Say Goodbye to the Global Order || Apr. 21, 2026
Some days, the world takes a small step towards a global reshuffling. Other days, it's more of a leap. Looks like we're having one of those "leap" days.
Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have cut exports by over 1 million barrels/day, and now production is being reduced as well. Since Russia lacks storage and pipeline flexibility, we are now looking at a lasting decline in output.
Over in Iran, the U.S. naval blockade strategy has expanded beyond the Persian Gulf with the Americans seizing an Iranian supertanker near Sri Lanka. The United States is no longer guaranteeing maritime naval security, but is instead an active participant in breaking the system down. Globalization is dying, and anyone or anything that relies upon a global supply chain will fall with it.
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Comments (57)
I’m pleased to see this book is a available on audible!
Never knew this guy wrote books
My sister is telling me that the Iranians were "2 weeks away from a nuclear weapon" when we attacked Iran. Are there any credible sources for this rumor?
Bibi has been saying that since the Clinton days I think it was - I saw the video...
“Welcome to Good Burger, home of the Good Burger, can I take your global order? Woah. Hey, I’m a dude, he’s a dude…”
I am wholehearted worried about australias future.
Appreciating the video’s awareness of second and third order effects as well as the comments focused on this. Tactics and strategy. It will be interesting to see how China and Germany pivot their economies. Neither place is stupid or incapable. Even with their demographics of which they are fully aware.
Piracy is back on? Embarrassing
Feed this book into a truncated AI model and ask it to show visualization maps of what was predicted vs actual(which is similar due to the research), and to game theory it out in a more real time overview. The day to day is always going to appear super chaotic with this administration but so is an hour by hour trade on the stock market. To game out scenarios wit different current information as it unfolds, more to see the impact change. The Strait of Hormuz for example changes things in the macro like something we haven’t before seen. Not just oil, but so many other essential raw materials. And the petro dollar must be won from an incompetent buffoon of a man, for the US’s sake anyway. Iran has proven to be a highly astute adversary in this mix.
I read the book last year, is there more epilogue?
Like
Talking about your book, which was sitting on the bookshelf in the office, during an interview got me the job I have now.
I was hoping the events predicted in "The End of the World Is Just The Beginning" would play out slowly over time. A glacial process. But the current US admin, like rising ocean temps, is ensuring the meltdown happens in real time. We are not just headed toward a planetary historical inflection point. We are living through it and traveling at warp speed. What a time to be alive!
If you add everything up; climate change, end of economic growth, never ending wars to keep Oligarchs in power. Demographic collapse has actually already begun.
I have all of your books and definitely in "the end of the world is just the beginning" you stated very specifically and very explicitly and cogently at the end is it's ending of globalization, but we don't know what's coming next. I think we're beginning to find out what that is…
Just purchased your Book and thanks for your content, I appreciate your ability of explaining your points of view with the KISS method 👍
The remote ship detention near Sri Lanka is not privateering. Is an American Navy act in an American interest. It will not necessarily lead to privateering by anyone. It is giving the Iranians the only thing they will listen to - more discomfort, more brute force, fewer options.
It is Privateering. The American Navy is Privateering in pursuance of American interests but it's still privateering.
Thanks for the video on this topic! For such a core concept, I would have loved longer than 2 minutes though. While I have the book (which is fantastic by the way) I would have enjoyed an update on how the former allies are evolving this global order. Given the previous video outlining the difficulties with the US projecting power when the global bases are restricted, then imposing US interests at Trump's will would seem to be increasingly problematic. Additionally, the rest of the world has agency - economically and militarily. A rules based system of security and trade is providing significant benefit to them and they appear to be actively working to preserve it. I would love to hear more about why PZ seems to think that the coordinated collective efforts of Europe, UK, Canada, Japan, Australia, South Korea, India, Mexico, etc, etc, aren't enough to retain an evolution of rules based trade. Coordinated regional security preserving open shipping trade still seems intact from what I can see, so would love to hear more on a projected change.
It’s interesting timing for a GOP bill in the house to be put forward on making dual citizenship illegal. The expats are chattering away about it here in the UK. Between that and siezing people’s passports and making them invalid without notice or explanation is tightening the gap for exit. Even if we just stopped unilaterally siezing other nations ships and allowed use of passport with free speech, that would be an improvement under compromised corporate democrats. This is so much uglier. And we are so asking for it. 🙄
The Global Order during the Biden Administration had the US in decline and Russia and China dominating the western hemisphere. Trump reversed that. The US Navy will continue to keep the sea lanes open for the free world to trade.
Please explain....I don't recall Russia or China "dominating" the western hemisphere and I don't understand how Biden caused it.
… and I feel fine.
That song has been playing on loop in my head for the entirety of the 2020s.
If there is a silver lining to this cloud, perhaps it is that the fossil fuel crunch will delay the worsening of the climate crisis a bit.
It’ll sadly mean more coal!
Peter — your deglobalisation thesis models American withdrawal as messy but broadly predictable — an institutional decay rather than an irrational rupture. But what happens to your framework if the variable isn’t just a distracted or declining America, but a cognitively compromised executive with a narcissistic injury and his hand on the scales at the exact moment the system is most fragile? That feels qualitatively different from anything your model prices in. Separately, on Europe’s energy crisis: the Middle East is effectively offline for years, US reserves will be ringfenced for domestic consumption before long, and rearmament is accelerating faster than most people’s mental models have updated. The version of the question I haven’t seen asked publicly is this — not whether Europe fights Russia, but whether a fragmenting Russia creates an energy vacuum that European powers advance into opportunistically, incrementally, under legal and humanitarian cover, the way Europe has historically always done these things. Less Napoleonic charge, more East India Company. Is anyone in serious strategic circles modelling that scenario, and does Russian nuclear doctrine remain a hard stop if command-and-control has already fractured before any advance begins? - absolutely love your work! Tony, UK
100% Tony. France is absolutely positioning for this. I’d like us tied to the EU so we’re a part of that push into Russia as Putin fails rather than on the outside flailing. The US implosion and devolution has been visible for 20 years to me. It’s part of why they’re so churchy. Fundamentalist fervor and reaching for answers just before the pitchforks come out because the legal gaurdrails were removed since trickle down economics - citizens united, Dodd Frank repeal etc. I’m relieved to see Starmer reaching across the channel and aligning with Scandinavia. If we can offer the Russian people a soft landing post Putin, it would be in our collective interest when dealing with the collapse of the US and ambitions of China.
Peter, hopefully you do read these. Have a question. CNN has been nattering on about how China has all sorts of alternative energy going on right now and that they are not feeling a pinch from this war. That sounds like the opposite of what you have said in the past. Could you maybe address this in an upcoming video?
Both things are true. China has "all sorts of alternative energy going on" to the point where they have been installing the equivalent of one nuclear reactor's worth per day in new wind and solar (1 GW). They will also be feeling the pinch big time, especially in commercial and marine transportation and petrochemicals.
I have the book, but haven't read it yet. This all seems to be spearheaded by this incompetent US administration, which was ushered into power by angry, ignorant voters, manipulated by Russian propaganda. Too simple? This can't last. MAGA is fracturing, Russia is on the ropes, and China lacks resources, but there's much more damage to come before they fall from power, IMO. Blue wave, then a new administration that works to undo all the idiocy. Naive wishful thinking on my part?
You are not alone, but similar to a person suffering a serious accident or illness that leaves them substantially diminished, I fear America’s convalecence will be protracted.
Can this be continued without the alliance that is destroyed in today's earlier video?
privateering navy ? you mean pirates?
Yes.
Even if its a small story, could you find some good news to share sometime this week or next? Because man you are downer recently :)
The oil squeeze will accelerate adoption of renewables?
looking at Robert Medhursts recent video, it does look like this is America's last ditch effort to maintain global reserve currency status, moving from the petro dollar to the petro-LNG dollar. Most of the geopolitical events seem to align with this theory... Taking Venezuela, the shadow fleet, Russia production, and now Arab production. So where is everyone going to buy their energy from?! The US is the last game in town and essentially has a monopoly on Petroleum and LNG. A major blow to a two biggest rivals (Russia and China). Add on the military and maritame trade element, and the picture gets even more clear.
US oil is dominant in the global industry at the moment, but there are many other larger reserves that can be built out now that the global economics are different. Additionally, for LNG, there are a lot more sources outside the middle east and US that are currently providing volume.
Is it the end of the global order or just a redefinition? Seems to be you either work with the US or suffer the consequences. It's the system that has always been there just now enforced on the high seas.
So Russia is losing its oil but everyone was up my ass this morning about how Russia is going to conquer Europe because the U.S wants out of NATO? Hmmm again I ask how exactly is Russia suppose to achieve this goal?
After a period of recovery. But it won't happen if/when Europe rearms. Not to say there won't be a war, but Russia could't win it alone.
I already have the book. Would recommend it
Peter, My family and I want to thank you for doing what you do. Your books over the years have given us the context to better understand what we are experiencing today and your daily updates keep it current. Very grateful for all you do.
Yesterday you said America can no longer operate outside their coastal waters…
That was this morning and yes as I commented that’s a widely exaggerated claim he made
Is this report actually true? The last report of a US naval attack near Sri Lanka; a U.S. submarine torpedoed and sank the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena off Sri Lanka’s southern coast on 4 March, killing around 100 sailors and prompting a Sri Lankan-led rescue and recovery operation.
Isn’t this mostly a Trump enforcement choice on top of an older sanctions system, rather than a permanent U.S. break with globalization? The official record clearly supports harder Iran pressure, but it does not seem to show a formal abandonment of freedom of navigation or global commerce.
It’s a break but yes it’s enforcement. Europeans have/will start doing the same. The only ones freaking out are the TDS patients. There still isn’t a cure for it so they are the ones in the comments losing their minds.
How will the other blue water navies react to this development? Will trade reroute to land corridors (e.g. Trans Caspian)?
Yes, the United States led one, that is. But I think a new one is in the making.
Sounds serious. Hope it doesn’t affect the Trump-Epstein Ballroom construction. I’m looking forward to mr T’s national update on this important infrastructure build out project making America great again.
Here for the comments. Stayed for the acidic sarcasm. LMAO
Good thing you got those books printed before globalization collapsed! 😂🤣
We're living interesting times.
I wonder what happens in the medium term as more and more companies are jumping feet first into AI use and using it to trim their workforces by large percentages, and suddenly their aren’t enough chips or electricity to power them. Category 5 shitstorm is no longer just on the horizon, but breaking over all of us.
And especially, good luck trying to power that ai without renewables 😆