This Ain't Your Father's Tanker War || May 6, 2026
No, the U.S. can’t escort tankers in the Persian Gulf today as it did during the 1980s Tanker War.
Back in the 80s, the U.S. swooped into a regional conflict where attacks on shipping were limited, and the Strait remained open. Neither of those is the case with the Iran War. The U.S. Navy has fewer ships today than it did back then, so widespread protection is a much different conversation (especially with thousands of commercial ships trapped). And of course, modern warfare has evolved. We're dealing with drones and missiles that leave the U.S. Navy much more vulnerable.
You add all that up, and we’re looking at a very different Tanker War than the one your daddy saw in the 80s. So, the only path forward is likely a political one.
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Comments (32)
That's why pouring $1.5 trillion into weapons that would be obsolete in 3 years is stupid.
They are willing to do an awful lot in order to generate nuclear capability. Doesn't seem like the best idea for the world to let that happen, really. All things considered . . . really, not the best idea.
Why do you think so?
We can totally do escorts--just a matter of our pain threshold
News story recently claims that TrumpCo had a telephone call with MBS about the escort operation, where MBS cleared the air by pointing out to TrumpCo that, actually, he_does_ need allies, and that Saudi _basing_ for the US military would be immediately cut off unless the US de-escalated and got serious about negotiating. Trump immediately TACO'ed and put the escort operation on hold. This has all been, among other things, a ruinously expensive set of lessons for Mr. Trump about how the world actually works.
It’s been a pretty painful and expensive lesson for the Iranian, as well.
L
I'm retired, and I can't afford to upgrade to the big bucks. Please stop putting these teaser videos on. It's terrible. It's really mean to those of us who respect and appreciate peter's opinion.
There is no other way than ''Boots on the ground'' hit and run, targets well chosen...we will go there.
The issue isn't defense spending. The issue is spending on overly complicated (and thus xpensive) weapons systems. They are lovely until you run out of them. And xpensive means fewer bangs even if they are more precise. Trouble is, war requires lots n' lots of bangs. This has been obvious to me, a common schmuck, for decades. Why has it not been obvious to the Pentagon?
With both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea becoming dangerous/closed simultaneously Saudi oil would have nowhere to go. This is why some are predicting $150-200 dollar a barrel for gas/diesel. Preliminary investigation suspect pirates and Houthi forces are now coordinating to highjack Red Sea shipping.
Interestingly enough, I literally just read that the French have a carrier in the Red Sea.
David Woo has been getting some traction amongst some...he's a Wall Street guy, heavily followed by Hedge Funds. Much of what they spit out in regards to Iran analysis looks to me like Game Theory Strategy (for which I'm very skeptical on any "strategy" at at all) here's a blurb from his latest... The only point of the escort operation was to trigger a response from Iran and thereby allow a test of the defenses set up by Ukraine. This makes it just a prelude to the next phase of the offensive, which Rubio just said is over. Is Trump’s talk of diplomatic progress just another part of a deception? If so we’ll find out with Iran denials today.
Armed human war is becoming a thing of the past. The troops on standby cannot be beached without our navy boat being attacked by drones. Trump's war is at a stalemate. He needs to call back his military. Like ukraine, it's easier to defend than attack.
Today the news is there's an agreement to end the war, so says Trump, but Iran is saying it must be fair. Frankly, I think Iran is scamming as usual and won't agree to anything except it's maximalist demands. But, today's deal includes: Both will lift their respective blockades, reopening the strait to all traffic. Iran will commit to a 15-year moratorium on uranium enrichment in exchange for the U.S. lifting sanctions and releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds. Signing the memo would trigger a 30-day period for both sides to hash out more detailed technical and military agreements. Why would Iran agree to this deal, when they have not agreed to any other? This is a push come shove moment. IF Iran blows off the offer, and likely they will, then the USA can unleash the dogs again, go home, or twiddle. My guess is more twiddling ahead.
I think a lot of the people who are starting to become bearish on the US capacity to go to war with China might wanna keep in mind We have these one way attack drones as well and there are a lot of choke points The US could hold and if this Trump war is anything to go off of, a determined defensive power is really hard to over come. The US is attempting to maintain global shipping lanes right now, imagine if it tried to disrupt them intentionally
Taiwan being a center of chip production might be able to create a vast Drone Defense System using tens of thousands of prepositioned drones to be unleashed at various stages of any Chinese advance. I would guess even relatively small unobtrusive buildings could hold hundreds if not thousands of drones. Meanwhille, operators could work from hardened bunkers hidden amongst urban clutter. But,...maybe not.
Given that prolonged sanctions haven’t produced regime change in cases like Cuba, what evidence supports or challenges the assumption that a blockade of Iranian ports would lead to regime change? And if this becomes long and protracted—what are the exit criteria, and what’s the off‑ramp if regime change doesn’t happen?
Does that mean any country today can block access or demand fees for any waterway they say is theirs? Like, can Spain do it for the Mediterranean at the Strait of Gibraltar, or Denmark at the Baltic straits (Øresund etc.)? Turkey at the Bosporus and Dardanelles, or Malaysia / Indonesia at the Strait of Malacca?
For a country that has outspent the military budgets of the next 9 countries COMBINED for decades, I'm not feeling real good about that spend in light of what the war is exposing for the US military. And the DOD is requesting $1.5T for the next fiscal year, up 60% over the current year...I hope someone is ready to say "no" to that and reevaluate our military strategic thinking before pouring more taxpayer dollars down the drain.
Warfare has changed dramatically in the last 40 years. Drones, cheap cruise missiles, etc have changed the game. Our spending should be truly about making sure a war with China never happens. Think this is bad? Imagine a war with China. Catastrophic economically
How far away is laser technology to address the drone onslaught?
To which the next question is, "will laser vs. laser become the next stage of war."
So remember, you've been told for the last 40 years that we can't eliminate poverty and have universal healthcare because we needed the "greatest military the world has ever seen"; only to end up with one that is less dynamic and effective than it was then. Meanwhile, our economic output has grown exponentially since then. When are people going to start asking themselves where all the money has gone?
GDP spending on military has been drastically reduced since the end of the Cold War.
I might need a bit more context but it sounds to me like you’re saying Donald Trump is a complete fukwit and destroying American power, and trying to ruin global economies.
It’s true, the bankrupt casino model gone global.
So, no easy, short term solution.
IF the choice in this situation is to stand and fight or cut and run, based on the cards on the table, clearly the smart choice would be to run away very fast and not look back. America doesn't have the right cards to play this game anymore. The third choice is to muddle along and fake it. That seems to be the current game in my opinion, the slow lose.
Vietnam, redux.
It’s gonna be ok everyone! We have… A PAGE! I love Page. Just one Page. Beautiful Page. American Page. Great Page. 👁️ ❤️ 📄
Behold the small ugly agreement