The Energy Crisis: Downstream Impacts || Apr. 8, 2026
The global energy crisis has moved from theoretical to very real. As the last shipments sent before the war begin to arrive, we are now hitting a turning point in the energy crisis.
Rationing and black markets have already sprung up in Asia. Some countries have found ways around the shortage (for now), but that has created new issues for others. The Europeans will feel the heat in the coming weeks, as oil from both the Gulf and Russia disappears.
The U.S. has also lifted sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil that is already in transit, temporarily easing shortages, but undoing years of work to limit export income for these countries.
Comments (37)
And once again, a week has changed things - no more Iranian oil is getting out, and the the temporary lifting of sanctions on Russian oil (to limit global oil prices) are officially back in place. Honestly Peter, it's cool if you want to hate Trump, but don't let it cloud your analysis. These changes were both quite predictable.
*Trump's energy crisis. As J. Stalin once said, "every mistake has a name and a surname", this one even has a color, it's orange.
Haven't heard any info on north sea oil... where that goes, who uses it. I assume with sky high oil prices the north sea producers are doing fine.
Only Trump is dumb enough to get played this badly.
Bonus video? Really? I didn't get a regular video today, that I pay for as a subscriber. So how is this a bonus video? Just want to know if I missed anything...
Apologies, we had a typo in the title. The bonus video was sent later in the day. - Kyle (Marketing Guy)
Doesn't NZ get most of their refined fuel from South Korea and Singapore? China is NZ's largest import, sure, but not for fuel, no?
New Zealander here. We have no rationing and reasonable supplies. We do not get our supplies from china. Peter clearly this is a big issue, but you are overstating it here anyway. Is it because of Donald?
@peter: China has heavily invested in solar and other green types of energy. Despite the fact that you seem to dislike them, how much does this soften the energy crisis for them?
Would imagine that this oil shortage has also proved a boon to the Chinese photovoltaic market (for exports). Don't they also make wind turbines?
Could this administration get any stupider? Do we need any more evidence of who's 'side' trump is on??
Trump -- making everyone else (Iran, Russia, China, etc.) except America great again. 🤷♂️🤷🤷♀️
Great information and insights as usual.
Everyone loses except maybe Israel, because Iran was degraded, although now they can rebuild with toll revenue. For the USA, a strategic own goal of Suez Crisis proportion.
That trilling redwing has a lot to add.
It is not clear to me that Iran agreed to anything, the requirement to "coordinate with Iranian military" to sail through (the "toll booth") is still in effect. I expect to see a rush to escape from the Persian Gulf, with nobody except Iranian allies sailing back in (through the toll booth).
Hey man, first time commenter, thanks for your work. Is there any truth to the story that claims that the Strait has never truly been closed, the ships are just turning off or spoofing their AIS and painting the tops of the ships to mask satellites. If true that would mean that countries with close ties to Iran (China) have been fine. The claim is that by relying on AI the west doesn’t actually know what is going on in reality.
Name the source of your story. Where did you hear/read/see this? What platform, blog, website was it?
Trump's a Russian/Iranian asset!! (even tho they're losing)
And besides the fertilizer and aluminum shortage there's this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSxihhBzCjk
So, if a dozen or more ships are getting through the Strait does that suggest that there are few mines than the US thinks there are? If so, what is the underlying problem?
The mines really aren’t the problem, the issue is the drone attacks and the insurance companies do not want to be on the hook for such risk. From what has been leaked, the Pentagon knew all of this was an issue, told the president and the cabinet that this would happen and they all said the Pentagon was overreacting. When Trump started his war, he did not have enough of the US Navy in position to prosecute something of this scale… He and his cabinet are very stupid people.
PZ books are refreshingly apolitical in this current outrage culture. In his books, PZ even frequently states the relative irrelevance of political parties when set against the larger and stronger forces of geopolitics and demographics which have for millenia shaped human civilization against their broader and indomitable influences. Now, though, it seems like each video devolves into some level of MAGA bashing or Trump bashing, which goes counter to the way PZ was previously dispassionate about such temporary political realities. I hope that he steps back into that educator role again, back above the political fray that he so clearly stated mattered less than the geopolitics. Otherwise, he seems to risk being yet another talking head defined by an obvious agenda bias, and we already have way, way too many of those. I would personally like to hear more from the PZ who wrote the books. That PZ encourages me that these crazy days will pass forward to a reality that has its roots in geopolitical predetermination, and not in the current political mayhem.
When the political party is led by a lunatic who is destroying a country, it’s ok to speak out. Did it bother you when he said Chavez and Maduro are thugs?
List of Trump domestic and foreign policy failures or “disruptions”. When will MAGA wake up? (That’s a rhetorical question, the answer is obviously never). - Threats to withdraw from NATO - Greenland … need I say more? - Reduced U.S. troop presence in Europe - Proposals to recognize Crimea as Russian - Pressuring allies to limit support for Ukraine - Pausing or threatening to withhold weapons/intelligence to Ukraine - Peace proposals freezing front lines / territorial concessions - Shifts toward rapprochement with Russia / talk of sanctions relief - Redirecting U.S. weapons via allies (new procurement mechanisms) - Cuts or restructuring of civilian foreign aid (USAID closure / aid end) - Public undermining of allied unity over Iran/Strait of Hormuz operations - Birthright citizenship - Unconstitutional executive orders on elections - Education funding freezes - Immigration proclamations and asylum limits - Job Corps and program suspensions There’s more … but really need I go on?? Isn’t that enough?
Yet at the end of the he is still POTUS. The point: Regurgitating his bio accomplishes absolutely nothing.
It's very interesting to watch the alliances and defence conversations occurring in parallel with oil offers and rescues. This is proving some interesting clarity in the Indo Pacific/East Asia.
Over there it always boils down to oil doesn't it?
I'm curious if the lifting of the sanctions on Russian oil means that the shadow fleet are now insurable (and therefore not needing to be 'shadow'). Or can countries still swoop in and arrest their tankers, seizing their assets?
Marine insurance underwriters typically have a limited amount they can underwrite - so in a market with high demand, I can't see marine insurance underwriters prioritizing shadow fleet over conventional ships. Particularly if they're poorly maintained and the rules could change on sanctions again at some point.
And then: Ceasefire! Have no idea how that will go. However, oil price is crashing this morning.
If only also we had known beforehand to short oil and buy equities.
What about 2 week ceasefire in term of European energy, does Europe get a break? Or will there be no exports from the gulf region anyway because of the damage done?
he said at the end no tankers will move into the strait of hormuze again
Came here to see Peters input on the US and Iran cease fire
We'll probably get something later today as a bonus video after the team has been able to dig through and analyze some of the details.
I don’t think the price of petrol dropping below bout $3.50 a gallon will resolve the American energy problem. We still have like 2 more years before maybe a peaceful transition of power and I’m afraid my internal organs will quit unless change happens.