Guam and the Practical Impact of Climate Change || Apr. 16, 2026
I normally do not attempt to link climate change to local events, but current storms in the central Pacific demand we take a fresh look.
Guam is a critical military base for projecting U.S. power across Asia. Guam's strategic power comes from its location, but that leaves it subject to extreme weather. And climate change is causing the frequency and intensity of major storms to increase. This could eventually lead to Guam being periodically unusable or even permanently untenable.
Climate change isn't just an environmental issue; it is a strategic consideration that everyone needs to have on their radar...including the U.S. military.
Comments (38)
That would be "Marianas", not Marineras, you saucy boy. 🤣
Martin is correct. You are also not correct about global warming. Stay in your lane as best you can.
You’re way off Peter. Pls do research before expounding. Guan is volcanic based not coral. It’s way above sea level. The civilian airport is 305’ above sea level. Anderson Airforce base is on the north end of the even higher. There’s no flooding. I know you need clicks but you’re way off. The islands are pronounced like tomato sauce. You got this one way off.
When you consider China's Naval reach, do you consider its "military" integration into its very extensive merchant marine? Armed merchant ships used in raiding and piracy is nothing new, and as China often thinks out of the American "box" (way of doing things), doesn't this have a potential for China's extended reach you often dismiss?
"As of April 2026, China is experiencing significant strain and rising costs in its oil supply due to the conflict in Iran and the resulting disruptions in the Middle East. " -- research of the facts. China will never have the global reach that you think--especially with its oncoming demographic collaspe. China has about 8 years left. By 2034, China will launch a war to distract the citizens from this devestation--while also launching it for other reasons too. China's war will effectively trigger WW3.
Ok/ I don’t think Peter has ever been to Guam nor have most of you. It’s not like midway or the Chinese coral reef islands. It is hilly and mountainous. Highest point: 👉 Mount Lamlam — 1,332 ft (406 m) (Fun fact: from ocean floor to peak, it’s one of the tallest mountains on Earth) • Lowest point: 👉 Sea level (0 ft) • Average elevation: 👉 ~300–400 ft across the island
That’s what I was thinking also- the Air Force base is well above sea level
This is not just a problem for the US. What about the artificial islands the Chinese have built in the South China Sea? Seems like these places would be like a sand castle on the beach compared to real islands like Guam.
Well, I am an expat Yank living on this little island called Australia. And if President Trump would stop pissing all over the Prime Minister of Australia and its people maybe they could project more power from this little island. Last time I looked we were pretty close to China and Japan, etc.. There are plenty of us here already up and Darwin and other spots around Australia but maybe even Australia might accept more if President Donnie played nice
The point with Guam is that it belongs to the U.S., Australia does not. The U.S. can project power from Guam without a treaty. Treaties, we are learning from the actions of the idiot in the White House, are fragile and frangible things. Don't get me wrong, I love Australia. But I don't see it as a way for the U.S. to replace Guam. The U.S. may now be losing its base in the Indian Ocean (Diego Garcia) since it is owned by the Brits and they are summarily giving it away to a country (Mauritius) with which Diego Garcia has no historic ties.
Maybe you could do a tipping point discussion to include the dissipation of the AMOC?
Perhaps the navy needs some of these. Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading (FPSO) units are floating vessels used by the offshore oil and gas industry to process, store, and offload hydrocarbons, particularly in deepwater or remote fields. Acting as mobile, self-contained production facilities, they eliminate the need for costly long-distance pipelines and are reusable across different locations. These would not drill but would accept crude oil from a standard tanker.
Midway?
There are several steps between permanent flooding and leaving. The United States still has excellent civil engineering technology. Land raising could be used for existing air fields and naval bases. For that matter, a new air field could be constructed inland near the Naval Magazine. On top of that, any future American architecture in Guam should use the Filipino model of simply expecting the bottom floor to flood every year. Make sure the bottom floor is made of concrete – no carpeting – and get out the squeegee every time it floods. Although global warming bites, humans are very adaptable. So, let's adapt.
Peter...marinara is red sauce. Guam is part of the Mariana Islands,a 14 island archipelago that includes Saipan
Also not located in the Southern Pacific. Guam is about 13.5N latitude.
Check out Garrison Creek Winery while in Walla Walla
How about Pearll Harbor? Or is that too far NE?
Submarine with ucav launch capabilities...
Supertyphoons are so devastating that my home away from home the Philippines was hit back in 2018 (Ulanda) and still is flattened. Filipinos generally recover in 6-9 month from normal typhoons, but these are so destructive the sheer Palm trees like a chainsaw. Guam will be a mess for years.
(A different Mike) - Peter, are/were you speaking at Whitman College?
If you want to make your own supercompter simulation of climate all you need is 6 feet of string and 6 washers. With that you construct a driven 3 beam pendulum. Look that up on the YouTube. Good luck raising crops never mind shipping them.
Read Roger Pielke on the lack of a statistically significant trend in Atlantic basin hurricane intensity when the full length of available data is included. Is the Pacific record different?
The fire chief says the fire is on the third floor. Pielke says it's floors two through four. The building burns at the same rate either way. People see disagreement — and stay where they are.
Things looking like we’re gonna have a super El Niño by the end of the summer im getting a bit nervous. Trumps war has disrupted so much fertilizer and diesel fuel production that we were already projecting a slight decline in production. Put on top of that farm bankruptcies at a 40 year high from Trumps war on farmers we will have fewer farmers to respond to the looming crisis. On top of all of the administration has never been good at responding to natural disasters. Could be in for a brutal few years
invent naval warfare?? omg PZ has not understood the severity of climate breakdown, do you know the movie waterworld with kevin costner? this is going to be what is left of naval power projection ;-) if we are really lucky
No worries, China is building arks in the Himalayas to save humanity, or we'll adapt as Kenin Cosner did. Keep an eye on the kids' toes.
projecting power will be the least of or problems....
Someone hasnt eaten yet: The Marinaras?? Saucy!!! (The Marianas are the islands, marinara is the tomato-based sauce! Now back to the election returns from Hungry and the rise of Turkey...
I have zero issues with Mr. Zeihan mispronouncing names on occasion. I do it way more than most. But when he makes me hungry for breadsticks while drinking my coffee... that's gone a step too far.
If you really care about the survival of the species (all of them incl. humans) and esp. your friends and family and that includes also security and military than stop flying, restrict your consumption on all levels
People like you are really easy to manipulate
weather is what happens daily in any region also anywhere on earth, climate is the average of those weather patterns over 30 yrs
Peter and team, can you address the chinese blockade of the Scarborough Shoals? I’m aware they’re fishing vessels essentially and that our navy could “blow them up”…. But do we have assets near and what’s the likelihood of direct engagement? After the US turned away 6 chinese vessels in Hormuz, I can see why they’d take this approach.
Are there any mitigation strategy plans for that?
Can we build an island out of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch?
Great idea. It costs money. The Ocean Cleanup estimates $7.5 billion to clean it all up. And when it comes to using that garbage to build up an island, it would cost time and effort to figure out which atoll could – or should – get built up with that garbage. If the island is inhabited, it would be very difficult to convince local residents that they need their island to be a dumping ground for the world's garbage. Wake Island is a military reservation with its own tiny air force base, so the United States Air Force could theoretically bring in huge amounts of garbage to bulk up that island if need be. If anything, Wake Island's military station would appear to be in more danger of getting submerged than Guam's military bases.
I just got invited to Saipan for an all inclusive vacation the other day too! With Team Rubicon, to deal with Typhoon Sinlaku