The United States Gets Into Privateering || Apr. 12, 2026
The U.S.–Iran negotiations in Islamabad failed completely. The U.S. showed up outmanned and outgunned, with the Iranian extremists showing out in full force. However, President Trump did one of the most significant things of the last year when he said that the U.S. would now blockade the Strait of Hormuz. This effectively ends globalization and freedom of the seas. We'll know in the next few days whether this is implemented, but it could reshape everything.
Comments (83)
Don’t shoot the messenger here. The reality is that DJT has invoked chaos in the Persian Gulf just as he has done in the U.S. who knows what the consequences will be. But it’s very clear that nothing is going to happen as he thought it would. Just like the air strikes failed to “obliterate” Iran’s nuclear and regional proxy fomenting ambitions.
A few more words on how this will evolve would be good. E.g. if the US does open the Strait, maybe the US leaves ships and air force in the region to 'keep it open' - which actually means the US retains the ability to close it to any specific country that has upset Trump. OR, what if the US opens the Strait and then walks away - creating a scramble for control? OR the US appoints a 'caretaker' - maybe Israel or maybe Turkey, shifting the regional power dynamics. OR Trump gets fed up / bored and leaves the Strait, allowing Iran to control it - probably leading to conflict that promptly re-closes it.
The situation is getting worse Tom 😅
Since you seem to have all the answers and solutions, why don't you raise your hand and offer help instead of being another Monday morning quarterback/biased talking head?
Ron, would you subject yourself to the repulsive amount of ass kissing you’d have to do in order to be heard by the dumpster fire our president is? Besides, even if you could endure that degree of shame, he’d forget anything meaningful you proffered.
Finally......Peter is providing analysis within his masterful Accidental Superpower framework.
PZ, good to know that you “don’t want to grab a beer with me” because I appreciate your unvarnished view of our current shitshow and want studied observations, not blather, nor do I want to subscribe to an echo chamber that only reinforces my own opinions. As to the rest I’ll let my fellow subscribers wrestle with distractions like the Pope, MAGA deserters, or the specter of losing our hard earned position as a flawed, but earnest, golden destination for people all over the world looking for a better life.
Administration didn’t do any planning? Are you serious ? Can you just give us the facts without so much anti administration blather. I’m not a huge Trump fan but would appreciate a less biased tilt allll the time
Those US ships are gonna get fucked up by drones. Sorry, they're going to experience "30 hour laundry fires."
Wouldn’t the us trying to open the straights be the opposite of what your saying? I’m not following your logic here
What’s Trump’s “Dream Deal”? A U.S. puppet government in Iran that shares toll revenues?
From what I've seen and heard, the "deal" is an Iran without nuclear weapons and free and safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz, which is, by the way, part of international waters by international law. A third part might be that Iran ceases funding terrorist groups in the Middle East but I'm not sure how high that is on the list. Personally, I think that nuclear weapons should be totally banned.
I’m guessing that Peter predicted the end of globalization lead by the U.S. would be undertaken in a logical orderly manner ie. Build your industrial base, maintain and expand your regional North American supply chain, negotiate with key allies and establish a security plan for key international trading partners…. You know… do shit with a plan.
Shipments of chewing gum have been halted. That means we're out of gum... which means...
NATO fucked up, this would have been much better and easier (especially visually) but NATO country leaders have just as big egos as Trump
Yeah, not with you there dude!
Trump administration listened to your video from March 27 about straight of Hormuz remains open. Looks like they definitely took notes, but now you are turning around and having second thoughts about it?
A Trump "Blockade" is only another band-aid on a hemorrhage Cluster-fuck. Our dear leader-in-chief will continue to throw whatever he can against the wall until something sticks. Eventually, Boots will be needed, IMO. OMG! Do I have TDS?
If the USN guarantees freedom of the seas for those who support our security policy then a blockade is consistent as it denies use to those who won’t support US policy.
How about: "If anyone moves, the sheriff gets it!" We are now in a Blazing Saddles face off.
Oh and does this blockade of the blockade prevent Iran from drone-ing neighbors?
Not a US problem. The neighbors are rich and should be capable of protecting themselves, or buying it.
Globalization in it's pure form is gr8. Corporate dominance of markets, medicine, education, media, entertainment, law enforcement, etc is not...
Without corporations, you wouldn't have those things. Except for law enforcement and that is governmental "service" as a monopoly kept in power by force.
I thought the parallel was Trump and George III. Seems it's Elizabeth I, with her Sea Dogs like Francis Drake and John Hawkins raiding ships on the high seas for treasure.
Zeihan’s logic here is incredibly inconsistent. Not long ago, Zeihan posted a video claiming Trump didn't realize Iran was profiting from the status quo and urged someone to tell the administration to block Iranian and Chinese ships in the Strait. Now that the U.S. has actually taken that exact measure, Iran has been publicly humiliated, forced into the hypocritical position of begging for 'freedom of navigation' just to get the blockade lifted. The strategy is clearly working. Yet, now that his own recommendation has been put into practice, Zeihan is framing it as a disaster and a failure of global order. It seems Zeihan is more interested in criticizing the administration than acknowledging that the very 'mercenary' strategy he advocated for is actually producing results. You can't beg for a blockade one day and then call it 'incompetence' the day it succeeds."
Sorry, I heard him say that this is possibly the smartest thing Trump has done (or the dumbest move if it was just a knee-jerk reaction). To me, this was the only logical tactic after Iran closed the strait to traffic not controlled or authorized by them.
Well the Chinese and Indians are going to be pissed.
I certainly think Iran is capable of a higher pain tolerance than the US. As many have noted this will involve China. And India. And the EU. I don’t see any of those countries going head to head with the US Navy, and they don’t need to do so. At some point they’ll pull the plug economically and sell treasuries. The follow on effects of that on the internal stability of the US will 100% reduce our ability to project power. It will be like an amputation to save the rest of the body for sure, but the US holding up global energy is non negotiable. The amount of global collaboration propping up the American experiment is completely overlooked. I have no doubt some are aware, and that is why the reference to Bill Blain above and his substack Morning Porridge referring to chat about selective defaulting on US treasuries has my attention. Yes the world will suffer, but America will implode. Our geography and demographics won’t stop that.
They still will have to buy US controlled oil in Petro-dollars.
Trump administration moves from shooting self in foot to shooting self in dick. The off-the-cuff way he makes globe changing decisions is, well, both catastrophic and just what I expected. This is what government by amateurs looks like and the price our nation will ultimately pay adds daily. Maybe this happens next: A Chinese owned/flagged tanker pays Iran's toll after loading and paying for Iranian oil. It passes through the strait and encounters the US blockade. China owns the ship and its contents and is travelling in presumably open waters. Seizing that ship would usually be considered illegal at best or an act of war against China at worst. Is Trump ready for that? Has he even thought about that? Did Trump just cede the nine dash line to China?
Told ya so. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTqQ_w-FaEA
Seems like he's already given up on the "joint venture" with Iran on setting up a toll booth at Hormuz to make some money taxing global commerce.
Hey Peter, Bill Blain over at "Morning Porridge" says he heard a rumor Trump was thinking about selective defaults on foreign help Treasuries.....have you heard anything about this? Thanks
Just found that. Useful thanks!
Sale the oil to Korea, junk the ship, send the crew to the Philippines . Meanwhile back in Europe - https://www.youtube.com/shorts/9MUjDTsNvr4
A bit convoluted, but interesting nonetheless.
Peter, this post is exactly why I follow you. Buckle up!
The selective enforcement of freedom of seas reminds me of how you can get pulled over for speeding but the speed limit is to low
What do you mean it went on for 21 hours? They sat there for 21 hours😂
what is Trump's plan (seriously) to ensure all the people (close to ~5000) aboard the hundreds of vessels (maybe ~200) are able to remain healthy and Ok ? The trapped crew members become technically 'hostages' in this situation. The only actor who can guarantee humanitarian access is the one enforcing the blockade. Trump
Eh... This is the end of the Iranian regime not globalization and freedom of sea movement. Iran will implode or capitulated like Venezuela and Cuba. You guys really miss the script a Peter didn't think this through as he has such bad TDS that he doesn't see that Irans economy will collapse and starve it they don't negotiate.
Iran doesn’t care about that. I suspect the pressure is instead going to come from China who needs this oil. However, it will be very interesting to see how they respond to this they might choose to escalate against the United States by going back to the rare earth minerals. I don’t think Peter has TDS. Also TDS is a concept is an automatic red flag that you don’t understand politics and listen to too many podcasts. However. I do think that Peter may be jumping the gun here in terms of the scale of impact. It seems to me that he has a predisposition to overreact to the very slight bit of news.
Peter for President!
Why does Peter keep saying silly things like the USN was the only navy to 'survive' WWII????? It may have been the largest but it certainly wasn't the only one.
It was the only one of consequence. The only other navy to survive WWII in addition to the U.S. Navy was the British Navy. At war's end the British Navy was miniscule compared to the U.S. Navy. And the Brit Navy funding was greatly diminished within only a few years after war's end. It could no longer project global power except against powers such as Argentina (Falklands War) and only then because the Argentines couldn't figure out how to properly fuse a 500-pound bomb.
Years ago Peter predicted piracy that included the good old-fashion skull and crossbones type, state piracy wherein governments seized cargoes and privateers (Letters of Marque as in the 1800's.)
Don’t satellites provide a level of accountability that would eventually catch up with these kinds of pirates
2026 is an interesting year, ain’t it? Loads of laughs 😬
Details. Not a total blockade. Only for Iranian shipping. https://www.newsweek.com/centcom-details-us-blockade-iran-after-trump-announcement-11818014
I understand his reasoning, letting Iran make money by letting ships they choose through is bad for the war. If it will work or not remains unclear. If it will cause more problems down the line also remains unclear. Though I do find myself more in support of the idea of blockades for this sort of thing, and also the idea of dropping thousands of Liberators or the modern equivalent on Iran.
What’s the name of that other place that’s like constantly blockaded? Cuba? No, that’s an embargo. Ohhh right, it’s that place that’s probably been systematically depopulated since the last time Kushner “won” at negotiating. https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/4/12/history-of-flotilla-campaigns-to-end-israels-siege-of-gaza
Blocking Iranian ships from profiting makes sense. But this is not an economically viable long term solution. IMO Trump will find some more permanent (darker) alternatives that don't involve Privateering. And while I agree with PZ's excellent predictions on the erosion of globalization and shift in US (Trump) approach. I DO NOT think that this is the end of globalization. It provides far too much benefit to UK, Europe, Canada, Japan, India, Indo-Pacific countries, etc. That's a powerful coalition with impressive collective naval forces and trade. The Strait of Hormuz is a lost cause, but that doesn't extrapolate to the rest of the global oceans. Trump will have to limit chaotic activity to this war and the 'Gulf of America' region. Otherwise the US will lose access to international bases, have trade limitations and isolationism will change from a choice to an imposition. By example, China's navy stays local because imperialistic tendencies are not globally acceptable.
Arrrrggg.
Smartest? Is thuggery smart? I would say it's more obvious than smart if you're the biggest bully in the room. I would also say that the only change here is moving from slightly covert thuggery, with the CIA and such, to overt thuggery. Let's be honest, GWB was first to pop that cherry with the 2nd Iraq war. But his cabinet was packed with Necon globalists, so the order remained intact. America has been isolationist before; but not isolationist and overt bullies. We'll see how long the world is willing to put up with our shit. Pulling out of NATO and the UN, as Trump and team are want to do, is daring the world to form a coalition against us. GOOD TIMES!
The Trumpies have no idea how much they are weakening this country.
@Peter: You absolutely did call it. I remember years ago when you were talking about exactly where we are right now. It's uncanny. Well done on the prediction. I just wish it wasn't so grim.
Wow. I’m very surprised at the vitriol that your analysis spawned with your viewers. Understanding the logic underpinning it does not take a degree in rocket surgery.
😂
PZ can you help clarify: The US walking away and letting other countries deal with the straight is the end of US maritime authority, BUT now the US is effectively taking over the straight to reopen AND your saying this is the end of US maritime authority if im understanding you correctly... I suspect I've misunderstood something...can you help me out here? Thx for all you and the team do!!!
So. Right now, my understanding is that the US is not blocking ALL ships but only the ones coming from Iranian ports. If that is the case and especially if active protection of those other ships, this could turn out well. Provide at least some cover for the Gulf States. Tit for tat, against Iran. This might result in some real progress AND it could be a favored stance. Also, I understand that Trump is encouraging buying US oil, or at least, that from the Americas. If that is the case, we might see a win-win-lose for the US, the world, and Iran.
Oil is a worldwide commodity. U.S. produced oil doesn’t automatically stay in the U.S. it’s sold to the highest bidder.
I bet the Europeans, Middle Easterns and Asians gets pissed off by what Trump is doing blockading the strait of Hormuz for everyone. 🤷♀️🤷🤷♂️
Wow, I am kind of blown away at your wild extrapolations. What I see is that we went in to defang an enemy and a few weeks short of the finish line we gave them a chance to surrender early which they declined and so now the bombing will recommence. The result will be that Iran and its network of proxies will no longer be a threat to anyone - not entirely disarmed but to weak to project power. Meanwhile the Iranians have the minimal wherewithal necessary too interrupt the strait, and so the Donald seems to have decided he will address that as well. You say things like "the military never expected problems in the straight" or "we never had clear objectives going in" and these things are just plain false. As I see it right now we are on schedule for a roaring success but it ain't over yet. I could be wrong and so could you, but I am just looking at the measurable successes so far and our overwhelming force in the region whereas you seem to just think the US is the gang that couldn't shoot straight and you give them no credit for anything achieved so far. Yes we killed the upper Iranian ranks and maybe you're right that the lower ranks are more hardline, but who cares! The upper ranks were a problem and had to go, and if the lower ranks prove to be one too, then we need to take them out too.
It's incredible to me that someone with such an out of touch opinion as your own could have ever found PZ's podcast. The USA is losing this war by a wide margin. It has not achieved any of its war objectives (to be fair, Trump had no war objectives because, well.. you know). 1) The IRGC still control Iran. 2) They still hold nuclear material. In addition to failing to achieve all objectives, the USA is now in a worse position than it was before the war started: 1) Traffic through Hormuz was flowing before the war. Now it is not. 2) All of the US allies in the region have taken significant hits from Iranian attacks. Every one of our allies in the region are suffering militarily and economically. 3) The US - allies relationships have been eroded further. 4) Maybe the most damning, our image as the world police and protectors, ie: "the good guys" is now shattered. We have become a navy of pirates who are no better than the enemy we chose to pick a fight with. I don't know how you cannot see what is plainly in all of our faces. All I can think of is that you are exactly the kind of person in the 1930s who would have enabled a grave rise of terrible leadership that ultimately destroyed several countries for generations. You are brainwashed by the likes of foxnews. You are in a cult. Wake up.
You predicted in one of your latest books, "The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning," that globalization was dead and dying: it seems this is coming true. In your predictions (to paraphrase), you said that, with globalization dying, we didn't know what was coming next, but it would be vastly different from what we had experienced over the last 70 years or so. It appears your predictions are coming true, but it certainly isn't good for us as a species, is it? I do find it moderately amusing that, even though you predicted all this, you still have a fair amount of surprise and discomfort at how things are panning out, which is completely understandable. For the rest of us, it's buckle up and stay frosty because we aren't gonna like a lot of this.
Not only this but Peter even wrote, US even had good reasons to be the disruptive force instead of its absence ending globalization as it’s the worlds largest oil exporter now. That’s why I think, maybe Trump just wants this, he wants Gulf competition to go away, while posing like he is trying to solve the issue and open the gulf, maybe he wants further disruption in the region. I mean Venezuela question with worlds largest oil reserves is also kind of solved with replacing the president with one that aligns well with US behind the curtains. Timing of that operation isn’t lost on me.
It looks like Peter does not remember (he is not alone) about the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), where the US representatives, including the then Secretary of State John Kerry, participated in face-to-face meeting with their Iranian counterparts.
Thanks for the last third of this video. As far as the first two-thirds, this is why I cancelled my Patreon membership. If I wanted shrill, 15-year old subjective assessment of Trump's plan or lack of plan I'd watch CNN. I expected a higher level of professionalism when I signed up a couple weeks ago after rewarding your book. Instead I've gotten a name-calling, I'm-smarter-than-you adolescent desperate for approval. Shut this thing down, get some therapy, and come back stronger man. You're better than this.
Here’s a question for you PZ. Are we to believe your propaganda or the Whitehouse and DOD?
Peter is not running for election so I'm believing what he speaks of.
Don’t agree with us being in this war and have been wondering why Iran still got water commerce. if Trump follows through, this may be the card that brings this mess to a close.
The value of a US passport continues to decline thanks to the Trump Regime.
This was not a humiliating strategic defeat at all, but a rare species of victory
Cato from Rome, season 1!
Maybe he was listening to you.
Coming from little ole New Zealand where 99%+ of our exports travel by sea, these truly are interesting times.
Hydrogen airships back a comeback but for international freight. Not sure it would help for goods like crude oil, the volume would be too low, unless you have a long chain if them
He also mentioned that any ship on the high seas that paid a toll to Iran would be seized. I'm trying to figure out who is the worst violator of international freedom of the seas.
For the shadow fleet, would the owners actually lay a charge. Not sure of the legal status in international waters, but if the cargo is illegal within the jurisdiction, their complaint could lead to them getting arrested.
And here I thought this was a nice, quiet weekend. 😂🤣
History has come full circle. We are now the British Empire. Columbia rules the waves.
I feel more like we are Rome 350 AD.