Welcome to Captain Phillips' Nightmare || May 5, 2026
Captain Phillips is shaking in his boots because piracy is returning to the high seas, specifically in the Red Sea and off the Horn of Africa. Somali pirates have already attacked multiple ships.
With a large share of the global oil supply offline, the U.S. preoccupied with the Iran war, and nobody else able to step in, I would expect things to worsen quickly. The Red Sea will quickly become a no-go zone.
This would disrupt a major global shipping route and force vessels to reroute (which isn't an option for everyone). So, the already strained global system will face even more shortages and disruptions.
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Comments (39)
C
aren't the French sending a fleet down the Red Sea--I think they can handle pirates
I've been expecting this since orange man took office
An innocent question . . . the US is oil independent, yes? Why are US oil prices rising in response to the Iran War? We don't buy that oil, or any oil; we sell it. I can't be the only one confused.
Trump said this last Fri in regard to the capture of Iranian ship: ""We took over the ship, we took over the cargo, we took over the oil. It's a very profitable business. We're sort of like pirates, but we are not playing games."
I can no longer access the videos though my laptop. You don't appear to have a help link. Please advise. Thanks Terry
It's not easy to find, but help for Patreon is found here: https://support.patreon.com/hc/en-us I think that will eventually get to the Zeihan group. It did for me once.
And as a cherry on top: Israel and Turkey now becoming hostile towards each other (due to Gaza and the US Iran war) with the US stuck in the middle. 🤷♀️🤷🤷♂️
Peter, for Saudi oil exports out of Yanbu, wouldn't the Saudis, possibly with Egyptian support, be incentivized to provide naval escorts for buyer's and their own tankers transiting back and forth through the Suez? Also, I doubt Somali pirates operate much in the Red Sea. However, cargo ship and tankers that transit the Gulf of Aden and down the eastern coast of Africa are surely at greater risk of pirate attacks.
Why do you believe that the 10-15% of the word oil flowing through the straights will not come back? Once there is a deal, or Irans' ability to control the straights has been destroyed, It will come back. Somali pirates??....in time,Trump will crush them as well.
Geesus, 2026 is already bad? Are you telling me 2027 will be worse?!?
Isn’t it fair to think a few backwater contractors with guns can fight off some pirates with motor boats and ak47’s? Genuine question
Arrrrrrrrrr
Now that’s the doom and gloom I pay for !
Minnesota has its own Somali pirates. Lol
Seems like the pirates will also need gas for their operations
Peter smiles about this the same way a meteorologist smirks when he predicts 4 feet of snow.
Life was better when we didn’t have everything at anytime. It took so long to get everything anytime and only a few years to see the end of everything anytime end.
Ex Minneapolis residents I guess. Piracy is the main GDP of Somalia. No Medicaid for them to scam there.
There was some talk about Chinese fishing vessels "raping the seas" off Somalia, making fishing unprofitable and piracy attractive. OTOH, using inside trading to make huge profits from the commodity markets seems safer.
Boogeyman du jour.
I'd guess that Somali pirates definitely have crypto accounts 😁 That seems very on-brand for all parties involved
Arrr, Peter, why will it all not be coming back? Where will all the oil and want not be goin, arrr? Will there be shenanigans with Boots on the shore, arrr?
Hhmm, so how far can the Somali pirates reach, and how imaginative are they? Be interesting to see if non state actors "pickup the slack" when ship owners can't get satisfaction.
What´s stopping commercial ships for arming themselves with the means to repel the pirates? Is it legal for them to use lethal force to defend themselves?
Nothing is stopping them and it's legal. A number are already doing it.
Yes, but. One of the three boats captured was a Somali fishing boat, now used as a command ship. One had a load of cement, the other 18k bbls of oil: No big deal relatively speaking. Seems to me, if you want to travel in that part of the world, you need to pay, one way or another, for protection. Why should it be free from Uncle Sam? These days two guys with a supply of cheap drones could probably do a credible job of defending the larger ships. One guy with a .50 cal MG could do the job for smaller boats. Oerlikon makes some 20mm cannons that would be effective, although pricey.
Can't wait for tom hanks to make a sequel
How about his company fires him and then he leads the pirates ?
Doesn’t Turkey have a maritime defense and economic deal with Somalia that grants them control over licensing and security in Somalia's EEZ? How come there are pirates? Last time I checked Turkey had a huge military base with drones, F16s and naval assets. Are they just protecting their own commercial and drilling ships? 😃
With the current administration I would not be surprised if they sent an A-10 gunship on patrol to sweep up any pirate ships. Once or twice should do it.
But, why? It's not my problem.
So when does the works economies need stock mkts reflect this
Captain Phillips sequel. But Phillips will be a transgender who transitioned and the movie will virtue signal about how pirating disproportionality affects the black and brown communities in the U.S
lol, this was a good one.
Are there any mercenary *naval* forces out there? Sounds like an opportunity for PMC’s, if they can find a way to float escort vessels. You know, so things can be even worse than they are, now.
Could hire Somali pirates to provide security. Although, some might call that a protection racket.
Idk, I mean Captain Phillips survived and Tom Hanks portrayed him in a movie so.. I think he made out better than most victims of Puntland’s coast guard or whatever it is
I mean we never even found out why all these Somalis got like radiation poisoning: https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/09/mystery_surrounds_hi.php