Iran War Winners and Losers: North American Energy || Apr. 17, 2026
As Persian Gulf and Russian exports collapse, global prices will rise, which should benefit the U.S. and Canada. However, if exports are halted to keep gasoline prices down, then North America would become oversupplied. This would effectively cap oil prices near production costs, despite the rest of the globe facing shortages and rising prices.
This means the producers wouldn't see much upside, with refiners becoming the only real winners (even though they still have to retool to use that domestic light crude).
Comments (59)
Peter, there is a 2nd pipeline called the Trans Mtn Pipeline Expansion that was finished in 2024 and it is currently carrying 890,000 barrels per day of Tar Sands crude oil from Edmonton, Alberta to the West Coast. So there are two pipe lines to exporting Alberta oil to Vancouver and to the Asian markets.
Well, you've been right about everything so far, so ...
$150 oil will cause a worldwide depression which would be very deflationary.
Trump has a laser pointer in the Oval Office. In meetings he uses it to point out furniture. He is especially proud of the gold leaf he added.
Maybe it'll be good to have colonized Venezuela's thick crude...? 🫣🍿
A couple of points - First, big "if" Trump prevents exports. Otherwise, global price (futures) determines barrel price for current sale contracts. Second, not all US oil production is shale. Permian Basin is still the major producer that fracks vertical (10,000ft) wells. Third, when oil prices go up, everyone else in the supply chain raises their prices too (transport, rental, supply, etc.) so net is less than you'd think.
This is the only time I've ever thought you were wrong. So I gotta comment, if you think Trump is capable of signing that and stopping US exports of crude, isn't it equally possible he is capable of refusing to sign it? He's going pretty crazy these days and is on his way out and getting older. Maybe he would prefer to see his oil buddies get rich as hell
WRONG😂
What would the new energy market look like for Brazil?
Sounds to me like you are saying Trump is a demented fuckwit determined to bankrupt the world economically and morally.
And he's doing an excellent job of it.
Please include an assessment of Venezuela's potential, plus Guyana. These may be a couple of years away but could supply the Gulf coast refineries and the international markets even if US production is quarantined to the US. The major US/Western oil companies look set to benefit in any scenario... And, aren't there additional options in Western Africa and Libya?
Whew, for a second there I thought Peter was going to saw something positive about America
Cheap energy selectively in the US will drive a massive reshoring of all energy intensive industries better than any other program ever could, I think it's part of the plan. PZ lays out all the reasons to buy DOW and PBR; set and forget.
Said the 4D chess theorists. Or perhaps it’s just dumb random outcomes from a completely unqualified commander and thief.
Small request, could you please not hike at 5 miles high whilst explaining the whoas of the world? Thanks
Why do you care?
Something I posted today to a forum elsewhere: California's problem is mainly one of geography, it being an "energy island" with no fuel transport from North American production in the Gulf of Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, the Dakotas, etc. The one self-inflicted damage California's state government has so far caused the state is forbidding access to suspected large shale oil fields in Kern County. The lack of overland transport has been an infuriating product of domestic politics: Any proposed pipeline gets opposition, and a demand for a piece of the action, from states and counties it would cross. This latter problem seems likely to be addressed by a proposed Western Gateway Pipeline, to be built by Phillips 66 and Kinder Morgan, but it cannot come online before 2029 at the eariiest. The pipeline would be 1300 miles long, and able to move 200 Mb/d of refined products. https://westerngatewaypipeline.com/project-details
The more likely scenario is a cap on exports, rather than a ban. The cap can be designed and adjusted to keep prices at the optimum level for Trump Donors.
TANSTAAFL.
Not one of my favorite Peter posts. You're saying that Trump is certain to slam the door on US crude exports to help win an election? No way; that's a 50/50 proposition AT MOST. This premise is based on a conventional apprehension of how most politicians operate, and that Trump needs low oil prices to win an election. Even in his state of major cognitive decline, I don't think Trump thinks that way. He knows he's in tough but he just needs to maintain enough of his coalition to keep it close. And if he can't rig the midterms and is facing impeachment again? No biggie. He'll have raked in billions from the MANY bribery channels he's created while in office (including payola from oilpatch execs in exchange for keeping US energy exports open) that he can afford to file appeal after appeal to fight off all the lawsuits and keep taking cases all the way to his hand-picked supreme court. And with enough $$ in your pocket, there's always ways to deal with those pesky witnesses for the prosecution... And remember that he's got a MASSIVE media machine on his side (Fox News, Newsmax, Christian Nationalist influencers, and an army of Russian trolls) to help him sell the message that the prices at the pumps "aren't that high." So, he has no shortage of confidence that he can distract enough of the American electorate from the fact that his legislation only makes the rich richer and everyone else poorer. Just shout "drill, baby, drill" loud enough and you can make enough of them forget about all that. Can he actually pull it off? With the way he's polling now, that's certainly open to debate. But with loyalists spread throughout the government and nothing but lapdogs and sycophants around him to reinforce his delusions, why wouldn't he stay the course and keep getting his palm greased?
Maybe our Dear Leader will ban exports, maybe not. You could go broke very quickly betting on what he would or would not do -- except when it comes to expecting him to do whatever it takes to enrich himself, which is a 100% sure thing.
All of which accelerates the replacement of oil with other forms of energy every where but the US.
I was thinking the same thing. China is going to be the nuclear power capital of the world. Or maybe they just annex north and take Siberia and everything east to the sea. In a way, a better idea than trying to capture Taiwan which, without TSMC, is just a small island dependent on outside resources. A variation of an old Tom Clancy novel.
Fools keep upping their ante by assuming an arrogant narcissist cannot be smarter than they are, have more data than they do and have more strategic wisdom gained from actually doing, building and negotiating, thus confirming they are actually fools. The hatred for Trump emanates from him calling out such fools. “Yes..but..but”
Good to know! Thanks!!!
calling bs on the snide pipeline remark re transmountain....its working so well that an additional expansion of 300,000 bpd are planed for 2028, bringing total export capacity to 1.16 mill bpd .
Up in the air right now with SO many hurdles to overcome. Trans Mountain right now is having issues with decreased flow and a lack of shipping to the ports.
Hey Peter, when are you going to talk about the fall of Orban and the implications for Europe, NATO and the Trump administration ?
I received a notification and a thumbnail screenshot of his Hungary/Orban video while I was in Italy a few days ago (right after the election), but I couldn't access it and can't find it...really strange. I'm hoping it pops up on YouTube soon.
USA sounds like a winner to me on this in the short and long terms.
I think it depends on what you call a "winner". Certainly from a world leadership perspective, it is the Big Loser!
Ah, but Peter has forgotten a crucial bit of information… with the Trump administrations recent attack on Spain and the pope the United States should expect the Spanish Inquisition soon
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!
America needs to build lots of tea pot refineries. They are relatively quick and easy to build, see China.
Canada too. Maybe environmental regulations in the way...
What!! No doom and gloom today? I'm going into withdrawal. OMG, did our dear leader really have a plan, or was it dumb luck? Hey, don't we own Venezuela now? Even better. I still believe he is a Narcistic child, though. I must have chronic TDS. 🤪
Texas refineries are tooled to run on Venezuelan (Canada) crude... so, not seeing a problem here...
Yes, those gulf refineries are tooled to take Venezuelan crude, but there is still a BIG problem with that assumption. Trump expected parades down the streets of Houston in exchange for handing the Venezuelan oil industry to the US-based supermajors for them to "revive" overnight. Instead, the heads of those companies smiled politely, looked him in his beady little eyes, and gave him the thing he can't stand: the truth. They explained that, even with US sanctions lifted, the Venezuelan oil industry is in a state of absurd disrepair and disarray. At its peak in the mid‑2000s, Venezuela produced roughly 2.4–3.0 million bpd. Today, despite some modest recovery, production is still only about 800,000–900,000 bpd, with Orinoco‑Belt fields operating at WELL below capacity because of corroded pipelines, aging refineries, and chronic power and diluent shortages. In response, Trump threw a tantrum and then did what he does best when confronted with inconvenient facts: He plugged his ears, yelled "ya ya yaaaa," and went skulking off to his next headline-hogging, flood-the-zone media distraction. US sanctions are still a big reason why the state-owned energy company, PDVSA, continues to struggle mightily (no, Trump still hasn't lifted some of the most onerous ones), but any talks between US and European majors about investing in the Venezuelan oil industry are still preliminary. Despite Trump's big show, the Maduro regime is STILL there; it's just Maduro that's gone. And this is a regime that nationalized foreign oil industry assets before. Would you want to sink more capital with those guys still running the show? Personally, I agree with the growing faction of observers that say this was NEVER about oil. It was about whisking Maduro away to a 4-star resort--ERR--US prison to have MAGA Thought Police coach him to be Trump's October surprise in the midterms, where he'll claim that he was part of a vast socialist conspiracy to rig voting machines in the 2020 US election. Absurd? Yes. But it might still be good enough to re-energize the conspiracy wing of the MAGA base.
$10 a gallon is a stretch considering how many tracking Wells can come on line
The beneficiaries of this have been the oil companies. The price at the pump as of the beginning of the conflict is artificial. That gas has been refined and in the country for quite a while. So, why is it expensive? Because the oil companies have an excuse to raise the price on something that was obtained at the old price. Eventually, in a number of months, the oil will cost more (driven up by GLOBAL demand)...and be as expensive as the pumps now reflect. But in the interim, the oil companies will have made some record profits...all the while, they "were forced" to raise the price to offset extra costs.
Yep, time to bring back the windfall profits tax.
I don’t quite understand how this would work in practice. Can’t U.S. refineries still export product? If that’s the case, how does that keep prices low?
I believe that was what he said. Trump would suspend crude exports, but we would still be able to export refined products. Did I miss something? Haven't filled my morning caffeine intake yet.
Wave a white chicken at the sweet stuff and Shazam, gasoline
“Existential Threat”. Listen carefully for those words, or their substantial equivalents, in the rhetoric of world leaders. Especially the dictatorial ones, who are already having oil issues. If your people are dying in place, it isn’t a big leap to put them in uniforms, and send them to your neighbors, and die in *their* place, instead. And who knows, if you win, maybe you get some more oil, and a few less citizens who need it. Amoral Practical Cynicism: 101
Considering the success of the Ukrainians in dealing with the Russian aggression. Europes need for transportation fuel… I’m wondering if Europe can theoretically electrify their transportation fuel market, and the eastern expanse of Europe could be aggressively expedited with the help of economies like Germany and France in particular to secure controls of Russia’s natural gas reserves. We have been talking about the theoretical impact of a strong German military for a while, Germany is terribly afraid of human casualties if they can “simply” send land and air based drones towards Moscow and secure their future, I as a former east German would consider this a very sensible decision. Especially after Russian aggression towards Ukraine. If fuel needs, and Russian aggression can be resolved without major losses of German lives… this math works. I would not want to be living near Moscow these days, things have a lot of room to get much worse.
Where would that electricity come from?
Its almost as if using the Iran war to destabilize the global energy market was apart of the US plan
You give them too much credit
You didn't mention Venezuela. Seems to me they also have the heavy sour variety.
Yes, the Gulf produces a lot of oil and oil product. But, it's not the only place. In general, the capitalist system will make the necessary adjustments to supply and demand. Since there's so much of it, oil, around, I don't sense the price can stay sky high forever. Actually, $3 gasoline is extraordinarily cheap. $5 gas isn't really all that bad in the scheme of things.
The Europeans are used to high gas prices. Here, not so much. They have something called "Public Transportation."
Canada tried a Made in Canada oil price. It sowed the seeds of today's separation debate. Watch what you wish for!
2 days ago there were news a Democrat, Ko Rahanna, was to introduce bill to stop US gasoline exports already. How likely is an energy export ban if this goes on? Pretty sure Polymarket will open a poll about that soon… Trump administration a month ago said it wasn’t considering it, but Trump is not the most consistent president. I think it’s 50-50 he might just issue a ban, kind of like Biden did with LNGs. If this happens world looses a total of 35% of oil and refined product. That can easily double-triple the prices again everywhere else, especially Europe. If this happens, many countries that have military power to go snatch oil from neighbors, might just consider doing that. For starters, I think France, Italy could go for Northern Africa and Turkey can go for Northern Iraq. Turks job is easier as it’s a land border and there already is an oil pipeline, they already have military presence in the region too. It’s a different world, one where prosperity and peace goes away sadly, and Peter predicted it all.
Sounds like it’s going to be great for the Nigerians? https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/nigeria-turns-petrol-exporter-for-first-time-as-dangote-refinery-cuts-imports/elxhzmb
And Brasil and Guyana and Trinidad
don’t be super anti trump please! too much is too much
Trump better stop making such terrible, severely ill-advised decisions if you want analysts to be less anti-Trump