Winners and Losers of the Iran War: Ukraine and Russia || Apr. 6, 2026
The Iran war has slashed oil exports from the Persian Gulf, creating a global supply shortage that's just starting to hit markets. As prices are driven up and broader economic impacts unfold, winners and losers will begin to emerge.
Russia was enjoying the boost in oil revenues until Ukraine took out a chunk of its energy infrastructure with drone strikes. And those strikes don't look like they'll stop anytime soon. Russia's support for Iran is also garnering political backlash that will weaken Putin's long-term position. Ukraine is emerging as a winner, as its low-cost drone tech has secured deals with Gulf states to scale production and secure Ukraine's position as a leader in military tech.
The Iran war is reshaping global alliances in ways nobody could have predicted, so we'll continue to explore the winners and losers of this conflict in this new series.
Comments (47)
the biggest piece yet not updated: Orban out💯
The Agent Krasnov turned out to be Agent Krasnov, who would have thought?
Like the US was sending anything to Ukraine since Orange Man took office🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
How do the gulfers manage to flood the market given they cant get the stuff out? do they start insuring tankers
I don't think Peter said the Gulf states would be "flooding" the market with oil and gas. He's referring to the significant amount of cash that they all have available to buy drones and invest in Ukrainian military technology. PS I personally expect the Saudis and Gulf states to invest billions to build more pipelines to export more oil & gas directly to the Mediterranean Sea via Israel and/or Egypt and the Indian Ocean via Oman.
I would like to hear your thoughts regarding what Trump is asking for now compared to what Obama had negotiated and Trump then threw away in his first administration.
this war will last a lot longer than everyone expects, trump should be in prizon now for this.
What keeps Iran from just buying a nuke…..North Korea even Russia. What is wrong with the idea that Israel wanting to blow up the Temple Mount blame Iran by hook or crook
Well for starters if Iran used a nuke on Israel so too would Israel use multiple nukes on Iran, and on North Korea for selling them, and now you have radioactive fallout that would kill hundreds of millions more and make the whole middle east area inhabitable, causing mass starvation and migration issues. Why would North Korea sell any Nukes because you can't use the money if you vaporized!
At what point does the rest of the world join together and take action against this now rogue nation. Bring the fight directly to US borders and remove this dictator. The cowardice and stupidity inside America is clearly not able to contain this wretched human. We've seen how this fake democracy has tried to take over much smaller countries before and failed every time. The hatred is building and there is a special epic fury reserved for traitorous nations.
There isn't a way for any potential adversary to physically invade the United States. Just as there isn't a way to move an American Army brigade or a carrier battle group without being seen.
If the US has cut off much funding to Ukraine as asserted then where is Zelensky getting the "Billions" for these drone deals.
His new customers. It's in the video.
This is all so stochastic as they used to say!
I do hope the silver lining is a stronger Ukraine & a more independent Europe. Could Africa make up the shortfall for European oil and gas imports? The middle corridor for EU-China trade is another interesting development. Russia recently threatened Armenia over getting too cozy with the EU.
There is NO WAY I could have predicted this strange turn in global events. Even Peter admits the same. Ukraine being funded by Arab states? The closing down of the Straits of Hormuz? Russia losing its oil terminals in the Baltics? Cheap drones becoming a war-changing technology? Tom Clancy stuff of imagination.
I would have expected the destruction of Baltic oil production. That was predicated on Ukrainian missile reach and a lack of fear by the Ukrainian’s on the impact of global oil prices. The rest of It is mind boggling.
In terms of energy prices I think most of Europe is at a massive disadvantage. I am afraid, what if Trump starts applying the export limitations and price caps as soon as he realizes Hurmuz isn’t opening anytime soon. Gas prices hit a record high already a bit more can’t be feasible for many different industries.
I kinda thought Gulf oil would fund the war against Siberian oil.
If Trump is "in Putin's pocket", why haven't the Russians won the war or made any advancements? They look weak af.
"Silk purse, sow's ear."
So basically Trump is making everyone (Iran, Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, etc.) else great again except the United States. 🤷♂️🤷🤷♀️
Ha ha ha! But, even that statement is too complicated for the average MEGA.
This deflating of Russia was not on Trump's mind when he started this war. Trump will continue to pal-up with Putin because Vlad has incriminating stuff. Of all the leaders sitting on the top of the world it's our Vlad (Zielinski). God bless him!
Not sure if you were on a particularly difficult trail (didn't appear to be?) but you may want to check your VO2 and bloodox after your illness recently, you sounded a lot more winded than normal.
I got RSV two years in a row. I could hardly breathe deeply for a month afterwards on the last one. Respiratory illnesses suck!
Is Japan going to try seize Sakhalin assets from a weakened Russia?
Not a big surprise for us free market people. We may be shifting to a different international system without an "enforcer" but it is more of a free market. Things will get very interesting.
Let us hope that the old proverb that " It's always darkest before the dawn. " is right.
Peter thank you. Good analysis.
Yes, I do remember the '80! This is, for me, is good news. I'll take this kind of news all week long.
The American style of defense industry is dead Jim. The Ukrainians have developed a fighter launched ballistic missile. Much harder to intercept. Even the Saudis will be able to use it.
Military people always plan and arm themselves to fight the last war they were in. Never works out.
Thanks, as usual. You are not completely over your recent illness, so please be mindful of that!
Once again, Patreon ends the talk EARLY.
Hi Gerard, sending you a DM.
The panting got me today
Gulf money is a really big win for Ukraine.
trumps fealty towards putin shows starker every day. May it continue to backfire...
It seems that all governments are fucked, leaving the only winners being the corporations who no longer need answer to anyone. Welcome to Ferenginar.
I'm truly going to laugh my ass off if it turns out Putin's spies have been been egging this conflict on in order mire the US in another Middle East conflict. #FAFO
Is that not obvious?
Breathe Peter breathe
Sorry Peter i zoned out, can you repeat?
Looking forward to this series, thanks PZ 👍
Can this guy ever get a proper mic? 😂
He's not a couch potato!