March 31, 2026 - Daily News Digest

On this day: in 1492, Ferdinand II of Aragon and Isabella I of Castile sign the Edict of Expulsion of the Jews from Spain, ordering all Jews in their kingdoms to either convert to Christianity or leave the country.

QOTD: “Our strikes are damaging the morale of the Iranian military, leading to widespread desertions, key personnel shortages and causing frustrations amongst senior leaders,” Hegseth said at a briefing on Tuesday, adding that “regime change has occurred” in Iran.

US/WORLD/TRADE - US Sees ‘Limited Role’ for WTO After Ministerial Meeting Yields Little
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-03-31/wto-and-ministerial-conference-in-cameroon

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer sounded both vindicated in his long-standing doubts about the World Trade Organization and displeased that some of his counterparts from around the world were no-shows at the 14th ministerial gathering known as MC14.

Those were among the messages in a USTR statement issued late Monday, less than 12 hours after the Geneva-based WTO announced that the clock expired after four days of talks yielding no major breakthroughs. Not even a 28-year-old pact Greer called “the lowest of low-hanging fruit” — extending a ban on e-commerce tariffs — could be renewed.

Named in 1998 at the dawn of the digital age, the accord is known as the moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions and it’s been renewed every two years since. The US wanted it to be made permanent, while others pushed for another two to five years.

In its statement, USTR blamed Brazil and Turkey for blocking a compromise measure that had the support of 164 other members.

With no extension, the moratorium lapses Tuesday and the WTO’s credibility suffers a big reputational setback in the eyes of one of its founding members.

ASIA/ENERGY/IRAN/MIL - Asia barters for scarce energy as Iran crisis throttles supplies
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/asia-barters-scarce-energy-iran-crisis-throttles-supplies-2026-03-31/

Indonesia's leader visited Tokyo this week in Asia's latest flurry of fuel bartering efforts to offset crippling shortages caused by conflict in the Middle ​East, a key source of regional energy supplies.

The race for alternatives has hotted up as China, the world's second largest economy, imposed fuel export bans, while nations such as ‌South Korea and Thailand try to exploit the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Russian energy as a stopgap move.

Matters are getting desperate for poorer nations as the Philippines became the first to declare a national energy emergency, Sri Lanka cut its work week to four days and rationed fuel, and Myanmar limited car drivers to alternate days.

Southeast Asia's biggest economy and the world's fourth most populous country, Indonesia is also expected to announce curbs in coming days.

"To maintain rational economic ​relationships is of vital importance," President Prabowo Subianto told Japanese business leaders in Tokyo after pacts signed on Monday covering long-term oil and gas and geothermal power projects.

GERMANY/SYRIA/IMMIGRATION/EURO ICE - Germany's Merz says Berlin will work with Syria to return refugees
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/merz-says-syrian-refugees-have-important-role-rebuilding-their-country-2026-03-30/

Chancellor ‌Friedrich Merz said on Monday Germany and Syria would work together to return hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, who he said had an important part to play in rebuilding ​their country.

Speaking after a meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Berlin, ​Merz said many Syrian refugees had made a major contribution in ⁠Germany but that most wanted to return home.

He said around 80% of Syrians in Germany, where some 700,000-800,000 have been seeking asylum, were expected to return to their home country over the next three ​years.

The initial priority would be "those who no longer have a valid residence rights," ​he said, adding that this would especially apply to criminal offenders.

Merz's coalition government imposed tougher controls ‌when ⁠it took power last year, as support for the anti-immigration AfD party surged in the wake of former Chancellor Angela Merkel's decision to admit around 1 million asylum seekers from countries including Syria and Afghanistan.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/ENERGY/MIL - Ukrainian drones strike Russia's Ust-Luga port again, sources say oil terminal hit
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-drones-damage-russias-ust-luga-port-again-governor-says-2026-03-31/

Ukrainian drones on Tuesday struck Russia's Baltic Sea port of ‌Ust-Luga for the fifth time in 10 days, and industry sources told Reuters an oil loading terminal was hit, likely adding to Russia's difficulties in exporting crude.

Kyiv has stepped up attacks on Russia's oil export infrastructure over the past month, ​launching its heaviest drone strikes of the more than four-year war against the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga ​and Primorsk.

At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity has been halted due to drone ⁠attacks, a disputed strike on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers, according to Reuters calculations ​based on market data.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that some of Kyiv's allies had sent "signals" about the ​possibility of scaling back its long-range strikes on Russia's oil sector as global energy prices have surged due to the Iran war.

MONGOLIA/POL - Mongolia names new prime minister following stalemate in parliament
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/mongolia-names-new-prime-minister-following-stalemate-parliament-2026-03-31/

Mongolia's parliament on Monday confirmed Uchral Nyam-Osor as the nation's third prime minister in nine months, following his predecessor's resignation last week over strife within ​the ruling Mongolian People’s Party and a legislative stalemate.

During a parliamentary ‌session on Monday, 88 out of 107 lawmakers voted to appoint Uchral to the coal-rich country's No. 2 post, after the 39-year-old vowed to trim the bureaucracy and stabilise import prices, the ​official Montsame news agency reported on Tuesday.

The outgoing prime minister, Zandanshatar Gombojav, resigned ​on Friday, a move analysts say was a compromise to resolve a ⁠boycott of the parliamentary session by the opposition Democratic Party and a faction ​within the ruling MPP over the past two weeks. Zandanshatar assumed the post in ​June 2025 after Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene was ousted following corruption allegations that erupted into street protests.

Despite the leadership change, political volatility and the impasse in parliament are unlikely to be quickly resolved.

"There is deep ​animosity between the ruling party and the opposition, divide among factions within a party, ​and endless corruption that stokes public discontent," said Xu Tianchen, a senior analyst at the Economist ‌Intelligence ⁠Unit.

ISRAEL/GAZAFICATION OF LEBANON - Israel to destroy 'all houses' near Lebanon border, defence minister says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-destroy-all-houses-near-lebanon-border-defence-minister-says-2026-03-31/

Israel will destroy all homes in Lebanese villages near the border and 600,000 people who fled ​the south will not be allowed home until northern Israel is secure, the defence minister said on ‌Tuesday, vowing to inflict Gaza-like destruction in the area.

Israel Katz reiterated Israeli plans to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, saying that it would maintain control over a swathe of territory up to the Litani River once the war with Iran-backed Hezbollah group ended.

More than 1.2 ​million people have been displaced and another 1,200 have been killed in Lebanon since Israel launched an ​offensive against Hezbollah on March 2, ignited by the group's decision to open fire in ⁠support of Tehran in the regional war.

The Litani River meets the Mediterranean about 30 km (20 miles) north of Israel's border, ​and the area between it and the Israeli border amounts to nearly a 10th of Lebanon's territory.

The Israeli military (IDF) earlier ​this month ordered residents to leave swathes of the south, the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, and the group's political heartlands in eastern Lebanon.

RUSSIA/CUBA/ENERGY/US - A Russian Tanker Tests the Limits of Trump’s Cuba Squeeze
https://www.wsj.com/world/a-russian-tanker-tests-the-limits-of-trumps-cuba-squeeze-bbc7b436?mod=world_lead_story

A Russian tanker carrying 730,000 barrels of oil docked early Tuesday in the northern Cuban port of Matanzas, bringing some brief relief to the fuel-starved island as its economy comes to a grinding halt.

President Trump’s decision to allow the one-time shipment of Urals crude aboard the Anatoly Kolodkin to reach Cuba effectively breaks a two-month blockade that has led to widespread fuel shortages and increased power outages across the country.

Trump, who had previously threatened to impose tariffs on countries that continue to supply the communist island with fuel, said Sunday that he had “no problem” with it. “They have to survive,” he said about Cuba, which he has cast as the next target in his efforts to uproot hostile governments in the region.

The move doesn’t mark a policy change and the Trump administration is deciding on a case-by-case basis, White House officials say. “Cuba’s nonfunctional economy cannot be fixed unless they undergo dramatic political and leadership change,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday.

The administration’s decision to allow the Russian tanker to reach Cuba comes as conditions there could be unraveling faster than Washington expected as it remains consumed by the war with Iran, said current and former officials and people involved in the talks between the two countries. It also follows a nascent U.S. effort to steer fuel and other commercial lifelines to Cuba’s small private sector while bypassing the state.

US/IRAN/MIL - U.S. Drops Bunker Buster Bombs on Iranian Ammunition Depot
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-news-updates/card/u-s-attacks-large-ammunition-depot-in-isfahan-2JHG6jkDzTmvVU7DtKBl

The U.S. hit a large ammunition depot in the Iranian city of Isfahan with 2,000-pound bunker buster bombs, a U.S. official said. A high volume of bunker busters, or penetrator munitions, were used for the strike, the official said.

President Trump posted an uncaptioned video on Truth Social on Sunday night that showed a chain of explosions lighting up the night sky. The video captured the strike, the official said.

U.S. forces have struck more than 11,000 targets throughout the monthlong war on Iran, largely focusing on sites that degrade Iran’s offensive capabilities.

IRAN/ENERGY/SHIPPING/POL - Iranian Parliament Approves Tolls for Strait of Hormuz
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-news-updates/card/iranian-parliament-approves-tolls-for-strait-of-hormuz-gKZ6bry529bQfA5DNiPl

The Iranian parliament approved a plan to collect tolls on vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian state media. The proposal, which was brought before parliament earlier this month, would require agreement from other countries next to the strait. The state media didn’t specify how much the tolls would be.

Iran has effectively closed the waterway—through which about 20% of the global oil supply typically flows—to Western shipping. Vessels associated with the U.S., Israel and countries that sanctioned Iran wouldn’t be able to pass under the new plan, according to Iranian state media.

GIFT LINK: Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-ee950ad4?st=ct5zkW&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.

In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said.

There are also military options the president could decide on, but they aren’t his immediate priority, they said.

Trump on Tuesday morning urged other countries to launch their own operation to wrest control of the strait from Iran, blaming countries like the U.K. for not joining the U.S.-Israeli mission against the Islamic Republic.

“Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” Trump posted on his Truth Social network. “Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”

Over the past month, Trump has expressed various opinions in public on how to handle the strait, part of a larger pattern of giving conflicting goals and objectives of the war overall. He has at times threatened to bomb civilian energy infrastructure if the waterway isn’t reopened by a certain date. On other occasions, he has played down the importance of the strait to the U.S. and said its closure is a problem for other nations to solve.

The longer the strait remains closed, the more it will roil the global economy and boost gas prices. Multiple countries, including U.S. allies, are reeling from the downturn in energy supply that once flowed freely through the chokepoint. Industries that rely on items such as fertilizer to grow food or helium to make computer chips are suffering from shortages.

Without a swift return to safe passages, Tehran will continue to threaten world trade until the U.S. and its partners either negotiate a deal or forcibly end the crisis, analysts say.

Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and vice president at the Brookings Institution in Washington, called ending military operations before the strait is open “unbelievably irresponsible.”

The U.S. and Israel started the war together and can’t walk away from the fallout, Maloney said. “Energy markets are inherently global, and there is no possibility of insulating the U.S. from the economic damage that is already occurring and will become exponentially worse if the closure of the strait continues.”

Trump’s desire to end the war quickly is at odds with other moves he is planning to make. This weekend, the USS Tripoli and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit entered the region. Trump has also ordered elements of the 82nd Airborne and is considering sending another 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East, The Wall Street Journal reported. Meanwhile, he has referred to the war as “an excursion” and “a lovely stay,” yet he is also weighing a complex and risky mission to seize the regime’s uranium, the Journal reported.

US/IRAN/MAGICAL THINKING - Hegseth Says Strikes Causing Iran Desertions as US Pursues Deal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-31/hegseth-says-strikes-causing-iran-desertions-as-us-pursues-deal?srnd=phx-politics

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that diplomatic talks to end the conflict with Iran are “gaining strength” and the US military’s job is to maintain military pressure and compel Tehran to make a deal.

“Our strikes are damaging the morale of the Iranian military, leading to widespread desertions, key personnel shortages and causing frustrations amongst senior leaders,” Hegseth said at a briefing on Tuesday, adding that “regime change has occurred” in Iran.

The comments come as the disruptive war enters its second month, with Iranian threats of retaliation continuing to keep the vital Strait of Hormuz effectively closed — sending energy prices soaring and pressuring the White House to find diplomatic off-ramps.

Hegseth stressed the US’ primary focus now is to negotiate an end to the war with Tehran. He said talks led by White House envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner were making progress.

“They are very real, they are ongoing, they’re active and I think gaining strength, and we appreciate that,” he said.

Hegseth said he made a brief trip over the weekend to visit bases under US Central Command, which is leading the military operations against Iran, and to interact with US personnel in the region. He didn’t give any details about the bases visited, citing operational security.

In the Tuesday briefing, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine said US forces continued to target Iran’s defense industrial base, logistics and supply chains in an attempt to prevent Tehran from creating more drones and missiles — a key war aim.

“The joint force continues to degrade and destroy Iran’s ability to project power and threaten stability beyond its borders,” Caine said. He added that increased US air superiority over Iran has allowed the US to fly B-52 bombers over Iran’s mainland.

Caine indicated that the US ground troops sent to the region, including thousands of Marines and paratroopers, should serve as an incentive for Iran to strike a deal.

“The range of military options that those forces can offer are extensive,” Caine said. “Iran should note that they are out there and that they are a pressure point so they should carefully consider at the diplomatic level.”