I was just thinking about this yesterday.
China will be stoped by drone attacks if they attempt ground assault. Also, I doubt China wants to level Taiwan. They probably want it to be intact as possible afterwards.
I'm not sure Trump remembers much of anything anchored in reality at this point....He is exceptionally vulnerable when greeted with pomp and excessive flattery. Wouldn't surprise me if he and his Billionaire Boys give China the whole of Taiwan, then conveniently forget their deal a month from now. I think our government is currently so unreliable and capricious that Xi will think twice about invading, even though it looks like a fine opportunity on the surface.
Splitting it's resources in half maybe?
C’mon Peter, don’t scare us like that. Nobody’s that stupid. … Oh wait…
It’s not gonna take 10 years to rebuilt U.S ammo stocks.
So nine years is fine is a better estimate for you? How many years would you guess?
This morning, on the Bloomies, they brought up how the Heg is over there at the Banquet right now, and they referred to him as the Secretary of Defense. Not war. In this context. Which seems to me like a Beta Male, non-warrior ethos thing to identify, but hey, can’t be the Alpha when you’re failing at using chop sticks cause the Baiju smacks. It also kinda tracks with the other title change that allows Rubio to not being detained for being banned from China. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/05/14/officially-marco-rubio-is-still-banned-china-so-how-is-he-beijing/
As long as Trump remembers that the current AI boom requires a functioning TSMC, he won’t be willing write off Taiwan.
But split it?